Jay Bruce:
Bruce is off to a tough start going just 1-12 in the first series against the Cardinals and having struck out 3 times without drawing a walk. I’m a really big believer in Bruce for 2010 and believe the breakout is going to happen this year. After drafting Justin Upton last season only to drop him after hitting .190/.277/.333 with 14 K’s in his first 42 AB’s last season, I’m going to ignore all statistical data on Jay Bruce for the first 6 weeks of the season and rely on my gut instinct. As much as our role is to shed light on statistical analysis, it’s important to keep sample size and scouting in perspective. Justin Upton was touted to be the next Ken Griffey Jr. and similarly Jay Bruce has long been touted as an elite power prospect. If you believe, believe! I believe, and I won’t be making the same mistake again on Bruce this year, who I very much believe in for a breakout 2010.
Rafael Furcal:
At age 33 and coming off a dissapointing .269/.335/.375 line and his worst EYE in 5 years, Furcal has all the signs of a player in decline. Furcal’s .106 ISO also represented the worst in over 5 years and his 18 SB attempts and 67% success rate only furthered the thesis. But digging a bit deeper I see some mild reasons for optimism regarding Furcal’s 2010 season. Now at 33 Furcal’s skills with the bat are in decline, no doubt; but he’s just 1.5 years removed from a monstrous start to 2008 (.357/.439/.573). In addition he’s hitting atop a pretty good Dodgers top of the order, which should result in decent run totals, and if he can just start running again (and with more efficiency), he’ll be back to a .280 hitter with 100 Runs and 20 SB’s. While he only ran 18 times last season, 7 of those attempts came in September when he went 6-7. In addition he’s already successfully stolen 2 bases this year, while drawing 3 BB’s and scoring 4 times in the first series of the season. Furcal’s unlikely to provide enough power to remind you of his fantasy heyday, but as a 100 R, 20+ SB option with a .280 BA, Furcal’s an above average mixed league MI option. In the 10 team traditional mixed leagues I’m playing in Furcal is largely unowned. If you’re in need of a MI option and could use some traditional SB/R production, I’d take the chance on a Furcal rebound this year.
Shane Victorino:
While the majority of the Phillies lineup has gotten off to a fast start, Shane Victorino has slumped out of the gates, hitting just 2-13 with 2 K’s and 2 BB’s. Pessimists may point to Victorino’s move down in the order and suggest Victorino is getting pitched differently without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard serving as protection behind him. So let’s take a look: Early on in the season there is some truth to this as Victorino’s seeing 11% less FB’s than in previous years. Now we’re working with extremely limited sample sizes but it is something to keep an eye on. For Victorino’s career he’s done much of his damage against FB’s (24.2 Runs above average last season) while struggling against offspeed pitches (1.2 Runs above average vs. Sliders, 7.5 runs below average against change-ups). This early in the season I tend to think it’s Victorino’s traditional slow starts (career .253/.322/.343 line in April/March) rather than a change in pitcher’s approach, but its worth keeping an eye on.
Kyle Blanks:
One of my favorite preseason sleepers is off to a difficult start this season as Kyle Blanks has struck out 6 times in his first 12 AB’s. Sure he knocked out a HR in his only hit, but the 50% K Rate is eye-popping even with all the small sample caveats. Now all that being said, Blanks struck out in 37% of his major league AB’s last season and was still able to be productive for fantasy owners thanks to an outstanding 12.8% XBH Rate and 6.7% HR Rate. Blanks has shown elite power coupled with a high K Rate in the minor leagues, but the hope for a breakout is somewhat predicated on an improved contact rate since his XBH Rate last year is unsustainable. In the minors Blanks posted a 27% K Rate and right around an 8% XBH Rate in 2008 and 2009. If we expect the power to regress some, the contact rate will need to improve for Blanks to have the breakout we expected. All the small sample size caveats apply so don’t get too wrapped up in this, but keep an eye on Blanks K Rate over the next few weeks. If the K Rate doesn’t come down into the high 20’s, low 30’s Blanks will have a difficult time being roster worthy.
Brad Penny:
Penny got a lot of hype this spring as a Dave Duncan reclamation project and through one start things look fantastic. Penny, who has shown some ground-ball tendencies in the past, rolled 13 ground outs in 7 efficient innings (100 pitches). He limited the Reds to 6 hits, 2 BB’s, and 1 ER, while striking out 4; posting a vintage 2009 line from the man he replaced in the Cardinals rotation: Joel Pineiro. Penny was tremendous in 41 innings in the NL last season posting a sub-1 WHIP and 2.59 ERA with the Giants. He’s always had good command and with a Dave Duncan inspired GB Rate, Penny could easily replicate and top the season Joel Pineiro posted last year. I think he’s a worthy pickup in all formats as a WHIP specialist with W potential.
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