Cleveland Indians Rotation: Do the Indians have one starter worthy of a roster spot in a 10-team fantasy baseball league? The fact that a post-Tommy John surgery Jake Westbrook or the horrendously wild Fausto Carmona could potentially battle for the Opening Day starter spot seems to indicate a “no” to the proposed question. However, there is hope in the form of Justin Masterson. The soon-to-be 25 year old has shown promise through his first 217 big league innings, posting an 8.1 K/9 and 3.97 ERA. He needs to lower his BB/9 rate which was 4.18 in 2009, but Fantistics believes 2010 will be a productive year for the right hander as he delivers a solid 173 Ks and decent-enough 4.23 ERA.
As for Westbrook, assuming he returns to full strength following surgery, it’s fairly easy to predict his contributions to the Indians and your fantasy team based on past performance – an ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00s, about a five K/9, and a WHIP hovering around 1.30. Westbrook works his sinker down in the zone to induce groundballs (59.5% career GB%) and doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (90.5 MPH career average) so his strike out numbers are unlikely to rise.
Since his 2007 season, Carmona recorded a 5.44 ERA in 2008 and pitched so poorly to begin 2009 that Cleveland eventually sent him all the way down to Rookie ball. He’s always been a low strikeout, high walk guy with a career K/9 of 5.58 and BB/9 of 3.90. For Carmona to succeed, he absolutely must control his bread-and-butter pitch – the sinking fastball. By throwing the sinker for 75% of his pitches, Carmona leaves little room for error. If the sinker’s not working on a particular night, he has no backup pitch on which to rely.
Seattle Mariners First Base: While neither Casey Kotchman or Ryan Garko will be mistaken for an above average first baseman in the American League this season, Seattle General Manager Jack Zduriencik believes their two-man platoon will provide more than enough production for the Mariners offense. As for your fantasy team, you probably won’t be in contention for a playoff birth relying on either of these players for your first base needs.
Acquired from the Red Sox for Bill Hall and a minor leaguer this past offseason, Kotchman produced a promising .372 on-base percentage, 11 homers and 68 RBI in his first full big league season with Anaheim in 2007. But since being traded to Atlanta and then Boston during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the former 13th overall pick hit just nine homers and 27 doubles in 606 at-bats while recording a paltry 195 total bases. In 2009, Kotchman actually improved his line drive percentage (to 19.1% from 17.8% in ’08), but witnessed his HR/FB% drop by an alarming 2.8% (from 9.7% to 6.9%). Worse yet, Kotchman led all major league first baseman by hitting a groundball in 51.4% of his at-bats. He’ll primarily start against right-handers in this platoon, but posts a meager .742 OPS against those pitchers in his career. Fantistics believes Kotchman will find part of his lost power stroke by posting 14 home runs and tallying 199 total bases in 453 at bats.
Garko signed for just $550,000 and while he did manage to produce 90 RBI in 2007, don’t fall for that trap. In reality, he’s only a part-time role player who’s posted a solid career OPS of .887 against southpaws but just .755 against righties. Garko’s key indicators are trending the wrong way as he chased a career high 27.6% outside the strike zone and hit fly balls in a career-low 39.5% of his at-bats in 2009. To be fair, Garko’s 2009 season slash line of .268/.344/.421 was hindered by a little bad luck as his BABIP was a career-low .280. Fantistics expects Garko to post 14 home runs and a .295 batting average in just 340 at-bats in 2010 – basically similar numbers to Kotchman in about 100 fewer chances.
Cleveland Indians Catcher: Barring injury or an unforeseen circumstance, youngster Carlos Santana will be behind the dish for Cleveland at some point during the 2010 season. What should Santana owners expect from the switch hitting backstop?
