Preseason Prep - March 3rd, 2010

Cubs Bullpen:

One of the least talked about situations in fantasy baseball is the Cubs bullpen. With Carlos Marmol, a long-time fantasy darling, securing the role last season (1.84 ERA, 63 K’s in 44 innings in Save opportunities) most fantasy pundits have ignored the weakness in Marmol’s credentials (8.2 BB+HBP/9 in Save situations, 9.3 BB+HBP/9 in non-save situations) and instead focused on the solid Save Conversion Rate (78%) and high K Rate (11.3/9). But why should you be concerned about Carlos Marmol? Let’s take a look at Marmol’s peripherals over the last 3 years
K/9 BB+HBP/9 GB Rate Avg FB Velocity
2007 12.5 5.1 31.3% 93.3
2008 11.7 4.8 34.6% 93.7
2009 11.3 9.4 35.8% 94

On the plus side, Marmol’s GB Rate has been making slight improvements and his ability to limit the long-ball over the last 3 years despite sub-standard GB Rates is attributable to just how difficult Marmol is to hit. Of course the concerning trend here is the obscene lack of control coupled with a mildly declining K Rate. While big jumps in lack of command can often signal potential arm problems, Marmol’s velocity has actually increased over the last few years, suggesting health may not be a concern. If Marmol can simply reign in the control, he’ll be back to an elite closer, right?

That certainly would be the case, but I can’t get past that enormous walk rate. Marmol has been one of the most leaned on relievers in baseball over the last 3 years, averaging over 77 IP per season and while the fastball velocity has maintained (even risen), I’m concerned the usage patterns over the last 3 seasons has had some potential long-term effects on Marmol’s health and/or his command. Obviously if the health becomes an issue we need to identify an alternative, but if the command remains an issue as it did in 2009, we’d also need to identify an alternative. Unfortunately, identifying an alternative is difficult in a young and inexperienced Cubs bullpen and is another primary reasons most fantasy analysts have ignored the Cubs bullpen situation.

John Grabow was paid as a setup man, but his 1.44 career WHIP suggests a closer’s role would never work. Angel Guzman has the stuff 8.2 career K/9, 1.05 WHIP last season , but his health has always be in question and he’s already complained of shoulder soreness in the spring. The rest of the bullpen is a mix of young journeymen and non-prospects, but one name in camp stands out: Andrew Cashner.

Cashner was the Cubs 1st round pick in 2008 after spending much of his college career closing for TCU. Cashner was considered a fast-moving relief prospect, but the Cubs had other ideas trying him out as a starter. Cashner possesses a high octane fastball along with a hard breaking slider that helped him put together a 13.3 K/9 in college. As he’s advanced through the minors as a starter his K Rate has fallen (just 7.0 K/9), but he’s remained very difficult to hit (7.5 H/9). Given the strong K Rates in college, you’d imagine his stuff would play up out of a relief role and given the pedigree (originally deemed a fast-moving college relief prospect), Cashner is the most intriguing guy in the Cubs camp this spring. He’s received glowing reports within the Cubs organization and Lou Pineilla made comments on Tuesday indicating Cashner could break camp with the club. While Marmol will enter the season with a strangle-hold on the closer’s role, health and command could become an issue. There aren’t many internal options to close for the Cubs and Cashner’s pedigree makes him someone to watch in camp this spring.

The only other name worth mentioning is Jeff Stevens, who has closed before in the minors and compiled a rather strong minor league resume (9.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.12 WHIP). Stevens didn’t make much of an impression on Lou Pineilla last season so I’m a bit skeptical of his opportunity in camp.

