Cincinnati Reds
Chris Dickerson - Dickerson is a tad upset after he was passed over for a shot at the Reds’ CF job, which is likely to go to rookie Drew Stubbs. This leaves Dickerson most likely in a platoon situation with Johnny Gomes at LF. Dickerson does offer some speed, as Fantistics has him projected for 15 stolen bases in just 357 at bats. Dickerson has flashed speed at the minor league level swiping 30 bags over AA-AAA in 2007 and 31 bags over AAA-ML in 2008. However, he is unlikely to hit for a good average, as he has struck out an awful lot throughout his entire professional career (although he does have a decent walk rate). In his first go around at AAA in 2007, over 354 at bats, Dickerson struck out 37% of the time, and he had three other stints at professional levels in which he struck out a third of the time. Also, in brief stints at the major league level the past two seasons, Dickerson has hit just .259/.362/.345 (AVG/OBP/SLG) verses LHP. Clearly, he is better suited for the platoon situation that he is being given rather than an everyday starter.
Joey Votto - Votto is really a special talent. He has an okay EYE of .66 and a whopping XBH% of 13.6%. Good news for Votto in the power department is he developed more loft in his swing last season. His FB% grew from 30.7% in his rookie season to 39.3% last season. He was also better at keeping pitchers honest, as you can tell by his increased walk rate. In ’08 Votto walked 10% of the time, which is right around the league average, but that grew a respectable amount to 12.9% last season. This should also aid Votto in his developing power as he forces pitchers to come into the strike zone. Fantistics currently has him projected as the 11th rated hitter in 5x5 roto leagues, which makes him a steal in the mid third round, which is where his current ADP is.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Lastings Milledge - Pirates fans are hoping for a breakout season from Milledge, a former top prospect in the Mets organization, quoting his new sense of maturity and stable playing time situation as catalysts for such a season. Milledge is just 24 YO and certainly has time to turn things around, but I don’t see anything more than an average to below average season on the horizon. He has average power (career 9.5 HR/FB%, 5.3 last season), and his 4 year ISO’s of .139/.174/.134/.094 don’t indicate any power surge in the near future. His low walk rate (career 6.1%, 4.9 last season) and career EYE of .34 means he’s swinging at pitchers’ pitches most of the time, making him a batting average risk. My main problem with Milledge is the lack of improvement in his game over stints in the major leagues in 4 straight years (166, 184, 534, 244 at bats from ’06-’09), and as much as it’s nice to hear about a player maturing off the field, it’s doubtful to make him a more patient or powerful hitter.
Zach Duke - On the surface it appears that Duke could be poised for a breakout season; he’s 26 YO and his ERA’s have been trending downward: 5.53/4.82/4.06 the past three seasons. His biggest asset is his ability to induce ground balls, which he has 49.1% of the time throughout his career. Still, those expecting Duke to continue to improve and post the first sub-4 ERA (over a full season) of his career better think again. He does have a low walk rate, but his career K/9 of 4.57 is extremely poor. It’s hard to be an effective pitcher when striking out a batter just once every other inning. Furthermore, his 4.06 ERA last season was aided by a lucky BABIP of .296 when compared to his career average of .321. His FIP and xFIP ERA’s were 4.24 and 4.31 respectively. Also, his LOB% was 72.6%; it was 67.9 and 67.2 in ’07 and ’08. In 2010 his LOB% again should be around 67-68%, rather than what it was last season. Duke simply does not strike out enough batters to maintain that strand rate. As a result, Fantistics has Duke projected for a 4.64 ERA.
Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez - One of our favorites to breakout at the OF position this year is Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez came over to Colorado from Oakland in the Matt Holliday deal. He is a nice 5-tool player, who could approach 20/20 status this year. Fantistics has him projected for 24 HR and 24 SB. He made huge improvements at the plate last season. In 2008, he struggled mightily in 302 at bats for Oakland. He barely walked (4.1% of the time) and struck out an awful lot (26.7% of the time) leading to a horrendous .16 EYE. Last season that EYE grew dramatically in 278 at bats for Colorado as it finished the season at .40, thanks to Gonzalez more than doubling his walk rate. He also flashed tremendous power (a 16.7HR/FB%) and got decent loft (.97 GB/FB rate) giving him immediate 30 HR potential, all without damage to his number of line drives. Gonzalez smoked the ball to the tune of a 23.4% LD rate. If Gonzalez can maintain that LD rate and continue to see improvement in his EYE, there is some upside to our projected BA of .282. He’ll put up Carlos Beltran type numbers, except Gonzalez has more upside and is being drafted nearly four rounds later.
Jeff Francis - Francis is one of the Rockies’ major stories this Spring Training, as he attempts to complete his recovery from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. So far so good, as his early Spring Training pitching sessions have come without drawing any red flags. He will pitch in an intra-squad game against the Giants on Friday, and a successful outing there would go a long way towards Francis making the Colorado rotation. This would certainly be good news for the Rockies, but they shouldn’t expect another 17 win season out of Francis, even if he is fully recovered, like the one he achieved in 2007 (his last full season before the shoulder injury). His deserved win total was 14, and while he is a perfectly adequate starter, he is far from the ace that some in Colorado expect. He has a low K/9 of 6.20, and his K/BB ratio is an unspectacular 2.03. Meanwhile, his career GB% of 42.7 is not enough to make up for his mediocre K rate.
Aaron Hill (TOR) - I had Aaron Hill pegged as a potential breakout player last season, and he followed through big time. However, if he hopes to repeat his ’09 season, he is going to have to do away with some disturbing second half trends. Over that second half, Hill started chasing pitches, and his overall numbers reflect that as his BB rate of 5.7% was the worst of his career. Meanwhile, he swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 26.3% of the time or 1.3 percentage points more than the league average and more disturbingly 4.8 percentage points more than his career average. Hill can certainly approach his ’09 numbers again this season, but not if he continues to chase pitches.
