New York Mets
It is looking like Jose Reyes will be back for the 5th game of the season.
Where should Reyes bat? A big question this spring has been whether Reyes should bat leadoff or third, especially while Carlos Beltran is out with an injury. Prior to his lost 2009 season, Reyes’ power had been increasing, 2006/2007/2008 doubles’ 30/36/37, triples’ 17/12/19, and home runs’ 19/12/16. However it is misleading as some of the doubles and triples were more the result of his speed rather than power, as evidenced by his GB%/FB% numbers, 2006/2007/2008 GB%’s 45%/42%/44% and FB%’s 34%/40%/33%, and Home run/fly ball ratios, 2006/2007/2008 HR/FB’s 10%/5%/8%. Also, the increases were slight and it is just league average power. Furthermore, his approach at the plate, 2006/2007/2008 BB%’s 10%/9%/11% and Ct%’s 87%/88%/88%, and success on the bathpaths, SB’s 64/78/56, make him perfectly suited for being a leadoff hitter. Manuel may want to be cautious and bat Reyes third while Beltran is out so that he won’t run as much, as he is recovering from a serious hamstring injury, but long-term Reyes, the Mets, and fantasy owners are best off having Reyes batting leadoff.
At this point the Mets’ do not have a defined 7th or 8th inning reliever to lead to Francisco Rodriguez when the Mets are winning. Whoever pitches well early from the group of Pedro Feliciano, Ryota Igarashi, Jenrry Mejia, and Hisanori Takahashi could lock themselves into key roles for the season.
The left-handed Feliciano has outstanding skills, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 57% GB% last year, and is deadly against left-handed batter, 9.1 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 63%, but not so much against right-handed batters, 8.7 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 44% GB. He will definitely be used as a situational lefty but the Mets won’t be afraid to let him throw to a RHB if he is sandwiched between a pair of LHB. He will have a key role in the Mets bullpen.
Igarashi had a 9.0 K/9 for his career in Japan but also struggled with control, 3.6 BB/9. Since the Japanese League is considered to be good Triple-A competition, don’t expect his control to improve against Major League batters. His 9 walks in 12.2 spring training innings is not an encouraging start. He could be one to disappoint.
Mejia pitched well this spring, but he is only 20 years old and walked 23 Double-A batters in just 44.1 innings last year. His 9.5 K/9 in Double-A points to a bright future, but he probably could use some time in Triple-A. If he breaks camp with the big team, expect him to struggle early and return to the minors.
Takahashi blew away hitters this spring, 14/3 K/BB in 13 innings. However his career numbers in Japan are good, but not dominating, 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.67 ERA, so it is doubtful that we are witnessing the beginning of the next great reliever in the Major Leagues, especially considering that he is already 35 years of age. Despite the strong spring, it is asking a lot for him to be an effective reliever against both RHB and LHB. The southpaw could find success as a situational lefty or long man, but it would be surprising if he was anything more.
At this point Feliciano is the only one worth owning for fantasy purposes with the others being pitchers who could emerge, but carry elevated risk.
Philadelphia Phillies:
It is a good sign for your team when you are not only coming off of two straight World Series appearances, but the biggest battles in spring training was for bench spots and long relief.
Three newcomers won spots on the bench, Ross Gload, Brian Schneider, Juan Castro.
The soon-to-be 34 year old Gload doesn’t have the power, 6 home runs in 230 AB last year, speed, or the ability to hit left-handers, 0/4/.194 in 31 AB, to be a regular, but has the skills of a pinch-hitter, 9% BB% and an 87% Ct%. So while he may help the Phillies, he offers no benefit to fantasy leagues.
Schneider is too injury prone and doesn’t hit enough, 3/24/.218 in 170 AB, to play as a regular, but with Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies only need him to catch once or twice a week. He should have no impact on Fantasy Leagues unless Ruiz gets hurt, so he can be safely ignored.