After two undistinguished seasons in Rookie and A ball for the Dodgers in 2006 and 2007, Santana had a breakthrough 2008 season between his time in High A ball for the Dodgers and Indians. In 455 at-bats, Santana crushed 20 home runs, drove in 115 and walked 89 times. The Tribe promoted Santana to AA at the beginning of last season and he picked up where he left off in 2008 by posting slash stats of .290/.413/.530 with 23 HR, 97 RBI, and 1.08 BB/K ratio. The switch hitter is widely-regarded as the No. 1 prospect in a solid Indians farm system and, depending on how well he handles AAA, could see the big leagues some time during the first half of the 2010 season. If he does, you can expect a Victor Martinez-type of player – good batting average, high on-base percentage, and excellent power. Those in keeper leagues should target Santana as a long-term solution to their catching needs.
In the meantime, the Indians have to enlist someone to play catcher and that leaves us with the unappealing choice between prospect Lou Marson and career backup and former Twin Mike Redmond. In the minors, Marson was known more for his ability to hit singles and get on-base rather than his power. In other words, he’s a very poor man’s version of Jason Kendall and not worth a spot on your roster.
As for Redmond, you don’t want any part of him on your roster.
San Diego Padres Third Base: When San Diego sent Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland in a four-player trade on January 16th, Chase Headley’s fantasy baseball owners rejoiced. With third base now vacant, Headley will move back to his natural position and become (potentially) fantasy relevant in 2010. The 25 year old Headley showed promising plate discipline improvements last season by lowering his strikeout rate (from 28.3% to 21.7%) and raising his walk rate (from 8.2% to 10.1%). Unfortunately the improved patience didn’t translate into a power surge as Headley recorded just a .131 ISO, unsightly .392 slugging %, and cracked only 12 home runs.
Despite those unimpressive totals, there are two reasons to keep an eye on Headley in 2010. First, by moving from outfield to third, Headley does not need to produce nearly as much to have value. There aren’t too many good options at the hot corner, so if Headley is decent this season, he’ll warrant a spot on a fantasy roster. Second, Headley’s 2009 second half was actually quite impressive. After hitting just .232/.308/.366 in the first half, Headley posted .293/.377/.421 marks after the All-Star break. He certainly didn’t confuse anyone for Mike Schmidt, but anytime a young player makes that type of jump during a season, you hope something’s clicked.
Headley owners could also maximize the third baseman’s value by playing him in a strict platoon, based on his home-road splits. While playing at Petco, which lowered run scoring by 26% in 2009, Headley had a David Eckstein-esque .651 OPS. But in away games, Headley improved his OPS to a respectable .803.
San Diego Padres Bullpen: While much of the focus this offseason in San Diego has involved the potential trade of slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, fantasy owners in need of saves should keep an eye on the Padres other star veteran.
Fresh off signing a one year, $4 million contract to avoid arbitration, Heath Bell looks to build on an outstanding 2009 season that saw the 32-year old save 42 games, post a 2.71 ERA a 1.12 WHIP and improve upon a number of key indicators.
During the past three seasons, Bell has been one of the elite relievers in baseball, and he may be getting better. In 2009, Bell recorded a career-best 10.21 K/9, while lowering his walk rate from 3.23 to 3.10 and HR/FB rate to a miniscule 0.39. He also induced more groundballs (48.0% up from 45%) and fewer line drives (17.5% from 19.7%) despite a small uptick in BABIP from .291 to .303.
Unfortunately for Padres fans, having a premier closer on a small market team isn’t the best allocation of resources, which means it’s likely Bell finishes 2010 wearing a different uniform. Enter Mike Adams.
Fantasy owners in deep leagues should know Adams name from last season, when he posted a ridiculous 0.73 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 37 innings. After not pitching in the majors in 2007, Adams re-emerged with the Padres in 2008 to notch a 10.19 K/9 and held opposing batters to just a .210 average. Adams bested those numbers last season by increasing his K/9 to 10.85 and decreasing opponents’ batting average to just .118. On Fantistics K/I rating scale, Adams notched an impressive 96 on a scale of 100. Our projections for Adams recognize his small sample size from last season but still predict a very strong 2010 with the righty recording a 2.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 60 Ks.
