Domonic Brown - OF Phillies
Guys like me love guys like this. There's usually a backlash in prospect circles against highly-athletic players. The assumption usually is that that you can't be an elite athlete and and a "baseball player" at the same time. Meet Domonic Brown
It is of course Federally mandated that when discussing an athletic prospect that I mention that his skills are "raw", and truth be told, that much is true. Last year in AA Domonic posted a 25.2% K rate against a 8.5% BB rate in 147 ABs. That's not great of course, even if you can rightfully chalk it up to a 22 year old adjusting to a new level. After all, his rates in high-A last year were 20.2% and 12.1% in 238 ABs. He doesn't chase excessively.
The real take away from his introduction to AA last year was that he hit .303 with those rates. Granted a .355 BHIP% helped quite a bit, but given his level of zone command last year in Reading a .303 average shows some serious contact skills. This year in Reading Brown has fanned 9 times in 35 ABs (25.7%) and walked twice (5.7%) ... and he's hitting .314. He's also slugging .514 and while we are only talking about 35 ABs, the takeaway here is that we may finally be seeing the bloom of what is most in question in Brown's evaluation, his power potential.
His 6-5, 204 frame has been compared to that of Dave Winfield and Darrell Strawberry. I think those are the components of a good mash-up of Domonic. He's closer to Strawberry physically but the pure physicality of his swing is reminiscent of Winfield, or if you are closer to my age, Dick "Richie" Allen. Still, he doesn't turn 23 until September and it's scary to believe there's physical enhancement left to be had. Couple that with the gains he's almost certain to make in zone command, and his existing contact skills, and you have the makings of the contact/power/speed hybrid we imagine lurks in every "athletic" prospect.
I personally think the chances of him developing into a 25/25 player are unusually good (despite the fact I have owned Alex Rios for a very long time) and I'm not sure even that's his ceiling. If he became a 30/25 I wouldn't be shocked.
He will mature physically, he should start to bring the pitcher to him more. Then his increased selectivity will lead to him driving the ball more. The degree to which all that happens will determine whether he hits 2, 3, 4 or 5 in the order. I see him as a productive 5.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - ASeas Lvl AB XBH HR SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG 2006 R 117 4 1 13 9.2 25.6 .214 .292 .265 2007 A- 285 19 3 14 8.5 17.2 .295 .356 .400 2008 A 444 35 9 22 12.4 16.2 .291 .382 .417 2009 A+ 238 26 11 15 12.1 20.2 .303 .386 .517 2009 AA 147 16 3 8 8.6 25.2 .279 .346 .456
Jordan Lyles - RHP Astros
We tried to give you a little heads up about Jordan Lyles lasy July when he was running wild in A ball, putting professional polish on his secondary pitches, and knocking on the door of AA at the tender age of 18.
Lyles is a 6-4/190 right-hander who turned down a football scholarship at South Carolina (WR) to play pro baseball. He was very solid in A ball last year fanning 10.3/9 while walking just 2.3/9 and holding opponents to a .247 OBA with a .349 BHIP%. His 167 Ks were good for second in the SAL.
Jordan is not overpowering. His fastball sits high-80s to low-90s, so he's going to live and die on speed and location, and what he can get out of his secondary pitches.
Lyles throws a good change with tail and depth. He locates his curve, and throws it anywhere in the count. He can add or subtract a foot to his curve to help keep hitters further off balance. All of his secondary pitches benefited from his second pro season. Lyles has cleaned up and smoothed his motion which improved his repeatability, which has in turn made his secondary pitches more dependable and consistent
Right now Jordan has three pitches working and that makes life difficult for any hitter. With the Hooks this year Lyles has posted a 2.30 ERA over his first 15 IP with an 0.89 WHIP and a K and BB rates of 9.1/9 and 1.1/9. Of more interest though is his 1.6 GB/FB ratio so far this year, another important indicator for a pitcher without dominant velocity.
2009 was a very good development year for Jordan, and I'm anxious to see where he is 20 AA starts from now. Along with the gains he's made with the tools he already had, there's every possibility that as a teenager until October Jordan will mature more physically, and that may add a foot to his fastball. It that happens we are talking about a horse of a different color
I graded him out at B- last year. I'm ready to upgrade him a bit this year already and if his physical gains get his velocity in the 93-95 range, we are looking at a good #2 starter. Jordan already owns his control, and his mechanics and secondary pitchers are solid and getting better every outing. Keep an eye on this one.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B+
Seas Lvl W L IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 R 3 3 49.2 3.99 11.6 1.8 0.7 .239 1.09 2008 A- 0 0 5.2 6.35 6.4 11.1 3.2 .305 2.47 2009 A- 7 11 144.2 3.24 10.4 2.4 0.3 .247 1.19
