March 24, 2010 - Fantistics Preseason Notes
New York Yankees
1. The 5th Starter - We predicted it here a few weeks ago and it will likely be official later this week. Phil Hughes WILL be the fifth starter for the Yankees to begin the 2010 season with Joba Chamberlain moving to the bullpen (and Chad Gaudin placed on waivers). Of course, the Yanks won't need a 5th starter until April 24th anyway (at Anaheim), because of the way the schedule falls out. Hughes has always been groomed as a starter from Day 1 of him joining the organization and the team has been very protective of him when it comes to off-season trade offers over the years. Hughes has struggled at times this spring, but his velocity is still improving (currently at 90-91 at best with a few more ticks on the radar gun expected by the time the regular season rolls around). Joba will definitely be the 8th inning guy to start the season, providing fantasy owners with plenty of Holds opportunities and the occasional save if Mariano Rivera gets too many consecutive save opportunities. The remaining candidates will move to the 'pen as well, with Sergio Mitre and Alfredo Aceves serving in long relief with no fantasy value. Gaudin will likely be traded or released and Boone Logan and Royce Ring will begin in Triple-A. Now that the drama is done, who's ready to start talking about Joba Rules?
2. Outfield Positions Named - The Yankees will officially name Curtis Granderson as the starting CF and Brett Gardner as the LF to begin the 2010 regular season. While it seems like the obvious choice, the Yankees were less than confident to begin spring training that it would fall out that way. Graderson would take awkward paths to shag fly balls and Gardner has shown he can play a solid CF in the Bronx. While the news doesn't have a ton of fantasy consideration for Granderson (unless you play in leagues that specify the outfield positions instead of the general "OF" category), it does add another regular SB threat into the fantasy pool in Gardner. Playing everyday and getting 450+ AB this season (Randy Winn will have to get some playing time), Gardner should swipe 35+ bases.
Chicago White Sox
1. Rosters Continue to Shrinken - The White Sox continue to narrow down their opening day roster with a few moves yesterday. With 32 players remaining in White Sox camp, perhaps the most fantasy-relevant move was optioning catcher Tyler Flowers to Triple-A Charlotte. Flowers, one of the top catching prospects in the game and the White Sox #2 prospect according to Baseball America, is just 24 and needs a little more seasoning behind the plate before being big-league ready. His spring ABs probably didn't help his cause either, going just 2-for18 with two singles (.111), 4 BB, 5 K's. If AJ Pierzynski (ADP of 21.0) gets hurt or Flowers booms offensively in the minors, expect to see Flowers called up this year.
2. Carlos Quentin (OF/DH - White Sox) - Maybe you were rewarded by him in 2008 or burned by him in 2009 (maybe both). But what about 2010? Injuries killed him and his fantasy value last season, but he still hit 21 HR in just 351 AB. And with the DH spot more open this year, Quentin will likely serve less time in the OF and more as a designated hitter. His ADP of 9.02 may drop on draft day with injury-fears by your fellow league mates. But 30+ HR and 90+ RBI leading to a 0.69 FPI as the permanent DH is not out of the question for Quentin in 2010. He has some great upside and I think he has a fair chance of staying injury-clear.
Kansas City Royals
1. Billy Butler (1B - KC Royals) - The 23 year old Butler is poised to continue his hot hitting from 2009. In the 2nd half of last season, Butler crushed 13 HR's, averaging a HR/AB of 22.1 while hitting .314. His overall FPI was 0.68 as he he .303 with 21 HR and 93 RBI. You can bet that with another year under his belt, his HR total will continue to climb. Building of an ISO of .191 which was greatly driven by his 51 doubles, Butler forecasts to a 0.71 FPI as he flirts with the 30 HR, 100 RBI mark for the first time in his young career. First base continues to be really deep this year with the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera all forecasted to go in the first round. But if you drew one of the later picks in your draft and you can't grab one of those top-tier 1B, Billy Butler is a solid pick with lots of upside at an ADP of 7.07.
2. Alex Gordon (3B - Royals) - Just a reminder not to forget about Alex Gordon on draft day (although let's hope your fellow fantasy players do). He has a hand injury that should keep him out of the lineup for the first couple weeks of the season, but it shouldn't be too serious. He could be a last round kind of guy in your league (ADP of about 19.0 right now) to stick in the DL spot and see what happens. The 26 year old Gordon has 20/20 potential and, while has been a disappointment to date, still has time to mature and produce. We think he's a 0.60 FPI kind of player and has the talent to be a solid mixed-league fantasy 3B. Don't overpay, but don't forget about him just because he has a bad thumb.
Player Notes
1. Adam Lind (OF - Blue Jays) - At just 26 years old, Adam Lind burst onto the scene in his 3rd year with some gigantic numbers. I think we all remember the epiphany moment when Lind went from being the "hot-hand" to a legitimate fantasy stud. In 2009, Lind hit .305 with 35 HR and 114 RBI. He generated a total of 81 XBH, good enough for an ISO of .257, while posting a 0.75 FPI and a HR/AB of 16.8. Not bad for a guy who was likely drafted in the late rounds of last year's draft. That won't be the case this year as Lind's average ADP is about 4.10. Lind hasn't had a great spring, hitting just 6-for-25, but he does have four extra base hits (2 doubles, a triple, and a HR). We have another great year forecasted for Lind, so draft him with confidence.
