April 6, 2010 - AL Fantistics Blog
1. Scott Kazmir (SP - Angels) - Kazmir was placed on the disabled list prior to opening day with a strained hamstring, but will make a start at Class A on Friday and rejoin the club over the weekend. If all goes to plan, he'll get a scheduled start next week against the Yankees (probably Thursday, 4/15) in the Bronx. While the hamstring isn't serious, Kazmir has a history of arm problems that kept his preseason fantasy value low with an ADP in the high teens. That actually made Kazmir a decent buy this year with a high K/I potential of about 1.0. Last season, his K/I was just 0.79, down from 2008's 1.10. But even though Kazmir's 2009 numbers were not good overall (4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), he did post improved stats when he was traded to Anaheim. In Tampa Bay, he posted a 5.92 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. After the plane landed in LAX, a switch went on in Kazmir and he posted a 1.73 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a .212 BAA in 36.1 IP. I'm a fan of his upside, but wary of his injury risk.
2. David Aardsma (RP - Mariners) - David Aardsma may have had a shaky spring, but he put it all behind him on Opening Day last night and earned his first save of the season, striking out 2 and hurling a perfect 9th with just 16 pitches. In 8.0 IP this spring, Aardsma allowed 13 hits and 9 ER while walking 7 and striking out 2. I can see why fantasy owners may be have been a little fearful on draft day, but in the 2009 regular season it was a much different story. Last year he successfully converted 42 save opportunities while posted a sub-3.00 ERA with 80 K's in 71.1 IP. Recall that Aardsma didn't even start the season last year as the team's closer, but assumed the role when Brandon Morrow suffered a shoulder injury. With an ADP of 15.0 during draft time, Aardsma continues to be a cheap source of quality saves.
3. Miguel Cabrera (1B - Tigers) - Miguel Cabrera was at the top of that next draft tier in the 1st rounds this fantasy preseason. After all of the other "stars" were drafted off the board, Cabrera was consistently at the bottom of the 1st round in most snake drafts with an ADP of 1.10. I've received a lot of feedback from Caberea owners and they mostly share the same sentiment about their 1st round pick. They want to be excited about him as much as other owners are about guys like Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira, but they can't quite get there. The good news is he alleviated some of those butterflies on Monday with a 2-for-4 start including 2 RBI and a run scored. I think we all tend to forget that Cabrera is just 26 years old and already has 7 seasons under his belt including 200+ HR, a career OBP of .383, 5 seasons with 30+ HR, and 6 seasons with 100+ RBI. While the excitement may be muted, 2010 should continue to produce big time numbers for the perennial all-star.
4. Johnny Damon (OF - Tigers) - Johnny Damon looked very comfortable in his new Tigers uniform. The 36 year old Damon drove in two and was 2-for-5 with two runs scored on Opening Day. Damon had a terrific spring. He hit .367 with a .415 OBP in 60 AB including 2 HR and 2 SB. He hit 24 HR in Yankee Stadium last year, but cavernous alleys, chronic injury concerns, and an increase in XBH% over the last couple of seasons should yield lower power rates heading into 2010. We forcast him for a big drop-off of about 15 total HR this season with an FPI decline from 0.74 in 2008 and 0.70 in 2009 to a projected 0.64 in 2010.
5. Austin Jackson (OF - Tigers) - The Austin Jackson era begins in Detroit. After being dealt from the Yankee organization in the Curtis Granderson deal, Jackson got the Opening Day start in CF and did well. He threw out a runner at home (well, not a runner but Jason Kendall). Jackson cerrtainly has 20-20 potential, but not in his rookie year at 23. He'll mostly produce on the basepaths and is more like a 10-30 (10 HR, 30 SB) player in 2010. His reputation in the mionr league was high K rate, avearaging a K for every 4.6 AB in 2008 in Double-A and 4.1 AB in 2009 in Triple-A. But Jackson showed indiciations of maturity this spring, striking out just 11 times in 73 AB while drawing 9 BB's. AL-only #3 OF and mixed league watch lists for Austin Jackson in 2010.
