Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutcheon - McCutcheon is one of the game’s better young hitters and one of the few reasons for hope for Pirates’ fans in the coming years. He is a young and exciting player, and if his pre-season chatter has some truth to it, he could be even more exciting on the base paths this season. McCutcheon has vowed to run more this season, and perhaps more importantly, Pittsburgh manager John Russell has said himself that he would like to see McCutcheon run more. Last season, McCutcheon stole 22 bases in 108 games. Perhaps a future indication he might run more, along with his pre-season comments, is his success rate from a year ago of 81.5%. If we add his AAA numbers from last year to that total, he stole 32 out of 39 bases for a success rate of 82%. That’s a very impressive rate, especially for a rookie, let alone a rookie who was caught 19 times in 53 times (just a 64% success rate) a year prior. Clearly, McCutcheon dedicated himself to learning the nuances of the running game last season and looks to learn even more as he heads into this season. As a result, consider our current projection of 29 steals a conservative one; McCutcheon could easily approach 40+ over a full season in the majors.
Bobby Crosby - Crosby expects to receive significant playing time for his new team this season. Well, if he can stay healthy that is. Crosby, in his last five seasons since his AL ROY season of 2004, has played over 100 games just once. He blasted 22 HR in that ROY campaign, but his power numbers have dropped significantly since then. In his first two seasons (’03 and ’04) he posted HR/FB% of 14.3% and 11.3%. Here are his numbers in that category the past 4 seasons: 9.1/8.8/4.2/7.6. He has not made any significant strides in his plate discipline, and he has posted two consecutive career lows in line drive rates at 15.9%, then 15.3%. So, Pirates fans shouldn’t hope too hard for Crosby to experience any sort of resurgence because it’s not likely to happen. It doesn’t seem too long ago he flashed some serious potential, but he is already 30 YO with no statistical indications of a turnaround on the horizon any time soon.
Cincinnati Reds
Aroldis Chapman - It would be insane of me to not comment on Chapman’s first Spring Training appearance. He picked up the victory against Kansas City by working two scoreless innings in which he walked just one batter and allowed just one hit while striking out three batters. Those numbers are good, but what is impressive is how he got to those numbers. Chapman’s fastball was measured as high as 99 (even 100 mph according to one scout), and it was 99 with command according to manager Dusty Baker. We currently have Chapman at an ADP in the 25th round in 12 team leagues. With this outing he should already start to move up draft boards. One thing that separates Chapman from the game’s other prospects this spring (i.e. Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg) is his contract. He has signed a 6 year contract, so the Reds don’t have the same worries as other teams in the sense that financial obligations and service time are less of a factor in determining whether or not Chapman begins the season with the ML club. So, a few more outings like this, and Chapman could earn a spot in the rotation right out of the gate.
Drew Stubbs - Possibly lost in the shuffle of Chapman’s debut was Drew Stubbs blasting a go-ahead two run homer in the third inning. Stubbs is a quality sleeper selection this year, as he is likely to earn the everyday CF and lead off spots, although with Dusty Baker you never know. He is a real speed threat and should score plenty of runs. Between AAA and the majors last season, Stubbs stole 56 bases in 68 attempts. He has 50 steal potential right away, and Fantistics has him projected to swipe 37 bags this year. However, potential owners shouldn’t be deceived by his HR output last season. Stubbs homered 8 times in his first go around at the major league level in just 180 at bats. However, he has never throughout his minor league career been anything close to a power hitter. So, to extrapolate Stubbs’ HR production from last season over a full season’s worth of at bats would be nonsensical. He is only likely to hit around 10 or so. Fantistics has him projected for 9. Stubbs’ speed and talent still make him an excellent sleeper selection, but just realize what you’re going to get with him.
Colorado Rockies
Todd Helton - It’s always difficult to see some of our favorite players give way to father time and fail to produce with the bat as they once did. Such has been the case with Todd Helton for a few years now. Helton still has an amazing EYE (1.22 the past two seasons) and a solid LD% (24.7% in ’09), which is amazing considering his age (36 YO) and chronic back problems. So, he still has a shot at hitting .300. Unfortunately, he has no power whatsoever. Since Helton first saw major league playing time (1997), he never posted an ISO below .200 until 2006. Since then, though, his ISO’s have fallen off quite a bit: 174/.174/.124/.164 in ’06-’09. In ’02 – ’06, his HR/FB% dropped steadily: 17.1/16.4/15.3/11/7.5, and they have not recovered since. It’s the same story with any of Helton’s power stats, including XBH%. So, while the batting average and name recognition may catch your eye, he really isn’t someone to target, even very late in drafts. You are better off drafting a Nick Johnson or a Matt LaPorta, two players who at least have some upside, rather than living in the glory days and taking Helton, who is being draft a round or two ahead of Johnson and LaPorta on average.
Aaron Cook - In yesterday’s projection blog, it was noted that Cook’s sinker was working very well. This is vital to Cook’s success. He is successful because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher (57.5% GB rate for his career), which helps to negate his subpar career K/9 of 3.71. Cook has a very good chance of posting one of the better seasons of his career this year. His K/9 have been trending upward (3.31/4.09/4.44 the past three seasons), and his HR/FB% of 14.2% last season was out of line with his career mark, which is 4 percentage points lower, meaning his HR allowed total should come down a bit in ‘10.
