Los Angeles Angels – Is Pitching Already a Problem? – Opening day is just a week or so away but the Angels already have a few concerns with their pitching rotation. Two of their starters, Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir, missed their scheduled starts and although the Angels are downplaying these missed outings, you have to be a little worried. Both Santana and Kazmir have had injuries over the past couple of years. Santana's issues stems from an inflamed bursa sac in his elbow after banging it against some furniture. Not sure how hard he banged the elbow, but one would think that it wouldn't keep him out of the rotation for that long. But you never know. Kazmir's issue sounds a little more serious because he is expressing that there is some tightness in his shoulder and there is little doubt the Angels will measure on the side of caution where is he concerned. Both pitchers come with risk on draft day. Combined they averaged 143 innings last year which makes it tough to give them your full backing and they both tend to be very hittable pitchers. Kazmir allowed 9.1 H/9 and keeping pace with him Santana allowed 10.2 H/9. If either of these pitchers miss any starts Matt Palmer or Sean O'Sullivan would be the likely replacements, neither of whom have had impressive springs. Palmer has logged 6 innings in games and has an ERA of 12.79 and O'Sullivan has seen 11 innings of action with a 7.94 ERA. Both of these players are low-grade options for fantasy. Monitor the Santana/Kazmir health carefully knowing that there is a history of injury there. They are both risky options and if you do decide to draft one or the other make sure you have enough in reserves to absorb potential down time.
Los Angeles Angels – Movable Pieces – Earlier this week the Angels fielded their potential opening day lineup and it looked pretty solid from top to bottom. The probably batting order could look something like this: Erick, Aybar, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Hideki Matsui, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Howie Kendrick, Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood. Manager Mike Scioscia has been boasting about the power potential of the lineup with many regulars having the ability to hit 20+ home runs. From my viewpoint, I see about 6 guys in the lineup that could do that. But the one guy who is left out of the lineup that figures to play an important role this season is Maicer Izturis. Izturis signed a 3 year extension in the off season with the Angels paying him $2.6 million this year. In the past, I have spouted about how Scioscia loves to move players around and have interchangeable parts and Izturis figures to be the manager's main pawn in his tactical maneuvers. He will probably be used to spell Aybar, Wood and perhaps even Kendrick in the lineup fairly frequently. In fact, he may get so much playing time for a bench player that he may almost be considered worthy of drafting in deeper leagues. He comes into this year having posted a .300 BA with 437 plate appearances last year. He can be a decent source of speed and has a good amount of plate discipline taking an average of 3.82 per plate appearance which has resulted in a decent OBP of .359. Even his RAR was 28.2 showing his value over the average replacement player. The caveat to all of this is that Izturis' playing time may cut into the playing time for Aybar, Wood and Kendrick which devalues each one of those players on draft day. But such is how Scioscia likes to manage which makes picking Angel players for your team sometimes difficult and risky.
Houston Astros – State of the Starting Pitching – The starting rotation which has taken a bit of a hit this week. Both Brett Myers and Roy Oswalt have been nursing ailments. Oswalt is suffering from a strained hamstring which may put his opening day start in jeopardy although at this point its difficult to determine. As I've outlined before this seems to be a continuing trend for Oswalt with every season dealing with some sort of ailment whether its his back or now his leg. The Astros have downplayed the recent injury but you shouldn't as we have seen regression from Oswalt pretty steadily over the past 3 seasons with his ERA ballooning and his innings decreasing. His fastball, while still in the 92-93 mph range has good velocity, the effectiveness of it took a big hit last year with a wFB of 1.3 which measures the effectiveness defined in runs above the average fastball. As comparison Oswalt's fastball had a wFB in 2008 of 8.0 and in 2007 of 14.0. This may be due to his injuries so a healthy Oswalt could help a team, but staying away from the injury bug is a big “What If”. Fantasy owners will often go back to the well of big name players assuming proven quality of performance form year to year. It's difficult to move away from that known player when his skills starts to wain. Oswalt very well could be falling into that category.
Brett Myers' injury is a strained groin that Astros don't expect to keep Myers out for that long. He will be the #3 starter for the 'Stros this season and his success and the teams' will be very much intertwined if they have any chance to compete with their division rivals. So far this spring, Myers has struggled and isn't inspiring much confidence for those fantasy owners who were thinking about his sleeper potential on draft day. He has opponents hitting .333 and a 6.05 ERA this spring. Even though Myers has always been a decent source of strikeouts, he gives up a lot of hits which will keep him from having a competitive WHIP. Perhaps the biggest red flag concerning Myers is that his FIP was 6.14 with a LOB% of 83.1% which didn't really much up with his ERA last year of 4.84. What does this mean? Well, in a Astros lineup where generating runs will be hard to come buy, Myers is looking like he is on a downward trend and should be only used in very deep NL leagues.
