2010 Preseason Prep - March 4, 2010

Dodgers Backup Outfielders – The top three is obviously set with Manny, Kemp, and Ethier, but what about the backups? Reed Johnson was signed this winter to be the No. 4 OF, and he brings with him, a .329/.395/.483 line versus LHP since 2007. Competition for the same-side hitting challenged Andre Ethier? Considering Ethier’s top-10 NL MVP finish, that would seem foolish until you see Ethier’s line versus southpaws a year ago: .194/.283/.345. Ethier will be given a shot to prove he’s improved versus LHP, but if he struggles, Johnson will get some of those at-bats.

Dodgers No. 5 starter – The one name I neglected to mention last week was Eric Stults and it appears Stults is the (very) early favorite for the job. Stults has the advantage of throwing from the left side, and he already has two big league shutouts on his resume in 24 starts spread over parts of four seasons. Of course Stults also sports a 4.84 ERA, 5.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in those 145 innings, so expect James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and others to make a push this month. In Stults’ favor as well is that he’s out of minor league options (ditto Charlie Haeger).

Giants No. 5 starter – It’s still early, but Madison Bumgarner was in the 87-89 mph range with his fastball Wednesday while tossing a pair of scoreless innings in his Cactus League debut. Bumgarner got by with deception and diminished velocity over the second half of last season as well, so this bears watching. At this point, we’ll have to consider Todd Wellemeyer the early favorite for the No. 5 starter job. The lack of velocity resulted in Bumgarners K/9 dropping from 10.5 in Low-A in 2008 to just 5.8 last year in Double-A, and with a .241 BABIP, there's reason to be concerned, particularly if he can't find that other 5 mph hour that seems to have vanished.

Giants Right Fielder – Nate Schierholz had an RBI single in Wednesday’s Cactus League opener and seems to have the early lead to garner the majority of the RF at-bats. Don’t rule out Brian Sabean signing a veteran to compete this month, but this battle appears to be Schierholz v. Fred Lewis.

Diamondbacks’ No. 4 and 5 starters – This should be Ian Kennedy for sure, and likely Billy Buckner. Buckner is interesting. Sure, the 6.10 ERA last year was scary, but a 64:29 K:BB in 77.1 innings isn’t that bad. Factor in a .347 BABIP and unusual 61.3% LOB% and you have a guy capable of lowering his ERA into the middle fours. He’s a decent NL-only league sleeper.
Diamondbacks’ top set-up man – This is Juan Gutierrez’s job to lose. Keep in mind here that Chad Qualls is getting expensive, is 31, and is coming off a knee injury. Should Qualls go down or find himself on the block come July (unlikely given Arizona should be competitive this year), Gutierrez could be in line to close in the future.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS-SF) – Burriss felt pain in his foot (the one operated on last season) legging out a double on Wednesday and will likely undergo tests this week. That’s clearly a setback for Burriss, so those hoping for a very cheap source of stolen bases ought to look elsewhere. A guy with no power and just a 6% BB% last year shouldn’t really be on your radar anyway. He’s not a future regular.

Josh Bell (3B-BAL) – Bell seems to have little chance at opening in the big leagues once camp breaks, but he’s already off to a nice start. Bell blasted two homers in Wednesday’s game (one off Matt Garza) in his only two at-bats while DHing. Tejada meanwhile played the field and made an error while going 1-for-3. Bell has 30 HR (or more) upside, but needs to learn to hit LHP consistently (he’s a switch-hitter) if he wants to be the O’s starting 3B late this year or in 2011. Bell posted a 0.62 EYE and 78.1% CT% in Double-A last year, so there are some skills here.

Sean Rodriguez (2B/OF – TB) – Rodriguez homered in one of his two at-bats on Wednesday as he’s off to a good start in attempting to win a utility job. In theory, he could be the Opening Day 2B if he outshines Matt Joyce (Ben Zobrist to RF). Rodriguez has plenty of power potential (30 HR in 385 Triple-A at-bats last year), but he also made contact just 68.3% of the time, leading to projections that he’s a .260 major league hitter at best. S-Rod is also getting time at shortstop this spring, and his versatility could net him upwards of 300 at-bats, making him a solid AL-only sleeper.