Cubs Battle for the 5th Rotation Spot:

With Ted Lilly likely to start the season on the DL, the Cubs will have an in-season battle for the 5th starter’s slot in the rotation. Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija figure to round out the competition. Although Silva is the mostly highly compensated, it would be a significant surprise if he were able to win the job. Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija are both young former prospects that have shown glimpses of putting it together, but generally been identified as better fits in the pen than in the rotation by manager Lou Pineilla. This leaves Tom Gorzelanny, who was perceived as the smaller piece of the deadline deal that brought John Grabow over last season. After coming over, Gorzelanny pitched extremely well in a brief stint at the end of the season, posting an FIP of 3.91 in his combined stints last season. Gorzelanny has had extended success at the minor league level (career 1.12 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9), but outside of a decent 2007 hasn’t been able to put it together at the major league level. His main culprit has been an inability to generate swings and misses, but last season his Contact % dropped from 81% (where it had been much of his career) to 77%, while his first strike % increased over 2%. More strikes and more swings and misses in a short stint last season could be the beginning of a breakthrough for the 27 year old. For NL-only leagues Gorzelanny is a nice upside gamble in the rotation based on the terrific minor league numbers and his competition bears monitoring during the spring.

Rays RF/DH:

The Rays project to be one of the best offenses in all of baseball and a team that could generate some nice offensive sleepers. With their willingness to use platoon advantages and defensive flexibility the Rays tend to open up a lot of AB’s for opportunity. This was the same team that brought both Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist to fantasy stardom last year. This year the most obvious areas of opportunity are at the DH and RF spot. Last year Matt Joyce was brought in for Edwin Jackson and was supposed to be the LH mashing side of the RF platoon but Joyce struggled early and was sent back down to Durham. A similar bust for 2009 was the FA signing of Pat Burrell. At 32 it appeared Burrell’s skill set fell off a cliff as his ISO dropped down to .146 and his K Rate jumped 3%. Both players will get a shot to rebound in 2010 and while each have some power intrigue and certain RBI potential in a loaded Rays lineup, I’m not sure either has much upside beyond AL-only formats. Fortunately, there is someone in the Rays camp that has significant upside and warrants monitoring. Desmond Jennings had never been able to stay healthy and show off his elite skills, until last season. At AA and AAA Jennings was able to play 132 games and posted a combined line of .318/.401/.487 with a 1.00 EYE and 52 SB’s in 59 attempts. Elite athleticism combined with a refined approach at the plate, Jennings has all the makings of a stud both in real life and in fantasy. The Rays have not only shown a willingness to give young players chances to earn playing time, but they’re focus on the defensive end could lead to them unveiling an OF of Crawford, Jennings, Upton that would rival the Mariners for the best defensive OF in all of baseball. Strasburg and Heyward will get all the attention this spring, but Desmond Jennings deserves your awareness as well.

Can BJ Upton rebound?

After posting an .894 OPS at the age of 22 few would imagine BJ Upton would’ve seen consecutive seasons in which his OPS has fallen nearly 100 additional points, but after last season’s miserable .684 OPS that’s where we are with BJ Upton. Even amidst a miserable season that saw Upton hit .241/.313/.373 he still provided fantasy owners with 11 HR’s and 42 SB’s. Looking through all the numbres there’s little trend to indicate which version of Upton over the years is for real. It’s clear the 2007 season looks like an anomaly when compared to the rest of his major league career, but being able to put that line up as a 22 year old and combined with his former top prospect pedigree, its hard to discount.

The good news when projecting Upton is the 2009 season would seem to be a floor. He’s not going to lose time in CF as he’s an excellent defender and the Rays lineup can afford Upton’s offensive contributions even if they’re similar to last season. While Upton won’t come with a discount on draft day as owners still will pay a premium for Upton’s power-speed combo, the floor for Upton seems to be known (40+ SB’s, low BA, double-digit HRs). Given that the high end of the projection would be a 25-45 season with a .280 average, owners willing to take risk should be willing to pay mid-round value for Upton’s upside. While our system looks to find value and judges Upton’s inconsistency and low BA contributions as unworthy of a 6th rd selection, fantasy owners willing to bet on talent can take solace in Upton’s floor being a 10-40 season.

How Good can Brett Anderson be?

There are few “sleeper” pitchers this year rising faster than Oakland’s Brett Anderson. When fantasy analysts talk about the pitching trifecta they’re focused on Strikeouts, Walks, and Ground Balls. Those are the three statistics that help pitchers control the three true outcomes (strikeout, walk, HR). So when you see a guy post a 7.7 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, and 51% GB Rate in their first full season in the bigs after posting a 9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 56% GB Rate at the minor league level… well you get excited. Then you add in the fact he pitches in one of the best environments in all of baseball, behind a team that has placed an added emphasis on defense in recent years, and you get the hype machine that is Brett Anderson. His ADP has crept up into the mid 120’s overall, and owners may start to question at what point is he overvalued? Other owners looking for upside might wonder “How good can he be?”

