Wade LeBlanc:
LeBlanc pitched another 6 1/3 scoreless innings on Thursday against the Brewers allowing just 8 hits and 0 BB’s, while striking out 6. The big jump in K Rate this season is the big news for LeBlanc as his stuff at the major league level is starting to catch up to his minor league K Rates (career 8.4 K/9). This improved K Rate is coming with a 7% decrease in opponents contact rate, with a 10% drop on contact inside the zone. The sample here is small, but the data is significant, especially when backed with good minor league K Rates. LeBlanc’s shown average command at the major league level, but has shown above average command at the minor league level as well. While he gives up a lot of fly balls, he pitches in a park that won’t hurt him as much. The whole SD staff seems to be pitching above their heads a bit right now, but both Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia have shown flashes of strong peripherals in their past. As a result, I think both guys are worthy of consideration in all formats, at the very least as spot starters while at home.
Starlin Castro:
It’s about that time of the year when the prospect news really starts to burn the wires. Teams are past the time period that can delay a prospects FA by an extra year and are now aiming to delay super-2 status and arbitration. With teams off to slow starts, they often turn to the farm to provide a spark. With the Cubs that spark is Starlin Castro. Perhaps no prospect in baseball experienced more hype this offseason than Castro. The now 20 year old was promoted aggressively through the Cubs system and continued to get better with each stop, finishing off with a tremendous Arizona Fall League. This year at AA he’s gotten off to a blazing start hitting .370/.416/.593 with a 0.67 EYE and 13.7% XBH Rate. Rumors spread a bit the last few days that the Cubs were nearing a call-up, but GM Jim Hendry put that to bed quickly on Thursday indicating a call-up was not imminent. While Castro is certainly an exciting prospect and profiled in our Top 50 Hitters, he may not be a viable fantasy player right away. Castro possesses good speed but not elite SB potential (just 47 in 3 full seasons) and hasn’t shown great success rates (69% career, 50% this season). His power, at the age of 20, is more gap oriented as he’s totaled just 9 HR’s in his first 3 professional seasons. He’s an elite prospect because of his defensive value and great production despite being so young for his leagues. He’s going to get promoted at some point this season and while the hype machine will be in full force as a member of a big market organization, Castro isn’t likely to be a big fantasy contributor this season. Even in the best case (him adapting quickly to ML pitching), Castro’s going to be a 10 HR-10 SB type MI with a good average. Over time scouts believe the power will develop and he’ll be a high average 15-20 HR, 20+ SB guy, so those in dynasty and keeper formats should pay attention, but for those in redraft leagues there’s likely more hype than production for 2010.
Kelly Johnson:
Johnson’s been a bit of a saber-metric darling as he’s always shown good on-base skills and above average power for a 2B but his defense at 2B was always below average and last year when his bat slumped out of the gates, the Braves had their excuse to move on. The Diamondbacks scooped Johnson up in the offseason on a modest $2.35 million 1 year deal and are certainly getting their money’s worth so far. Johnson’s benefiting from the move to a friendlier hitters environment and showing improved command of the zone (swinging at 3% less pitches outside of the zone) along with immense power. The immediate reaction when you see Johnson hitting .320 with a K Rate above 20% is that he’d have been the beneficiary of some good luck, but this hasn’t been the case as evidenced by a .250 BABIP and .162 BHIP%. While Johnson’s actually been unlucky on balls in play, he’s been quite fortunate with balls leaving the yard. A 33% HR/FB Rate is clearly unsustainable as is a whopping 19% XBH Rate. That said, Johnson’s just turned 28 and is in the prime of his power years. Having posted a 9% XBH Rate throughout his minor and major league careers, a jump over 10% while hitting in a more favorable hitters environment during his peak years, certainly isn’t out of the question. We hung an 18 HR projection on Johnson, which would be a career high, and certainly with 9 already he appears well on his way to breaking 20. His skills actually compare somewhat favorably to last year’s 2B breakout Aaron Hill and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson put together a run at that type of campaign.
Wandy Rodriguez:
Wandy’s start got pushed back a day do to some back spasms and will now be starting on Saturday instead of Friday. Wandy’s been a popular topic on my twitter feed this year largely due to our strong projection on him and the slow start. He rebounded in his last start against the Pirates, but I still have some legitimate concerns about Wandy’s early season struggles, specifically the decreased K Rate. Wandy has struck out just 14 in his first 24 1/3 innings this season, but oddly the swing rates don’t really match up. Wandy’s actually generating more swings on balls outside the zone, more swings in general, and less contact outside the zone. The problem is inside the zone, he’s missing less bats, but only by a little bit. Perhaps some of this is the fact he’s throwing his changeup more than his fastball, but the data suggests little actual difference in his contact rate than in years past (80% this year vs. 79% last year). While I’ve been concerned with the lack of K’s, the data does provide a little comfort.
Evan Meek:
With Octavio Dotel having thrown 37 pitches the previous day, the Pirates turned to Evan Meek to close out the win against the Dodgers. This came just hours after manager John Russell confirmed Octavio Dotel would still be his closer. While I believe Dotel gets the next opportunity, Evan Meek retiring the Dodgers in order on Thursday could go a long way in shortening Dotel’s leash. Meek’s always had good stuff but hasn’t known where it’s going posting a BB Rate of 5.7 BB/9 at the minor league level and 5.6 BB/9 last year. This year he’s walked just 4 in his first 15 innings and is throwing strikes on 64% of his pitches as opposed to 59% in 2009. For now, Meek is a speculative add worth making for those in search of saves and if Dotel struggles in his next outing, I think Meek is a must-add.
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