Miguel Cabrera 1B (DET) – A couple of days ago, Tom commented on Cabrera’s potential to 40 HR. While it’s tough to believe that Miggy hasn’t hit the 40 HR mark in his 6 full seasons, I certainly agree with Tom that this could be the year. It’s tough to forget that he enters the season at age 26, and could still see an uptick in his HR/FB%. The past three seasons Cabrera’s HR/FB% has been 18.x%, but he could see that jump up to 20+%, particularly since he displays power to all fields. Cabrera is an interesting case because of his vast major league experience and skills development at such a young age. It makes it difficult to tell if he is going to stay at his current level of production (which he has pretty consistently the past few years) or improve as he enters his prime years. I’m going to say we slight improvements, but just slight improvements in his HR/FB% and overall FB% (as Tom suggested) will thrust him over 40 HR.
Zack Greinke SP (KC) – Critical to Greinke’s CY Young run a season ago was his ability to keep the ball in the park. He gave up an incredibly low .43 HR/9. If we dig a little deeper though, we see there was a great deal of luck involved in Greinke reaching that statistic. His HR/FB% was a miniscule 4.5%. Despite Greinke’s clear improvement over the past year, we should still expect that number to regress towards his career HR/FB% allowed of 8.6. So, Greinke owners shouldn’t be concerned by last night’s outing, in particular the 2 HR he allowed. There’s nothing wrong with Greinke; he still pitched well (5 K, 0 BB). Just expect him to give up a few more long balls this year, which will put his ERA up around 3 rather than sub 2.50 as it was last year (2.16).
Josh Hamilton OF (TEX) – Hamilton has gotten off to a rough start (7 K’s in 11 at bats entering Saturday’s play), leaving a lot of owners thinking last year’s numbers are more representative of his skills than his brilliant ’08 campaign. However, I still think Hamilton’s poor performance last year had a lot to do with the injuries he was dealing with. In his last 10 plate appearances, Hamilton has walked 4 times, hit an opposite field double and tripled. Clearly, Hamilton is staying patient and not letting his early strikeout woes get to him, and this is a good indicator that Hamilton will begin to reward owners shortly.
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B (OAK) – Kouzmanoff hit his first homer as an Athletic last night, and his owners are hoping that his change of scenery and getting away from pesky Petco Park will help his power and overall offensive numbers. However, Kouzmanoff’s past woes at the plate can be blamed on a lot more than just a big park and poor surrounding lineup. His plate discipline is his biggest enemy. Last season, Kouzmanoff posted a horrible EYE of just .25, which actually matches his career average. It is .33 so far on the young season. The main cause of this is quite obvious; he swings at too many pitches outside of the zone. The past four years, Kouzmanoff has on average swung at 6.6% more pitches outside of the zone than the average MLB hitter. New ballpark, new lineup - doesn’t matter. Kouzmanoff’s plate discipline issues won’t change, and it will prevent him from making any significant improvements in his offensive numbers.
David Hernandez SP (BAL) – Hernandez had a nice start for the Orioles, allowing only two runs to the Blue Jays over 6 IP. He still remains irrelevant for fantasy purposes in both mixed and AL leagues. Hernandez has control issues. In his rookie season last year, he walked 4.09 batters per 9 IP, while striking out just 6.04/9. It was more of the same in his ’10 debut, as he walked 4 batters. There is long term hope for Hernandez. He’s only 24, and he struck out 12.40/90 at AAA last season and 10.60/9 in AA two seasons ago. Once he manages some control and his high K rate gradually translates to the major league level, Hernandez will be a quality starter. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen in 2010 though.