Like every young pitcher Anderson has some risk associated with him. He eclipsed the dreaded Verducci Rule last season, topping his previous season high in innings by over 50. In addition he struggled early in the season getting swings and misses, generating a K Rate of just 6.6 K/9 when he struggled to just a 4.64 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The innings bump combined with the struggles in the 1st half might be a concern and help set a potential low floor which can be worrisome.

However, I look at the elite minor league numbers coupled with a monstrous 2nd half (3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.8 K/9) and I see a Top 20 SP. I’m drafting him ahead of established veterans like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, and even John Lackey. I’ve pushed him up my own draft board towards the group with Beckett, Nolasco, Vazquez, Peavy, etc. While he won’t get much run support in Oakland and he does carry some elevated risk particularly with the innings bump, the elite GB, K, and BB combination is unique. In most elite pitchers you’ll get 2 of the 3, but very few will you find with a chance to be elite in all 3 AND pitch in one of the best environments in all of baseball.

Player Blurbs:

Huston Street – Street revealed he’s had some shoulder tightness that has slowed his spring throwing program down. Street downplayed the issue suggesting last year’s September flare-up which cost him three weeks was far more significant. Street’s balky shoulder is worth monitoring, but his return to elite skills last year will continue to make Street a 2nd tier closing option.

Kendry Morales – Morales officially was able to report to camp on Tuesday after struggling with green-card issues. Morales reported in good shape and manager Mike Scioscia indicated Kendry was good to go. Coming off his breakout 2009 season we’re projecting Morales to maintain his production while having some elevated risk to repeat based on his poor career EYE and heavy reliance on XBH% that was well above his career major and minor league numbers. At age 27 he still has some mild room for growth, but it’s most likely ’09 is close to the peak.

Stephen Strasburg – While Jim Riggleman may want Strasburg in his opening day rotation (as he’s indicated in previous quotes this spring), he was back in line with management’s stance on Tuesday. Riggleman indicated Strasburg was likely to start the year in the minors citing the usual reasons such as his need to get the experience and its best for him, etc; but we all know the Nats are doing the smart thing here for the organization. They can delay Strasburg’s arbitration clock for another year and generate buzz surrounding his first start once the allure of the “hope springs eternal” wears off sometime in May or June. While Strasburg isn’t likely to get more than 25 starts at the big league level this season, we still view him as an impact pitcher right off the bat, similar to Mark Prior. While others are lamenting the likely mid-season call-up and the wasted roster spot until then, for leagues with deep benches we view Strasburg as a terrific value based on where he’s being draft currently. Draft late and remain patient and be ready to reap the rewards come June.

Tommy Hanson – Tommy Hanson had little left to prove against minor league competition after blowing through the minors last season and having sustained success in the 2nd half of last season at the big league level, so the Mets starting lineup of non-regulars on Tuesday was no match for Hanson. He breezed through 2 clean innings allowing 1 single, while striking out 3. Hanson may have had some good luck on his side last year with a high strand rate and low BABIP, but his terrific K Rate should take more steps forward with some more experience. We’re looking for a low 3’s ERA, mid 1.2’s WHIP and just under a K/I, making Hanson a solid #3 SP, back-end #2 SP.

Jason Heyward – A subtlely magnificent debut just seems right for Jason Heyward. In his first spring training game of the season he went 1-1 with 2 BB’s, while doing so against big leaguers who rely on off-speed stuff like Nelson Figueroa and Elmer Dessens. From a statistical profile there are few prospects who have been as impressive as Heyward. The incredible plate discipline and advanced approach at a young age coupled with almost unbelievable power for a 19 year old (.555 Slugging % across A-AA-AAA last season). There isn’t a weakness in his game and the Braves brass is already enamored with him. While most clubs will hold back prospects to delay there arbitration clock, the Braves appear ready to hand the reigns over to Heyward. In Bobby Cox’s last season, I can’t imagine the Braves holding back any shot Bobby has at winning another division crown. Look for Heyward to be in the starting lineup from day 1 and while the truly elite fantasy numbers may not come for another year or two (he’s only 20), he’s more advanced at the plate than a guy like Justin Upton when he came up at 20. At the current price of a 20th rd draft pick, sign me up.