Aside from Adams, keep an eye on right-hander Luke Gregerson. The former Cardinals product tallied impressive numbers in his first season, striking out 93 in 75 innings to go along with a 2.50 FIP. While Gregerson walked a few too many (3.72 BB/9), he thrived despite a .332 BABIP. We predict Gregerson to tally another ERA in the low 3s (3.37) and strike out 87 in 74 innings of work.
While we predict Bell to save close to 40 games in 2010 and Adams and Gregerson just 3 and 4 respectively, the value of all three pitchers will change drastically if Bell gets dealt. Bell should still be one of the first closers off the board in your draft or auction, but be aware that there’s always the chance he becomes an 8th-inning guy on his new team. As the trade deadline nears, consider stashing away Adams or Gregerson on your bench or in a relief pitcher spot. Both should provide lots of strike outs and a low ERA/WHIP while possibly adding to your team’s saves total by season’s end.
Seattle Mariners Bullpen: Seattle’s David Aardsma was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in 2009, recording 38 saves, striking out 80 and providing a 2.52 ERA. However, several key indicators point to a regression – perhaps significant – for Aardsma in 2010.
Always a power pitcher, Aardsma recorded a career-best 10.09 K/9 rate in 2009, but induced drastically fewer groundballs (44% in ’08 to 25.3% in ’09), allowed significantly more flyballs (38% in ’08 to 53% in ’09) and witnessed his line drive % increase from 17.9% to 20.8%. Most alarming, Aardsma enjoyed a good deal of luck by posting a .271 BABIP compared to .338 in 2008. Our software doesn’t seem as concerned as I am about Aardsma’s peripheral stats, penciling in the reliever for 34 saves, 74 Ks, and a slightly higher 2.83 ERA.
If Aardsma does struggle, Mark Lowe and Brandon League would likely be the first candidates to step into Seattle’s closer’s role. After struggling in 2007 and 2008, Lowe enjoyed a career-best 2009 campaign as the right-hander posted a 3.60 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 80 innings. Lowe was successful despite tallying career-lows in his K/9 rate (7.76), GB/FB rate (0.97) and FB% (40.1%), although he did decrease his BB/9 to 3.26 from 4.81 in 2008. It’s always dangerous to trust a pitcher with a decreasing strike out and groundball rate, so be cautious when deciding to add Lowe to your roster, even if he does become the closer.
Unlike Lowe, League didn’t enjoy an impressive season in 2009, at least according to the basic pitching stats. The former Blue Jay posted an ugly 4.58 ERA in 67 innings, but increased his K/9 rate to a career-best 9.16 and lowered his BB/9 rate from 4.09 in ’08 to 2.53 ’09. Additionally, League’s FIP was a full run (3.58) below his actual ERA, partly thanks to a substantial increase in his BABIP (from .271 in ’08 to .322 in ’09). If the Seattle closer job opens, I consider League the dark horse since he has better peripheral stats compared to Lowe and should expect his BABIP to regress more towards the mean in 2010.
Jason Frasor (TOR) - How nice it is to be wanted. Frasor still needs to beat out Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs for the closer’s job in Toronto, but reports say the Twins are targeting the right-hander to possibly replace the injured Joe Nathan. The 31-year old is accustomed to taking over for an injured closer -- he picked up 11 saves after Downs was lost to injury at the end of last season. After posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2009, you can expect Frasor to find some saves in 2010, either as the closer coming out of Toronto’s camp, taking over if Gregg or Downs falter, or as the Twins’ ninth inning guy. Definitely a late round value pick for your team’s bullpen.
Albert Pujols (STL) - ‘El Hombre’ is dealing with a self-proclaimed “weak” back after being scratched from yesterday’s lineup and isn’t expected to return for another few games. Can’t blame the Cardinals for taking a conservative approach with the world’s best hitter. There’s no indication that Pujols will have any issues moving forward, so feel free to draft him at No. 1 as you would. The good news is that Pujols says his tender elbow feels stronger than last season when he hit 47 home runs and drove in 116. Good luck, National League pitchers.