It is amazing that someone with no power/speed, 36 home runs and 5 steals in 2,694 career PA, and a terrible approach at the plate, 2007/2008/2009 BB%’s 4%/6%/5% and Ct%’s 76%/84%/78%, could stick around as long as Castro, he made his major league debut back in 1995. He must have some glove, which won’t help you in fantasy leagues. Not even in the deepest of NL-only leagues does he deserve a roster spot.
The Phillies will round out their bullpen with a pair of rookies, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo.
The 24-year-old Herndon was a Rule 5 pick so he needs to be on the roster all year or he has to be offered back to the Angels. The Phillies must see something they like; perhaps it was the 0.77 ERA in 11.2 innings this spring, as contending teams don’t usually keep Rule 5 picks that are not ready to contribute. However Herndon’s spring was not exactly dominating 7/4 K/BB, and his Double-A skills from 2009, 4.8 K/9 and a 1.9 BB/9, suggests that Triple-A should really be his next stop. You can safely ignore him in all fantasy formats.
On the other hand, the lefty tossing Bastardo has an intriguing skill set, 10.3 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9 in 36 Double-A innings last year. Even though he got smacked around with the Phillies last year, 6.46 ERA in 23.2 innings, he did show some dominance, 19 K’s. Considering that 5 of his 6 appearances with the Phillies last year were starts, the hard throwing Bastardo could find success in shorter outings from the bullpen. He is worth a flyer in NL-only leagues.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals are a team where long relievers could see plenty of work. Jesse English, Miguel Batista are the last two pitchers in the bullpen.
Batista’s 2009 4.04 ERA was more the product of good luck, .277 BHIP% and a 77% S%, rather than skills, 6.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, and a 47% GB%. Without the intervention of the baseball gods, he would need to drastically curb the walks to be in that area again. At 39 years of age, don’t bank on his control improving.
English’s spring, 9/0 K/BB in 6.2 innings, has earned him a spot in the bullpen but it is hard to recommend anyone who put up the kind of numbers he did last year in Double-A, 4.20 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 5.1 BB/9 in 100.2 innings.
Three bench players who could see playing time are Mike Morse, Roger Bernadina, and Willy Taveras
Morse’s versatility, he plays in both the IF and OF, and a weak Nationals’ outfield should net him plenty of action early in the year. He had a nice spring, 2/7/.293 in 58 AB, but in his previous major league action has sported average power, 6 home runs and 21 double in 392 PA, with a poor approach at the plate, 7% BB% and a 77% Ct%. To be successful, he will either need to get more loft of the ball, 48% GB%, to generate more power or improve his approach at the plate. At 28 years of age, don’t count on either happening.
Bernadina has speed, but needs to work on his technique, 3 caught steals in 8 career attempts, before he can even be considered a cheap source of steals. While he knows how to take a walk, 11% BB% in 91 career PA, he is going to have make much better contact, 72% Ct%, before he can claim significant playing time because he has so little power, 3 extra-base hits and a 66% GB%. There are way too many holes in his game to recommend him in any format.
With a good spring, 1/5/.302 with 2 steals in 43 AB; Taveras has earned himself the RHB part of the RF platoon with Willie Harris. He doesn’t have the power, 1 home run in 404 AB in 2009, or approach at the plate, 4% BB% and an 86% Ct%, to play as a regular, but he will deliver speed, 25 steals in 31 attempts last year. If you need steals in NL-only leagues, he is worth a shot, but don’t expect anything else.
Billy Wagner: Wagner looks to be fully recovered from his 2008 Tommy John surgery, 26 K’s in just 15.2 innings last year, an 11/2 K/BB in 9 innings this spring, and he reportedly hit 101 MPH on the radar gun last month. He makes a solid choice as a closer in any fantasy format.
Jeremy Guthrie: In addition to a declining skill set, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 6.1/5.7/5.0, BB/9’s 2.4/2.7/2.7, and GB%’s 43%/44%/35%, Guthrie’s poor spring, 7.41 ERA and a 16/13 K/BB in 20.2 innings, makes him one to avoid this year. The Orioles have a glut of young pitching talent so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a quick hook out of the starting rotation early this year.
