Chase Headley - The Padres’ third baseman continued his hot start to the season by collecting 3 Hits against the Reds Saturday afternoon. After struggling in the first half last season, Chase Headley’s production significantly increased after the All-Star break as he hit .293/.377/.421 with an improved K/BB ratio. This season, Headley is hitting a cool .355/.412/.484, although he is enjoying a .404 BABIP. He’s swinging at fewer pitches, whether inside or outside the strike zone, but making more contact (82% Contact% in ’10 compared to 77% in ’09). He’s also striking out in just 14% of his ABs after whiffing in 24% last season. We’re all still waiting for Headley to discover his power stroke (1 HR this season), but overall the third baseman’s fantasy owners have to be pleased with the production they’re receiving from 25 year old.
Tommy Hanson - The Braves’ right hander is in search of his 2nd Win of the young season when he meets the Mets’ lineup in the Sunday evening game. Hanson’s 2.81 ERA through three starts in 2010 is similar to his 2009 season ERA of 2.89. However, Tommy Hanson has been luckier this season as his BB/9 has increased from 3.24 to 4.50 and his HR/9 has increased from 0.70 to 1.13. Hanson is also inducing fewer ground balls (30% against 40% in ’09) and throwing fewer first-pitch strikes (56% compared to 63% in ’09). All told, we’re talking about 16 IP in April and a guy that is striking out more than 10 batters per game with a sub-3.00 ERA. While his indicator’s might not be as good as his ERA, Hanson’s a pretty darn good pitcher and will only get better as he gains experience in his first full big league season.
Brad Penny - The latest pitcher to be transformed by Dave Duncan, Brad Penny faces the Giants Sunday afternoon looking for win No. 3. Under Duncan’s tutelage, Penny is inducing more ground balls than ever before (1.74 GB/FB in ’10 compared to a 1.31 career mark) by throwing drastically more split-fingered fastballs (28% in ’10 compared to just 2.3% for his career). Through his first three starts, Penny has posted an impressive 4.33 K/BB mark, 2.21 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. After allowing a GB% of 43% in ’09, Penny has raised that indicator to 54% this season. He won’t strike out a lot of batters (5.57 K/9 this season) and the low BB/9 rate (1.29) and BABIP (.269) are unsustainable, but Penny should still be an effective back end starter in your rotation who provides decent ERA, WHIP and Wins thanks to all those ground balls.
Jason Bay - The Mets’ left fielder, who entered Saturday’s game hitting a meek .230, connected for 3 base hits, including his 3rd double of the season, to finish 3-for-4 with 1 RBI against the Braves. Jason Bay is still without his first HR but Mets fans (and Bay’s fantasy owners) have to be pleased that he is beginning to show signs of emerging from a season-long slump. For the second straight game, Bay had an extra base hit and did not strike out. I still think he struggles to reach 25 HRs in 2010, but the power will eventually come back. Bay has a career ISO of .237 and eclipsed the 30-HR mark in four of the past five seasons so he didn’t suddenly forget how to hit home runs. Despite all the struggles with his power and BA, Bay is still patiently taking his walks at a 14% clip and boasts a respectable .356 OBP.
Casey Blake - Old Reliable. That’s how I think of Casey Blake. Sure, he won’t do anything particularly great, but in fantasy baseball there’s value in consistency and you can definitely bank on a certain set of numbers from Blake each and every season. Blake blasted 2 HRs Saturday against the Nationals and finished the game 3-for-5 with 3 RBI. During the past three seasons, Blake has connected on 18, 21 and 18 HRs, collected 78, 81 and 79 RBI and posted ISO marks of .167, .188 and .188. He’s also hit .270, .274 and .280 with 81, 71 and 84 Runs Scored during the same three-year stretch. Should you rely heavily on Blake for his offensive contributions? No, you can’t. But if you have a strong offense and need to allocate resources to improve your pitching, Blake is a more-than-acceptable fill-in starter at third base.
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