Josh Hamilton – Hamilton returned to spring drills on Tuesday but won’t likely play in the Rangers spring opener. Hamilton’s draft stock has been way depressed after last season’s injury plagued campaign and the early spring shoulder issues have only pushed him down further. I recently landed Hamilton in the 8th rd of a 10 team league, which at that price I felt was an incredible steal. When factoring in high upside injury risks like Hamilton, who was just valued as a 1st-2nd rd pick as recent as last season, owners should remember they can always trade the commodity early in the season. While Hamilton might not be a great bet to play 150 games, I’ll only need 40 or so healthy ones before I can deal him for a more reliable top 3 rd pick and pocket a profit. Don’t get spooked by minor bumps and bruises in spring and keep in mind the ability to trade injury-prone players early in the season if they’re elite talents like Hamilton.

Lance Berkman – Berkman has been diagnosed with a knee contusion that will cost him some time early in spring training. Berkman’s been identified by much of the fantasy community of late as a nice value, falling into the 6th and 7th rd. That value has been eroding away as more sights tout the potential bargain, but Berkman’s knee injury should help push that ADP back down a bit. Berkman’s skills showed little erosion last season, but luck and lack of lineup support played a big role in his deflated numbers. Look for a nice bounce-back this season, especially in average and likely some pop as well. We’ve got Lance projected for 30 HR’s and a .290 average along with 90+ Runs and RBI’s, which would make him an appropriate 5th-6th rd value, who had been dropping into the 7th rd.

Brian Roberts – Roberts was diagnosed with a herniated disc in his back that will sideline him for the first week of the spring. The scarcity at 2B is keeping Roberts ADP pretty high (mid-4th rd selection) but the injury coupled with the lack of “sexiness” associated with Roberts at 2B should drive him to the bottom of his tier. While Roberts doesn’t have the pop of some of his counterparts he’s been a consitent AVG-R-SB contributor and the Orioles lineup should only improve this season with a young and talented offense playing in a great home park. Although his skills are declining mildly (EYE has been eroding), his surrounding cast has been improving and will help hold up Roberts value for another year.

Starlin Castro – No prospect received more of a rise in prospect rankings and hype machine than Starlin Castro through last season and the Arizona Fall League. The 19 year old was promoted aggressively through the Cubs minor league system last season holding his own at AA after succeeding at high A. He has great hand-eye coordination and flashes a plus glove already. Scouts believe he’ll fill out and eventually add some power to the already strong approach at the plate. On Tuesday we continued to get an indication that Lou Pineilla was buying into some of the hype as well. Pineilla indicated he may start Castro in the leadoff spot for the spring opener and continued to push the idea that Castro can make the club out of camp. Having just 122 PA’s above A ball, Castro needs more time in the minors to develop. As a fantasy asset he doesn’t have elite base-stealing ability and at 19 his body isn’t close to producing power at the big league level. As a result he has little fantasy upside for this season, though dynasty and keeper league owners should keep an eye on his development.

Johan Santana – The Mets indicated Johan is still on pace to start on opening day. While Johan’s ADP will likely rise with each spring outing and each move closer to opening day, I’ll likely be on the outside looking in. There are enough red flags with Santana’s peripherals that I’m concerned. His K/9 has dropped considerably despite moving to a far easier league to pitch in, while his BB/9 has also risen each of the last two years. Perhaps the elbow issue was the problem and now it’s cleaned up, but I’m skeptical. Johan still posted elite numbers last season (3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but as the contact rate has risen (up to 78.4%, settled around 73-74% in MIN), Johan’s fantasy value has plummeted. The ratios are important but without the K’s he starts to fall down the draft board. Fantistics is projecting a recovery in the K Rate this year and an indication of faith in his elbow, but personally I’m not there. I’d rather take Jon Lester and his Lincecum-like peripherals a round later.