The Third Basemen
The Must Haves
Evan Longoria 1390 (TB) – Look for Longoria to put up A-Rod type numbers this season, minus a few steals and batting average points. There’s not too much to say about Longoria that hasn’t already been said. At 24 YO, he’s already one of the game’s premier hitters with just two major league seasons under his belt. We expect him to continue to take a step forward this year. As noted in the projections software, Longoria has 40/120/.300 potential thanks to his great XBH% of 13.2. Also, his EYE jumped from .38 to .51 last season, which is an extremely encouraging sign for a young hitter of Longoria’s caliber. The best is yet to come, and he’ll most likely be in my lineup for all 26 weeks.
Ryan Zimmerman 1260 (WAS) – Zimmerman finally had the breakout year everyone was waiting for. With the high expectations thrust upon him from the beginning of his career, it’s hard to imagine he’s still just 25. Last season, he saw his EYE jump from .44 to .61 (a career high), and his ISO from .159 to .233 (never above the .200 mark before). One of the big reasons for his increased power output was an increased FB% (41.6 – 4 points higher than career average). This may be correlated to his new patience at the plate. Zimmerman walked a career best 10.4% of the time, meaning he was swinging at pitcher’s pitches less frequently, giving him increased opportunities to drive the ball. We think Zimmerman could see another increase in HR output this season, as his power is not yet fully developed in our opinion. His HR/FB% of 15.9 for a hitter like Zimmerman could still climb 1-2 percentage points which would result in 2 to 4 more homers than last season assuming a repeat in FB%.
The Super Sub
David Wright 1420 (NYM) – Wright is a great filler at the utility spot or 3B spot if you need some BA and SB help without losing RBI’s. He is a career .309 and hitter, and the only time he failed to hit .300 was as a rookie in 2004 when he hit .294 in 263 at bats. Wright suffered last season, as it appeared the spacious confines of new Citi field really got in his head. Not only did his HR/FB% drop (16.7 to 6.9), but he also struck out about 7-8% more than he usually does. At the age of 27, I expect Wright’s K% to fall right back into his normal range. He’s had a full year to adjust to his ballpark, and I doubt his plate discipline is suddenly shot. Even if his HR/FB% fails to climb back into the 16% range, he still managed to hit 26 HR in 2006 with a 12.4 HR/FB%, which is certainly doable again. Remember, as much as the new ballpark played a factor in Wright’s reduced power, so did bad luck, as his HR/FB% on the road was an abysmal 6.6%, which was actually worse than his home mark. Throw in the fact that Wright is a good bet to steal 20 along with a supporting cast that should be better with the addition of Jason Bay and a healthy (???) Jose Reyes, and I cannot justify leaving him off of my squad. He makes a good platoon pay with Ryan Howard (1470) at the DH spot, which is primarily how I plan on using him.
Just Missed
Pablo Sandoval 1110 (SF) – Even though Sandoval is young (23 YO), we don’t see him making too much of a leap forward at this stage. His singles average was inflated last season (.277), and without too much of a history on Sandoval, it’s best to play it safe and assume some regression towards the major league average will take place. So, in a dreadful San Francisco lineup, a Sandoval who hits .310-.315 versus one that hits .330, just misses the cut. And even though his amazingly high outside swing percentage (16% higher than the MLB average in ’09) does not affect his BA, I think it may be a reason why his FB% (35.5%) is a little bit lower than we’d like to see. Until that rises, Sandoval fails to eclipse the 30 HR mark. Still, if you really need some BA out of your DH spot, Sandoval’s price isn’t unreasonable and you could do worse than that.
Avoid
Ian Stewart 590 (COL) – Unless you are healthy on batting average, Stewart is not a good play. I know the power potential at this tag is awful tempting, but his batting average downside and playing time risk prevents Stewart from being a CDM play. In parts of three MLB season, Stewart has struck out 33.9% of the time. Sure, last season he had an unlucky singles average of .208, but that’s what happens when you strike out as much as Stewart and don’t hit line drives (14.1% LD rate in ’09). Also, Stewart has an inability to hit lefties, which means he might end up seeing the pine more often than not against southpaws. Last season his AVG/OBP/SLG line against LHP was .178/.278/.386. I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Mark Reynolds 1300 (ARZ) – For starters, Reynolds’ .260 batting average was actually the result of some good luck, as he had a .268 singles average, which was high and especially high for a hitter with a .34 EYE. Now, we know power hitters strike out a lot, but Reynolds’ mark of 38.6% makes him extremely risky. Even with us projecting Reynolds to pretty much repeat last year’s numbers, he only ranks as Fantistics’ 5th best 3B, and there’s not much room to grow. Reynolds could hit anywhere between .230 and .260, and if he does not repeat his outstanding 26% HR/FB%, we could see him in the mid thirties there. Not to mention, his 24 steals came out of pretty much nowhere, and he’s more likely to obtain sub 20 steals this season. CEILING: his ’09 campaign. FLOOR: Shave off 20 points of BA, 10 HR, and 10 steals, which certainly makes him unworthy of a play. It’s tough to roster a player like Reynolds when you need him to perform at his “ceiling level” to be worth his tag, and it seems like an unnecessary risk at this position.
jeff
Apr 2, 10 at 02:42 PM
I think I like Stewart a great deal more than you. Until last year, Stewart was okay against LH pitching. Also, a high average guy in the minors who developed a long swing last year. Does not swing at a lot of bad balls, either. Will not hit .300, but much better then last year...guessing .265 with plus power.