Kevin Slowey SP (MIN) - Slowey might make for a better value pick than his counterpart Scott Baker. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more hype surrounding Slowey. At age 25, he’s three years younger than Baker. His K/9 last year of 7.44 is better than any mark Baker has posted in the majors. Also, Slowey’s control is outstanding, to the tune of a 5 or better K/BB ratio in each of the past two seasons. Baker has always been solid in this category as well, yet his career best K/BB mark is 3.88. Slowey is a FB risky pitcher (career .71 GB/FB ratio), but so is Baker (career .74 GB/FB ratio, .71 in ’09). Due to his wrist surgery and high ERA and WHIP in ‘09, 4.86 and 1.41 respectively, comes in ranked pretty low on most draft day lists. However, he had a very unlucky .352 BABIP last season, which is largely responsible for the inflated ERA and WHIP numbers. With a normalization of his BABIP and good health (so far, so good), there’s no reason why Slowey won’t come close to Baker’s final numbers at an ADP of four rounds later, and because of his youth he has more upside than Baker.
Jimmy Rollins SS (PHI) - Rollins should bounce back this year, particularly in the batting average department. His singles averages from ’05 to ‘8 are .245/.212/.228/.217. Yet, he posted a .186 singles average last season. His LD% was right in line with his ’06 and ’07 marks, and his EYE of .63 was right in line with his career mark of .61. So, with that taken into consideration, we can determine Rollins experienced a great deal of bad luck last season. This year his singles average should normalize, resulting in a heavy spike in batting average from a year ago.
Adrian Beltre 3B (BOS) - Many times when a player moves from a lesser known market to a popular market, he automatically becomes overvalued in the fantasy world. Well, that could be the case with Beltre, who has moved from Seattle to Boston. The bottom line is he was acquired by Boston for his glove, not his bat. Certainly, the move from Safeco to Fenway is a favorable one for Beltre, but it should help mask his decline more so than bump up his production. He has never had a great EYE, but last year it was terrible, at a career low .26. Meanwhile, his HR/FB% also dipped to a career low 5.6%, as did his .114 ISO. Oh, and while we’re at it his LD% was…you guessed it, a career low (16.4%) Beltre may not post numbers that low again this season, but his offense is in serious decline.
Gio Gonzalez SP (OAK) - For those of you looking for a spec pick in deeper leagues, Gonzalez isn’t a bad choice. His ability to make hitters swing and miss gives him more upside than most pitchers that will be drafted as late as him. In over 132 major league innings spanning ’08 and ’09, Gonzalez has struck out 9.70 batters per 9 IP. Last season in just 100 IP, he posted a solid 46.1% ground ball rate. If Gonzalez is able to get his horrendous control (5.49 career BB/9) in check, he could post a breakout season.
Barry Zito SP (SF) - On the first of this month, Paul pointed out Zito’s improvements in both his walk and k rates, which have left him a relevant fantasy SP once again. So, what got into Zito? Well, it appears that Zito threw his slider last season far more than ever before. He threw it 18.6% of the time, which is more than triple the rate at which he threw it from 2002-2009 (5.9%). It was Zito’s most effective pitch by far; he was a 14.7 runs above average pitcher while throwing his slider. The result can be seen most dramatically in the contact rate of opposing hitters versus Zito. For the past three seasons, hitters have made contact over 88% of the time, at least, on Zito’s pitches inside of the strike zone, but that number came down to 86.7% last season. Look for Zito to continue to rely on that slider once again this season.
Josh Willingham OF (WASH) - We have Willingham pegged as a possible 30+HR candidate. He posted an okay EYE last season of .59, and his solid HR/FB% of 17.4% was not that out of the ordinary for Willingham. He has always flashed power, with a career HR/FB% of 14.4%. His XBH% has always been solid (9.8/9.4/9.9 in ‘06/’07/’08), but last year it made a jump to 10.6%. If you are lacking power late in the draft, Willingham is a safe bet for at least 20 homers. The Fantistics projection for him is 30 HR.
David DeJesus OF (KC) - DeJesus is a nice a all-around player to nab at the very ends of drafts. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, but for where he will be drafted he does a little bit everything. Fantistics has him projected for 14 HR and 10 SB along with a .287 BA. He is also a safe pick. In seven MLB seasons, he has posted an MLB average below .280 just once, and for the last two seasons he has scored at least 70 runs and driven in at least 70 as well.
Placido Polanco 3B (PHI) - Polanco was signed this past off season to fill the Phillies’ void at 3B. Polanco has always had a good EYE, career .80, and that has not changed in recent years. That, combined with his extremely solid career contact rate of 93%, makes him an ideal two hole hitter for the Phillies. Look for him to score plenty of runs while hitting around .300 all season long.
Randy Ruiz DH (TOR) - For those of you in AL only leagues desperate for power late in the draft, Randy Ruiz should see over 400 at bats while getting most of the playing time at DH for Toronto. He hit 10 HR in just 33 games as a Blue Jay last season and has always flashed power throughout his minor league career. Just don’t expect it to come with a good batting average, despite mostly good batting averages in the minors. Those batting averages were heavily influenced by high BABIP that Ruiz is unlikely to match at the major league level. Also, Ruiz strikes out…a lot. His K% in the minors has consistently been above 25%, and in two brief major league stints, one last season and one the year prior, Ruiz struck out 31.6% of the time in 115 at bats. Fantistics has him projected to hit 24 HR with a .269 average.