Edwin Jackson: Jackson’s improved skills, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 7.2/5.3/6.8 and BB/9’s 4.9/3.8/2.9, led to better numbers, ERA’s 5.76/4.42/3.62, but there are some warning signs out there that may not make you happy if you paid up for him at your fantasy draft. If the rising trend in fly balls allowed continues, 2007/2008/2009 FB%’s 36%/40%/43%, it will not play well in his new hitter friendly home stadium. Plus if his good luck reverts, .272 BHIP% and a 76% S% last year, and his borderline control tips back over the acceptable 3.0 BB/9 level, it could be a very disappointing year for Jackson. His 5.07 ERA in the second half of last year and spring performance, 5.50 ERA and a 4/9 K/BB in 18 innings, is not inspiring confidence.
Ryan Franklin: With extreme good luck last year, 85% S%, a .261 BHIP%, and a 3.2% HR/FB%, and borderline skills, 6.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and a 46% GB%, it is very likely that not only will Franklin’s numbers significantly regress, 1.92 ERA and 38 saves in 43 attempts, but that he will not last the season as the Cardinals closer.
Carlos Marmol: If the Cubs had even a decent option to close games, they wouldn’t be using the potentially toxic Marmol, 7.9 BB/9 and a 48% FB%, as the only thing that saved him last year, 3.41 ERA, was a ridiculously low 2.6% HR/FB% which led to just 2 home runs allowed in 74 innings. If you dare to roster him, you will get some saves, but it will be at the expense of your team ERA and WHIP.
Chad Tracy: The 29 year-old Tracy has earned a bench spot with the Cubs, but his rapidly declining power numbers, 2006/2007/2008/2009 AB’s 662/260/292/288, Doubles’ 41/18/16/15, and HR’s 20/7/8/8, when he is at an age where they should be peaking screams that something is more amiss than some injury problems. Don’t speculate on thinking that he will recapture the 2006 skills; it was a long time ago.
Aaron Miles: Miles has earned a roster spot with the Reds, but lacking the range to play SS, he is basically playing behind Brandon Phillips, which means he will be limited to spot duty and pinch hitting. Considering that he offers no power, 0 home runs in 157 AB in 2009, speed, or plate patience, 5%, the only thing his punchless 87% Ct% can provide is, at best, decent pinch-hitting abilities. He has no value in any fantasy format.
Chris Johnson: Johnson’s hot spring, 6/17/.302 in 53 AB, has earned him some playing time at third base while Lance Berkman is out, as Pedro Feliz will shift to first base against southpaws. He had a good, but not dominant, 2009 season in Triple-A, 13/42/.281 with 20 doubles in 412 PA, and will need to improve his plate patience, 5% BB%, to avoid being exploited by major league pitching. He is worth a shot in NL-only leagues with daily transactions so that you can insert him in the lineup when the Astros are facing a left-hander, but outside of that he is not recommended.
Fred Lewis: Lewis, who has ailing ribs, will begin the season on the DL, so that he can get some extra work in extended spring training. With 2009 numbers of an 11% BB and a 52% GB, combined with speed, he hit 11 triples in 2008, it would seem Lewis would have the perfect speed skill set, but he swings for the fences too often, 71% Ct%, with weak results, 4 home runs in 336 AB last year. He will not find success as a regular unless he makes much better contact.
Jeremy Hermida: Hermida, who will serve as the Red Sox’s fourth OF, will most likely miss the first couple of games due to a hamstring injury. The 26 year-old Hermida’s power is declining, 2007/2008/2009 AB’s 429/502/429, Doubles’ 32/22/14, and Home Runs’ 18/17/13, at a time when it should be increasing. With his FB% increasing, 2007/2008/2009 FB%’s 36%/36%/39, the lack of growth is discouraging, HR/FB%’s 16%/13%/10%. While time is still on his side, it running out quickly and there doesn’t seem to be any indicators that he will take a step forward.
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