Rich Harden SP (TEX) – Not that the Ballpark at Arlington does any pitcher favors, but it should especially negatively affect Harden. One of Harden’s biggest weaknesses is his propensity to give up the long ball. While his FB% for his career is only 41.7%, Harden has become a fly ball pitcher over the past two seasons, posting FB% of 49 and 43.8. Harden gave up 1.47 HR/9 last season in the NL at Wrigley Field, which ranked 15th in HR given up. This year he moves to the AL and is pitching in a ballpark that ranked 3rd in HR given up.
Robinson Cano 2B (NYY) – A couple of weeks ago, Joe stated that Cano was in line for more RBI opportunities, and I think there’s a good chance Cano takes advantage of those opportunities because his power spike last season was no fluke. Cano’s HR/FB% of 13% was only 2 percentage points higher than his career average, and as he enters his peak years it is expected to grow. Also, it wasn’t as if Cano set a career high in homers because a few doubles ended up clearing the fences; Cano set a career high in doubles too, blasting 48 of them. With this uptick in power and Cano’s ability to put the ball in play (90.1 contact rate in ’09), there’s a good chance he exceeds 100 RBI’s, which could end up being the best out of all 2B.
Rajai Davis OF (OAK) – While we don’t think Davis will repeat his .305 average, we don’t expect it to regress as much as many other publications. For starters, Davis improved his plate discipline. He almost doubled his walk rate from 3.5% to 6.7% while simultaneously striking out less. His LD% was at least 20% for the second straight season, and Davis can get on base in a variety of ways. For example, he had an infield hit percentage of 9.4% and threw in two bunt hits. That might not seem like a lot, but those types of hits add up and will help prevent Davis from having a low batting average due to bad luck. On top of all that, his XBH% saw a healthy climb from 5.3% to 8.1%. All this backs up our projected .293 average for Davis, and with a full season’s worth of at bats along with the tutelage of Rickey Henderson, it isn’t unreasonable to expect Davis to push 60 steals, perhaps more.
Matt Garza SP (TB) – For those of you who look at Garza’s ’09 stats and see slight declines in wins, ERA and WHIP and feel he has failed to improve, you couldn’t be more wrong. Garza struck out more than 2 batters more per inning that he did in 2009, but his HR/FB% caused his ERA to rise anyways. Here are Garza’s career HR/FB%: 8.7/8.2/8.4/10.2. Clearly, that last number seems a little out of place, and we should expect it to drop back in the 8% range this season. Other good news for Garza owners: his ERA of 3.95 was higher than his xERA of 3.68. Also, his win total of 8 was very unlucky, as Garza had 14 deserved wins.
Adam Lind OF (TOR) – The Blue Jays just inked Adam Lind to a four year deal. Smart move. The 26 YO Lind had a breakout season in ’09, and it was no fluke. Lind raised his EYE from .27 to .53. His HR/FB% rose from 11% to 19.8%. His FB% rose from 30.3% to 36.8%. His LD% rose from 18.8% to 20.2%. Clearly, Lind developed skills that are essential to a middle of the order power hitter. As a result, he’s a safe bet in both the power and average categories this season. His FB% of 36.8 is still a little low for a power hitter, so there’s still a chance he can raise that and move into a 40 HR hitter. Until then, expect Lind in the low 30’s, which is certainly more than acceptable.