2. Austin Jackson (OF - Tigers) - Jackson will finally get his chance this season as he moves from the Yankee system to Detroit in the Curtis Granderson deal. Jackson has left manager Jim Leyland with no doubts this spring training. Hitting .375 for the spring, Jackson is crushing the ball and has swiped 3 bases after getting the green-light to run at-will. Most of his value will be on the speed side, forecasted to swipe 25 bags as he is slotted to lead-off for the Tigers. While he has posted a strong average this spring, Jackson will have his work cut out for him as he adapts to big league pitching. Over the last two seasons in Double and Triple-A, Jackson averaged a strikeout for every 4.8 PA and his BB/K went from 0.496 to 0.325 from '08 to '09. I wouldn't be surprised to see him strikeout out 120 times this year.
3. Max Scherzer (SP - Tigers) - Scherzer cited "intensity" as the main contributing factor behind his lackluster spring. Who can blame him? I'm sure its extremely difficult as a fireballer to get motivated to pitch just a few innings in meaningless games with pitchers running on the warning track behind you. But as the spring draws to an end, Scherzer is starting to step it up, pitching a solid five innings against the Nats on Tuesday with 4 K's, 4 H, and 1 run allowed. At just 25, Scherzer has the potential to post 200 K's this season. In 2009, he averaged more than 1.0 K/I with 174 K's in 170.1 IP. ADP around 13.0 right now.
4. Pat Burrell (DH - Rays) - Burrell's "Mendoza-line" spring isn't helping his fantasy case heading into 2010. From '08 to '09, Burrell's average dropped from .250 to .221, his ISO declined from .257 to .146, HR/AB from 16.2 to 29.4, and, probably most importantly, his EYE went from 0.75 to 0.48. Injuries haven't helped, but Burrell has seemed relatively healthy during the Grapefruit league, but just hasn't been able to put it together. It doesn't help that Hank Blalock, who was acquired by the Rays a couple of weeks ago, is breathing down his neck for the DH spot. I'd steer clear from him, even in AL-only leagues, despite manager Joe Maddon's recent vote of confidence that Burrell is "on pitches, but just a little under them right now."
5. Dustin Pedroia (2B - Red Sox) - Pedroia left Tuesday night's game against the Twins with a strained left wrist. He hurt it in the field while diving for a ball and the swelling was minimal. Manager Terry Francona didn't seem too concerned, but the Red Sox will take some X-Rays this morning. If it was a real emergency, they probably would have had him tested last night. Stay tuned, but I don't foresee this changing any draft strategy in the short-term.
6. Ryan Dempster (SP - Cubs) - Dempster is up to regular-season form. He threw 93 pitches yesterday in 5.1 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, and 6 K. He has a couple of more starts before the regular season begins, but at 93 pitches, he's just about there. Dempster took a step back in 2009, but it wasn't really a surprise. His 2008 was tremendous with a 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, K/9 of 8.14, and 17 total wins. His 2009 wasn't bad either, although it was a recognizable decline from '08 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, K/9 of 7.74, and only 11 wins (although his deserved win total was 14). An interesting (and counter-intuitive trend) was that his GB/FB went up from 0.95 to 0.99 over that two year period, yet his HR/9 drastically increased from 0.61 to 0.99. We expect a bit of a bounce-back year this year with lower WHIP totals and steady ERA with an ADP of about 14.0.
7. Aramis Ramirez (3B - Cubs) - A-Ram didn't waste any time this year when it comes to injuries. He's been suffering through a right tricep injury, but was available to DH yesterday against the Royals. I guess if it was a regular season game, he'd probably be at 3B, but additional injury risk to Ramirez will likely move him downward on draft boards. He's still a top-10 3B by all accounts with an ADP of about 5.0, but it may be worth to pick the next available best player if its a coin flip for you on draft day.
8. Bengie Molina (C - Giants) - There will definitely be some drama in the Bay area if Molina hits this way in the regular season. He's hitting .378 this spring and, while he will begin the season as the starting catcher, it is the intent of the Giants to eventually move Buster Posey to full-time duty behind the plate this year. He'll be drafted in all mixed leagues with an ADP of 15.0, just not by me. This will be a position battle situation by mid-season and unless you want to carry two catchers, I'd go with more continuity at catcher.
9. Jose Reyes (SS - Mets) - Jose Reyes has been officially cleared to resume baseball activities after his overactive thyroid has returned to normal levels. GM Omar Minaya originally predicted that Reyes would need about 10 games in spring training before being ready to star the regular season, but he has since gone back on that original estimate and just wants to see how things progress over the next couple of weeks. It remains to be seen if he'll be ready for Opening Day, but it doesn't seem like it would be too long after the first game. He remains the same injury risk because of his legs as he always was with an ADP in the 2.0+ level.
10. Cliff Lee (SP - Mariners) - Lee's start to the season has once again be compromised by his abdominal strain. He tested it on-field yesterday and still feels discomfort. The Mariners season begins April 5th and it looks like the Mariners are preparing not to have him ready by then. Typically, you hear optimism from coaches and the front office regarding minor injuries. With Lee, there has been little positive spin by manager Don Wakamatsu, making me believe that a DL-stint to begin the regular season is a very real possibility. He'll be tested again on Friday and we should have more details at that time. In the meantime, you may consider ticking him down a spot on your cheatsheet.