Brian Roberts (BAL) - First a herniated disc, now severe stomach discomfort. It certainly hasn’t been a pleasant start to 2010 for the Orioles’ second baseman. Roberts will be re-evaluated Thursday before continuing his rehab and he hopes to be ready by Opening Day. I’m no doctor but swinging a baseball bat hundreds of times every day can’t be good for an injured back. We predict 27 steals, 102 runs and 17 HRs for Roberts, so he’s still a top second base option. Just keep a close eye on his medical progress throughout spring training.
Dan Uggla (FLA) - Uggla went 2-for-3 against the Astros on Wednesday including his first spring training home run. Every year it seems fantasy owners get scared to draft Uggla because of that unsightly batting average (career .257 hitter), but for the past three season the Marlins’ second baseman has popped 30+ HRs and 88+ RBI. In fact, Uggla was even a bit unlucky last year when his BABIP dropped to a career-low .277 yet he still maintained a high ISO of .216.
Brett Gardner (NY) - The Yankees’ speedster scored two runs and recorded a hit on Wednesday, but the big news was that he also drew a walk. While you can expect solid steal numbers from Gardner, he lacks plate discipline (.325 career OBP%, 0.65 EYE) and doesn’t hit for enough power or production to help you with HRs, batting average or RBI. Until Gardner improves his OBP, he will continue to be a one-trick pony and fringe fantasy outfielder at best.
Grady Sizemore (CLE) - Grady’s Ladies will sleep easy tonight as Sizemore cracked his first spring training home run, a grand slam, and finished 2-for-2 with four RBI. After injuries cost Sizemore much of his production in 2009, you can expect the Cleveland centerfielder to bounce back nicely this season. Sizemore’s 2006-2008 season were extremely consistent as he compiled an OBP between .374 and .390, hit between 24-33 HRS, and collected more than 170 hits. Entering his age-27 season, Sizemore is healthy, in his prime, and a great bet to garner Comeback Player of the Year consideration by season’s end.
Luke Scott (BAL) - Perhaps he’s still fuming from not being allowed to bring his guns to the Orioles clubhouse, but Scott collected two of Baltimore’s three RBI on Wednesday. While Scott turns 32 this season, he could be a deep sleeper, especially in AL-only leagues. The Orioles offense should be better in 2010 with Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold all a year older and Miguel Tejada perhaps recapturing some of that old magic. With back-back 23+ HR seasons, it seems reasonable for Scott to smash 25 HR and pick up 80 RBI in 2010.
Jonathan Sanchez (SF) - Sanchez pitched excellent on Wednesday, striking out five in three innings while allowing three hits and, most importantly, no walks. With a career BB/9 of 4.7, Sanchez needs to harness his stuff and throw more strikes. If he can cut his walk rate, you’re looking at a very intriguing pitcher with outstanding strikeout potential (9.3 career K/9). If you’re searching for a late round SP, Sanchez could pay big dividends.
Carlos Zambrano (CHC) - El Toro was El Stinko on Wednesday, yielding five ER and six hits in just three innings against the Giants. As he enters his age-29 season, Zambrano isn’t the same guy who in 2006 posted a 3.41 ERA and struck out 210 batters. He should still keep the ERA in the high 3s, but his total strikeouts are down because he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to pitch 200 innings in a season the past three years. Bottom line: he’s a solid No. 3 starter with a low ceiling.
Matt Holliday (STL) - First Pujols and then Holliday. The entire city of St. Louis must be in a state of emergency. In reality, the Cardinals once again played the caution card and allowed their other big slugger an extra day to rest his sore rib cage. It’s nothing major and the left fielder should be back in action soon. Holliday likely won’t slug over .600 in 2010 like he did in 63 games with St. Louis last season, but based off past performance, he’s a very safe bet for 25 HRs, 100 RBI, .310 batting average, and double digit steals.
Jim
Mar 11, 10 at 01:00 AM
Very interesting article. Good use of facts and I agree with many of your points.