Justin Masterson:
On the surface it looks like Justin Masterson is taking some big steps forward. He’s improved his K Rate early in the season with 24 K’s in 19 IP and he’s even rolling more ground-balls with an incredible 59% GB Rate. Sure enough luck hasn’t been on his side as Masterson entered Sunday’s start with a 66% LOB% and .433 BABIP against. All of those signs will alert a stat-oriented person to suggest Masterson as a potential buy-low candidate. But this is why analysis needs to be a combination of statistical analysis and scouting. A deeper look shows while Masterson’s overt peripherals are showing some mild improvements, the most important peripherals are in decline; specifically Masterson’s ability to get LH’s out. Last year Masterson allowed a .591 OPS against RH’s and a .877 OPS against LH’s. This year that gap has widened: .532 OPS against RH’s and a 1.177 OPS against LH’s. Masterson’s splits have gotten so bad that opposing teams are loading up their lineup with LH bats and grinding through Masterson. His Pitches/IP has jumped over 2 pitches, now approaching 20 and as a result Masterson isn’t able to last deep into games. Against RH heavy lineups, Masterson can be spot-started with confidence, but until he finds a way to get LH’s out he cannot be trusted in lineups. Given Masterson’s sidearm delivery that gives LH’s a long look at the ball, I don’t anticipate an improvement. There will be occasional gems, but his game log will be littered with mines, you’ll want to avoid. You’re best bet is to let someone else get teased into the upside.
Kendry Morales:
Morales quickly turned around a slow start to the season with a monstrous week going 13-24 with 3 HR’s and 10 RBI’s. I aired some concerns over Morales’ statistical profile in a blurb 2 weeks back citing an unusually high HR/FB% and ISO that drove Morales’ value last season. He’s doing his best job at replicating that as 6 of his 8 XBH’s have left the park thanks to a HR/FB% above 25%. The HR-heavy allocation of XBH’s has pushed his ISO up near the .263 level last season, but I continue to have concerns about Morales. While all the power numbers are staying the same, Morales is hitting 7% more balls on the Ground. In addition, his EYE has been atrocious early on (.18) due to an inept BB Rate (less than 2%). These are issues that Morales has faced in his past (low BB Rate. High GB Rate) and only make him more dependent on unusually high HR/FB% and ISO’s for success. Now at 26, going on 27, improved power or maintaining the big improvements made last year in the power department is possible, but the rest of his skill-set is making it a higher risk proposition. If you can take the opportunity with Morales red-hot to move him for a like 1B maybe with less risk (Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, even a Lance Berkman); I’d feel more comfortable with them.
Austin Jackson:
Jackson is really taking advantage of his first go around the league. With his first HR of his major league career on Sunday in a 2-4 effort, Jackson is now up to .316/.372/.468 with 13 Runs, 3 SB’s, and 6 RBI’s in his first month. It’s an impressive start, but one that isn’t likely to last. Jackson’s struck out an incredible 30 times in his first 79 AB’s (38% Rate) and is benefiting from a .425 BHIP% and .500 BABIP. Jackson’s shown good skills, posting a 30% LD Rate and 10% XBH Rate, so the good start to the season is certainly earned. However, a 30% LD Rate and an XBH Rate over 2% better than his minor league averages don’t seem sustainable. I’m not sure anyone believes in the hot start so it might be difficult to sell high on Jackson, but you should certainly try. As a result it may be best to just ride the hot streak and be prepared to bench or even drop when things inevitably turn south.
John Danks:
Danks is off to a phenomenal start this season and its being supported by a genuine improvement in peripherals. Danks threw 8 solid innings against the Mariners, limiting them to just 2 ER’s on 7 hits and 0 BB’s. The zero walks is the big thing as Danks has now walked just 6 in his first 29 innings while throwing 65% of his pitches for strikes. Along with improved command, Danks has seen a bounce in his K Rate supported by a 1 MPH improvement in velocity on his fastball and his cutter. The improved command is allowing Danks to get ahead of hitters more often as his first strike % has risen to 65%. Getting ahead has the compounding effect of making hitters expand their zone when behind and we’re seeing evidence of this with an increased Swing Rate outside of the zone (31% up from 21%). All of these indicators are compounding on one another and creating the tremendous start to the season with Danks. At just 25, improved feel and command of the zone is certainly something Danks is capable of and as such, I’m inclined to believe this may be another breakout season for Danks in which he steps forward from a mid rotation starter to a potential elite #2.
John Jaso:
The Rays system is just so accustomed to cranking out potential stars that pretty good prospects like John Jaso get lost in the mix. Jaso’s steadily moved his way up the minor league ladder while posting a career minor league line of .291/.379/.438 with an EYE of 0.97. Jaso’s flashed more gap power than HR power, as indicated by his career minor legaue high of 14, but a .800+ OPS Catcher with a great eye is a valuable commodity. Upon his promotion with Kelly Shoppach on the DL, Jaso’s done nothing but hit and get on base, posting a .429/.600/.786 line in his first 14 AB’s, while starting the last 4 games. He’s shown good patience upon promotion, drawing 5 BB’s compared to just 1 K and looks in line for the lion’s share of catching opportunities while Shoppach is out. Manager Joe Maddon has indicated a confidence in Jaso’s AB’s and suggested he has had no problems with game-calling either. At this point he’s a nice 2nd Catcher add for those in need. I’m considering making the play for Jaso over John Baker in a 2 catcher mixed league and believe Jaso has a higher long-term upside. If he continues to do what he’s done at the minor league level, he may end up being the starting catcher in Tampa the rest of the year.
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