April 8, 2010 - NL Fantistics Blog
1. Dan Uggla (2B - Marlins) - Dan Uggla went yard for the first time this season and finished the night going 2-for-5 with 2 runs scored and a walk. It isn't discussed too much, but Uggla has been the staple of HR consistency in the HR category since emerging in 2006. His HR totals have been 27, 31, 32, and 31 from 2006 to 2009, leading to a fairly obvious Fantistics forecast of 31 HR for the upcoming season. That's a steady HR/AB of 22.6, 20.4, 16.6, 18.2, and a projection of 19.1 in 2010. His overall FPI remains lower at 0.62 because of his poor average, but we have seen an improved EYE over the last couple of years that could lead to a .360+ OBP (which would be the highest of his career).
2. Conor Jackson (OF - Diamondbacks) - The D-Backs decided to give Conor Jackson the night off on Wednesday, replacing him with Gerardo Pena. I don't think there's anything to worry about here. The D-Backs wanted to give Jackson some early rest and make sure Pena gets a few AB under his belt during the first week of the season. Jackson has plenty of power potential and should hit the 20-mark this year if his playing time is consistent (as we think it will be). That should be good for a 0.70 FPI, 90 RBI, and a dozen SB. There's no threat to regular PT because of this move, but its something to keep in the back of your mind if you see it again within the next week or so.
3. Chris B. Young (OF - Diamondbacks) - Chris B. Young didn't get a ton of love in this year's mixed league fantasy drafts. We project an FPI of 0.60 and his ADP dropped off the charts as he went mostly undrafted in many leagues. But the 26 year old Young certainly has the potential to make a big splash and he's already off to a decent start in 2010. He's for 3-for-11 with a HR, a double, and 2 RBI. Let's not forget that Young is only 26 and already has 3 full seasons under his belt, including a 31 HR season in 2007. Last year only yielded 433 AB due to injury, but in his previous two years of 2007 and 2008, Young posted FPI's of 0.59 and 0.57, HR/AB of 17.8 and 28.4, and ISO of .250 and .195. The real key here that could potentially make him the steal of the year is his gradual plate maturity. While he still strikes out a ton (a K for every 4.1 plate appearances over the last 3 years), his batting EYE has gradually improved from 0.305 to 0.376 to .444 last year. We're quick in the fantasy community to quit on a guy that hasn't performed lately (and rightfully so), but at 26, Young still has the chance to reemerge as the Young we saw in 2007.
4. Ian Kennedy (SP - Diamondbacks) - Making his first start in Arizona, Kennedy had a respectable outing on Wednesday. His pitching line was 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, and an impressive 8 K's. He didn't factor into the decision. Kennedy's name was mud in the Yankee organization which ultimately led to a three-way trade that involved the Curtis Granderson move to NYC. Kennedy felt entitled to a spot in the rotation with the Yankees, yet his on-field performance at the Major League level spoke otherwise. He only hurled 4 QS in 12 appearances despite having a K/I greater than 1.0 in the Minors. Now he'll get a steady spot in the rotation to show off his stuff and 8 K's is a solid start. He's a guy to watch, as he was often discussed in the same breath as Phil Hughes within Yankee inner circles. Probably just good for NL-only consideration now and will likely be around a 50% quality start rate over a full season in the NL.
6. Adam Dunn (OF - Nationals) - Do you really think this is going to last long? He has yet to hit a HR or drive in a run, but if you've been a regular customer of Fantistics for the last 7 years, you know my borderline unhealthy infatuation with Adam Dunn and his OBP & HR consistency. First, let's review the power situation. Dating back to 2004, Dunn had 46 HR's followed by four consecutive seasons of exactly 40 HR totals for the Reds (and a brief stint with Arizona in 2008). Last year saw his HR total "drop" to 38, which was still good for a HR/AB of 14.4. In total for his career (which began in 2001), his OPS is .902, partly driven by a walk rate of one BB for every 5.8 PA for his career. Even through his struggles in the first few games of the year, Dunn has still drawn 3 walks. The cold spell will snap and in late September we'll be talking about Dunn's 40 HR's, his hovering OBP of around .400, and his 100 RBI. If you play in a league with OBP instead of AVG, he's especially a top-notch OF.