Casey Kotchmann (SEA) - Kotchmann hopes to hit for more power this season, but that’s a song and dance I’ve heard before. I was real high on Kotchmann heading into the 2008 season, but neither in that season nor last season did he take any strides towards developing enough power to make him a factor at first base in fantasy baseball. His career HR/FB% of 8.9% is below the major league average for ALL hitters, let alone first basemen. To make matters worse, Kotchmann’s GB/FB ratios of the past three seasons are 1.52/1.78/1.75; those are more in line with speedsters that try to hit the ball on the ground rather than a 1B attempting to develop power. Don’t buy Kotchmann’s desire to hit for more power until you see a quantifiable progression.
Rickie Weeks (MLW) - Weeks is a classic risk/reward pick. He is very injury prone (averaging 350 at bats a season over 5 seasons), and he will always be a batting average risk (26.3 K%). However, as per usual for Weeks, he comes with a lot of upside. For starters, he does have the ability to get on base despite his high K rate because he walks 11% of the time for his career. He also has a lot of power for a 2B; his career HR/FB% is 12.5%. Weeks enters the season at the peak age of 27, and if he can stay healthy and finally get a little bit of luck (.212 and .215 singles averages in ‘07/’08), he could have a breakout year. If he could ever get a full season’s worth of at bats, 20/20 is a near certainty, and his RS potential is unbelievable with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder hitting behind him.
Nolan Reimold (BAL) - Reimold is poised for a breakout season. He posted a respectable .61 EYE in his rookie year, and his outside swing percentage of 20.5% (nearly 5 percentage points below league average) demonstrates his ability to stay patient at the plate at a young age. This makes him low risk in the batting average department for a young OF, and it is not at the expense of power. Reimold has always posted above average ISO’s. Last season he had a ridiculous .349 ISO in 109 AAA at bats (his first go around there might I add) before making his major league debut. He then went on to post a .187 ISO, 32 points above league average, in 358 at bats with the big league club.
Roy Halladay (PHI) - Halladay has been one of the league’s top pitchers for years, and his move to Philly from Toronto should only up his stock. I mean, we all saw what Javier Vazquez was able to accomplish after switching to the NL last season. More important than that, Halladay goes from facing three top offensive clubs (TB, BOS, NYY) on a consistent basis to facing a much far less challenging division. Oh, and he also goes from a perennial non-contender to the NL’s World Series representative in each of the past two seasons. It’s scary to ponder the thought, but this could be Halladay’s best season yet.
Matt Cain (SF) - Cain had a breakout season last year. His ERA dropped almost a full point, and his win total almost doubled. So, has the hyped Matt Cain arrived? Well, he’s certainly a quality pitcher but I doubt if he’s ever able to repeat his ’09 season. In his first full season he posted a very encouraging K/9 of 8.45, yet he has not been able to maintain that posting K/9’s of 7.34/7.69/7.07 the past three seasons. His career K/BB ratio is just 2.09, and he’s a fly ball pitcher. I see nothing but downside here. His ’09 numbers were heavily aided by an 81.68 LOB% and .268 BABIP. Both of those are career outliers for Cain, and when those numbers regress heavily towards his career averages it will result in a spike in both ERA and WHIP this year.
Chris Coghlan (FLA) - Coghlan comes with a lot less hype than most ROY winners. As noted in the projection notes, his XBH% of 9.1 was higher than his minor league numbers. So, we should see that regress this season, as will his batting average due to an unsustainable .304 singles average from a year ago. Now, Coghlan is a .300 hitter (excellent EYE’s throughout his professional career). However, with an expected decrease in XBH and not a lot of speed, Coghlan loses a lot of value if his BA goes southwards from .320 to .300 since he does not bring a whole lot to the table otherwise, particularly for an OF.
Brett Anderson (OAK) - Anderson is one of my favorite picks for a breakout pitcher. He has two things making him underrated: not a lot of exposure out in Oakland and an ERA that was artificially high (4.06) thanks to a 67% LOB%. However, his supporting numbers were excellent, particularly for a rookie. Anderson had a K/BB ratio of 3.33, and he induced groundballs 50.9% of the time leading to FIP and xFIP ERA’s of 3.69 and 3.61 respectively. He also got stronger as the season went on. In his last 5 GS, Anderson had 31 K’s in 28.2 IP while walking just 4 batters, which makes me think we could see an uptick in his K rate in his second season. If that’s the case, he could be scary good.
Dave Bush (MLW) - Bush is a sleeper in NL only leagues. His 6.38 ERA from a year ago should make him undervalued in all formats, but he is due to rebound. Fantistics has him pegged for a 4.47 ERA, 11 wins, 166 K and a 1.25 WHIP, a HUGE improvement over last season. Bush experienced a ton of bad luck. His BABIP of .324 was 32 points above his career average, and his LOB% of 63.3% was over five percentage points lower than his career average. This occurred despite Bush posting one of the better K/9 of his career (7.01) and a respectable K/BB ratio of 2.41.
Rafael Soriano (TB) - For those of you who want a top flight closer without using one of your first ten draft picks, Soriano is your guy. He does come with some injury risk, but he has all of the components of a dominating closer. We have him ranked 5th out of all RP, with the four ahead of him going 3-5 rounds earlier. Last season, Soriano struck out a whopping 12.13 batters per 9 IP, and he kept his walk totals under control leading to a 3.78 K/BB ratio.