Huston Street (RP-COL) – Sore arms are always the rage at this point in camp, and most of these reports turn out to be nothing more than a case of “working out the kinks”. With that caveat in mind, Street is taking anti-inflammatory medication for a sore shoulder this spring. Keep an eye on his progress this month as a result, but all indications are that this is nothing to worry about. Street’s BABIP was 21 points below his career total last season, so that’s somewhat of a concern and more ominous (pure speculation here) is the connection to Dr. Tony Galea, wanted for importing and using banned drugs. Probably nothing.

Travis Snider (OF-TOR) – It’s always interesting to scan early spring boxscores. Manager Cito Gaston so far is living up to his promise to try the immortal Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot, and he went with a lineup that should look pretty similar come Opening Day. That’s why it was rather surprising (disturbing?) to see Snider all the way down in the nine-hole, even behind Alex Gonzalez and his .689 career OPS. Snider of course has been a highly-touted hitting prospect for a couple years, but it’s looking like his value this year (hitting ninth doesn’t help) won’t be as high as we’d hoped. Snider is still young (22 last month), but this is a guy who put up a 1.094 OPS last year in Triple-A as a 21 year-old. The minor league BABIPs have been astronomical, but they’ve been astronomical consistently, so perhaps he can be a .280 hitter in the big leagues despite a CT% that hovers in the 70% area. Let’s just hope he gets the chance this year.

Justin Upton (OF-ARI) - The D-backs Wednesday inked Upton to a six-year deal with just north of $51 million, a deal that's going to look like an absolute steal in a year or two. Why? Upton is on the verge of being a top-five fantasy pick, a perennial .300/.400/.600 type player. To put that into context, just three players topped a 1.000 OPS last season - Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, and Prince Fielder. Illustrious company indeed. Honestly, I find it tough to project a guy who put up a .899 OPS as a 21 year-old in the big leagues. Upton's CT% jumped from 66% to a still-low 74% and he even stole 20 bases. The sky is the limit here, and the Ken Griffey Jr. comparisons are dead on.

Garrett Anderson (OF-LAD) - Anderson signed a minor league deal Wednesday to return to Southern California, this time with the Dodgers. Anderson batted just 268/.303/.401 for the Braves last season and will serve as the team's fifth outfielder and primary left-handed pinch-hitter should he make the Opening Day roster. With the starting OF set and Reed Johnson the fourth outfielder, there don't appear to be many at-bats available for GA, so he can be safely ignored barring an injury to the big three.

Austin Jackson (OF-DET) - Jackson found himself leading off for Detroit in Wednesday's game, going 1-for-2 with a walk. That's the good news. The bad? He was not only caught stealing, but was also picked off first the other time he was on base. Meanwhile, a sleeper for time in CF this year, Casper Wells, homered in his only at-bat. Obviously one game means very little, but Jackson clearly has work to do on the basepaths before Jim Leyland can trust him as his leadoff man.

David Ortiz (DH-BOS) - Okay, so it was against that AL East juggernaut Northeastern University, but it was still nice to see Ortiz go deep on Wednesday. I'm probably more bullish on him than most this year despite the .238 BA and generally disappointing season. Big Papi is still just 34, so we're not talking Ken Griffey Jr. last legs here, and 28-99 is respectable enough considering his slow start. A few other reasons: a .284/.390/.557 September, hitting coach Dave Magadan saying that Ortiz's mechanics have improved "significantly" this spring compared to last year, and that he appears heathier and lighter compared to last year. I'm normally wary of the "best shape of his life" type spring stories, but there's a lot to like here. Yes, his BB% (12%) has dropped three years running and his CT% is way down compared to 2007, but I still think .270-30-100 is easily reachable this year. Of added incentive (if you buy this theory), Ortiz is in a contract year.

Lou Marson (C-CLE) – Marson appears to be the early favorite for the Indians’ Opening Day starting catcher job. It’s early and Carlos Santana still the future (with a summer 2010 ETA), but Marson has the skills to at least keep the spot warm for Santana for a few months. A career .274/.369/.386 minor league hitter, Marson’s skills are obvious (0.69 EYE) and limited (63.4 AB/HR). He’s far more valuable in leagues that use OBP as a category, but overall, don’t expect much should he wind up as the starter.