Brian Matusz:
After two outings against one of the best offenses in MLB (the Rays), Brian Matusz got a much more favorable matchup on Sunday pitching against the A’s in Oakland Coliseum. Matusz looked good, allowing just 3 ER’s on 8 hits and 1 BB over 6 1/3 innings. He struck out 8 and continues to flash an elite K Rate early in the season (23 K’s in 18 2/3 innings). Against a less intimidating offense Matusz reigned in the command, walking just 1 and throwing 75 of his 102 pitches for strikes (74%). Control has never been an issue for Matusz at the minor league level or his brief major league stint last season so the 6 BB’s in the first 2 outings against the Rays looked like an aberration. From a skills perspective there are few young pitchers I like more than Matusz, but I’ve been hesitant to jump aboard the bandwagon for fantasy purpsoses because of the division he pitches in. Not only does he have to deal with the Yankees, Sox, and Rays, but he has to pitch largely in hitters’ environments. If I can spot-start him when he’s pitching out of the AL East, I think he’ll be a solid #3 fantasy SP, but that likely sucks out 1/3rd of his starts this year if I simply try to avoid the Yanks, Rays, and Sox. He has the upside to hit that #3 fantasy SP despite the tough schedule but I’d prefer to roll the dice on other pitchers who may not be as skilled but have friendlier environments to pitch in.
Magglio Ordonez:
The 35 year old Ordonez is off to a remarkable start this season, posting elite peripherals across the board. Even after an 0-5 Sunday, Ordonez is hitting .307 with a 1.17 EYE, 89% Contact Rate, and 12.2% XBH Rate. He’s homered 4 times already which is almost halfway towards his 2009 season total of 9. Maggs rejuvenation is being spurred on by some improement in his batted ball type as he’s getting more lift on the ball this year. After his GB Rate spiked last year at 51%, Ordonez has drastically improved that mark, bringing it back down to 35%. His career GB Rate is around 44% so we’d expect some regression. In addition a 25% HR/FB Rate isn’t likely to last. That being said, more loft on the ball is going to result in more XBH’s and while Ordonez might not hold the 12+% mark he’s posted so far, a return to his usual 9% rate is likely. Keep in mind Maggs is just 3 years removed from a monstrous .363/.434/.595 line. While he’s 35, the early indicators are pointing towards a significant bounceback year for Ordonez. He’s a nice “buy-high” candidate as he likely cost an owner very little and is viewed as a “sell-high” candidate due to his age. Maggs looks like a .300-75-20-90 candidate this year.
Luke Hochevar:
Hochevar remains a bit of an enigma from a fantasy perspective. On Sunday he improved to 2-0 by limiting the Twins to just 2 ER’s over 6 innings and striking out 4. That was the good, the bad… he walked 5 and allowed 11 base-runners in total. For the season his ERA sits at a tidy 2.89 with a WHIP of 1.39. Obviously those two numbers don’t go together, so one is going to have to budge. The question is will Hochevar’s WHIP improve or will his ERA rise drastically? It’s still tough to tell. Hochevar’s shown dramatic early season improvements in his GB Rate (50%) and his velocity (throwing 2 mph harder), but his command has suffered early on and he’s missing less bats, despite throwing harder. I’ve always been a bit less optimistic than most on Hochevar, so I continue to take a cautious approach. If you’re more optimistic, he’s certainly worthy of a roster spot in traditional 12 team mixed formats and deeper, but I’d try to pick my spots in starting him. He’ll get the same MIN team that had him on the ropes on Sunday, followed by TB. Those are two outings I probably wouldn’t have the fortitude to start Hochevar in.
Jason Bartlett:
Bartlett was a waiver wire gem last season, while posting a fantastic 0.81 FPI. As a career .286/.349/.391 hitter, Bartlett’s 2009 season in which he posted a .879 OPS is obviously in question. Furthering the critics, Bartlett’s gotten off to a slow start this season hitting just .208 through the first 11 games and even worse posting an abysmal .269 OBP out of the leadoff spot. The Rays are off to a fast start so the microscope isn’t on Bartlett yet, but fantasy owners sure have it on Bartlett wondering which version is the real one? The big thing that jumps out in Bartlett’s 2009 is his .170 ISO which he’s never come even close to at any level (highest previous major league ISO was .096). That power isn’t likely to continue and it hasn’t been evident early in 2010 as Bartlett’s had just 2 2B’s so far in his first 48 AB’s. Even without the power, Bartlett could make some noise as a high OBP/high Runs/SB’s contributor for fantasy owners. Unfortunately Bartlett’s only posting a 4.5% BB Rate to start the year, down from his 9.5% last season. While he has stolen 2 bases and scored 6 runs so far, Bartlett doesn’t look like a good bet to come anywhere close to his 2009 numbers and given his career OBP prior to last year was sub-.340, I don’t envision him holding onto the leadoff spot all season either. At this point I’d prefer a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera or even taking a chance on an older player like Rafael Furcal for the rest of the season when compared to Jason Bartlett.
Ricky Romero:
As I tweeted about in both of Ricky Romero’s starts this week, there is no pitcher in MLB that has made a bigger impression on me through the first two weeks. Romero followed up his near no-hit effort earlier in the week with another stellar outing against the Angels. Romero yielded just 7 base-runners over 8 innings, limiting the Angels to 1 ER, while striking out 6. Romero continued to show improved command, walking just 2 despite throwing just 59% of his pitches for strikes. More impressive, Romero continued to roll ground balls by the boatload, recording 12 more Ground Outs during the outing. He’s now posted a 32:11 GO:AO ratio and 22:6 K:BB in his first 3 outings. While he’ll face challenges pitching in the AL East, his current arsenal looks so much like Brett Anderson to me I can’t help but get excited. As long as he can command the strike zone, he’s going to be tremendous this year and is another “buy-high” target for fantasy owners.
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