Houston Astros – State of the Relief Pitching – Nothing has been declared officially by the Astros as to who the closer will be between Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that Lindstrom will get the nod over Lyon as Lindstrom has has a marvelous spring and it would be hard to deny him the closer role. He came to compete for the role and compete he did logging 6.2, a 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and striking out 6. Lyon got into games a little later this spring but has has done well in 3 appearances posting a 3.00 ERA. Lyon should be the setup guy for Lindstrom but be wary of both. If one falters the other may get a shot at the closer duties and unfortunately that will affect the value of both players. Also neither one is going to remind anyone of Mariano Rivera. Lyon had the better season in '09 with an ERA of 2.86 compared to Lindstrom's ERA of 5.89. But Lyon was aided by an unreal BHIP of .231 whereas Lindstrom's was .331 so there should be some better days ahead for Lindstrom and some tougher times for Lyon. If you have other options at closer, use them. But if options are limited you can take a flier on Lindstrom as he will probably have more save opportunities than Lyon since one would expect the Astros to play a lot of close games this year because of efficiencies in their run production.
Atlanta Braves – In the Outfield – Well, if you were hiding underneath a rock you may not have heard the news that Jason Heyward will be starting in the outfield for the Braves opening day. Otherwise, I think this news has been broadcasted coast to coast with as much attention as the new healthcare reform. Heyward will be an exciting rookie to follow as he already has the inside track on N.L. ROY honors and given a big lg up as he will start with the parent club from day one of the season. Heyward is worth of draft pick in the middle rounds and should produce somewhere around a .280 BA, with 15-20 home runs and around 70-80 RBI. Not too shabby. The announcement that Heyward earned one of the outfield spots puts Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera on the outside sharing time for one position. Diaz had a pretty good year in '09 batting .313 in 371 AB's but he also had a very high BHIP at .382 which would indicate a drop off for him. Cabrera had a reasonable year as well batting 275 in 485 AB's. But with an OPS of .752, he doesn't look as valuable without his Yankee pinstripes. Funny thing about those pinstripes, they seem to increase the fantasy value of any player who wears them. Both Diaz and Cabrera could have been options in deeper leagues but the Heyward nabbing one of the outfield spots will cut their playing time in half as they will probably platoon the position. Unfortunately, under this scenario, they both lose fantasy value.
Atlanta Braves – The Pitching Rotation – If the Braves are to be contenders for the division this year, it will be in large part because of their pitching. The staff has talent, some depth and will more than likely keep them in many games. I've already praised Hanson as the ace of the staff and given props to Hudson who I think will have a sleeper type of year. Derek Lowe is a serviceable pitcher to any fantasy staff and has done a nice job in the Grapefruit League. He has an ERA of 4.00 and has given up a hit an inning but he hasn't walked a batter all spring so his WHIP stands at 1.05. He started off strong last year and then stumbled as the year progressed but he can be helpful for spot starts here and there and when match ups are favorable. Kenshin Kawakami also had a decent year in '09 with a 3.85 ERA but his BHIP was slightly low at .289 but he should produce similar results as last year with perhaps just a tick of regression. Jair Jurrjens is the most interesting pitching option because last year he planted himself firmly on the fantasy radar and became highly sought after this season in drafts. Jurrjens had been dealing with some shoulder issues but he pitched very solidly on Saturday and should be ready for the season. But be careful about drafting Jurrjens too high in your draft because he is heading for a downward trend. He had a very shiny 2.60 ERA last year in 215 innings. But his FIP was more than a full run higher at 3.66 and his BHIP was on the low side at .273. Throw in his LOB% bordered almost on 80% (8% above the MLB average) and you have a guy with a sore shoulder who could be heading for some rocky waters. By all means, draft Jurrjens. He is a quality arm on a quality team, but back off of him if you think he is a first or even second tier pitcher. OK,I'll concede low second tier, but that's as high as I'll go. If anything of these guys should falter Kris Medlen is waiting in the wings and has a live arm with a K/9 of 9.6 last season and could be someone with a lot of upside if he get the chance.
Cole Hamels (Phillies—SP) Cole Hamels is one of those players who could have a bounce back season. Hamels ERA in '08 was 3.09 and then it jumped up to 4.32 in '09. More than a run difference. But here's the crazy part: Hamels had very similar numbers when you compare last season to '08. His K/9 was 7.81 in '09 and 7.76 in '08. His BB/9 was 2.00 in '09 and 2.10 in '08. Even his HR/9 was very similar with 1.12 in '09 and 1.11 in '08. And here's the really interesting stat: his FIP was 3.72 in both '08 and '09! If you had asked me last year to predict Hamels' '09 season, I would have said that he was due for a downward trend because his FIP of 3.72 was much higher than his ERA of 3.09 and his BHIP was .270 which meant that his luck in '08 would probably not carry over into '09. But now, a year later, Hamels looks like he is heading for a better year. He pitched better than his 4.32 ERA would indicate and his BHIP last year was .325 which means that he didn't get too many breaks. You probably won't find a better example of a pitcher who has pitched very consistent from one season to the next but with different outcomes. The luck factor tells the story and Hamels could be a good bargain if others are shying away from because of his numbers from last year.
Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks – 3B) What I'm about to write may not be the popular perspective but here goes: The home run is a great weapon. It scores a lot of runs in one shot and Mark Reynolds will more than likely hit that 40 home run plateau again in '10. He will even grab some stolen bases which makes him very valuable if you're in a traditional 5x5 league keeping track of home runs, RBI and stolen bases. I think Reynolds is a real asset in that format. But if you are in a points based league, Reynolds may not be the best option despite the prolific home run rate. As we know Reynolds will strikeout 200+ times this season which if your league dings you for K's will take off a considerable amount from your score over the course of the season. But even if strikeouts don't hurt you, Reynolds will strikeout almost 40% of the time. That means 40% of the time Reynolds will provide no offensive contribution whatsoever. No hit, no double, no walk, not even a sacrifice fly. He did manage to hit .260 last season but that average will be difficult for him to sustain this year since he has a contract rate of just 62%.
Matt LaPorta (Indians—OF) The Cleveland Indians announced that Matt LaPorta would be their opening day first baseman with Russell Branyan starting the season on the DL. LaPorta is one of the Indians top prospects who came over to Cleveland from Milwaukee in the CC Sabathia trade. LaPorta had a brief stint with the parent club where he produced a slash line of .254/.308/.442. Not great. However, in 3 seasons in minors LaPorta has put together a .291 average and a .941 OPS. That's more like it. LaPorta has good power that should improve with more major league experience. The other plus is that LaPorta has been only eligible in the outfield and with his new duties in the infield he will now be eligible at first base too which will increase his fantasy value. Watch how LaPorta does at first because if he does well enough, he may displace Branyan when he is ready to come back. He could be a decent draft choice in deeper leagues.
Milton Bradley (Mariners – OF) It's tough to figure out from season to season what you're going to get out of Milton Bradley. Actually, it's tough enough to figure out if the team that he starts the season with will be the team he finishes the season with. For now, he is wearing a Mariners' hat and the team announced that Bradley would bat in the cleanup spot which should provide him with some RBI opportunities with Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins batting in front of him. Seattle is hoping that Bradley looks more like the '08 version of himself where he batted .321 in 414 AB's and had a wOBA of .423. But realistically, Bradley probably won't come close to those numbers in '10 and will probably look more like the guy who played for the Cubs last year. But a happy Bradley could be a productive Bradley and while there's no measure to gauge a player's contentment with his situation, it's probably best to look at Bradley on the more conservative side also knowing that he will miss approximately 40 games during the course of the year for various reasons (not just limited to injury). If he could put up numbers around 18 HR/75 RBI/.275 AVG, he may be a workable option in deeper leagues, but you will most certainly need to have a decent replacement player in reserve.
Francisco Liriano (Twins-- SP) There has been some speculation over the past week or so that Francisco Liriano might be a candidate for the closers job in Minnesota. That question has been answered as the Twins announced that they will go with a closer by committee and the committee does not include Liriano. So he will find himself in the rotation which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Although he may never recapture the effectiveness of his rookie year, Liriano should be able to put together a better season that what we saw last year. His 5.80 ERA should decline as he had a higher than normal BHIP .324 and a poor LOB% of 66.3%. Both of these numbers should swing more favorably in his direction which should result in a better year. He is still a god source of strikeouts but he has not been able to get his fastball up to the 95 mph velocity he had in '06. Now it lingers around 91-92 mph and as a result his wFB last year was -25.6 which indicates that his fastball was more than 25 runs below in effectiveness than the average. Hopefully, this will improve this season and so far this spring Liriano has 22 strikeouts in 14 innings and has a 3.85 ERA. If Liriano can produce these kinds of numbers consistently throughout the year, he could be a great asset.
Hunter Pence (Astros – OF) Hopefully someone is paying attention to this guy because with Berkman in his final year with Houston and Carlos Lee not far behind, Hunter Pence could become the face of the Astros and this may be the year he steps it up in a big way. Pence has been progressively showing improvement from season to season in batting average ('08-.269, '09-.282), decreasing his strikeouts ('08 – 20.8%, '09-- 18.6%) and increasing his walks ('08—6.2%, '09 – 9.0%). Plus he has maintained good power with 25 home runs the past two seasons. As Dan noted, if Pence could increase his FB% up from 32%, we could see those home run numbers jump. And he may be doing that as Pence has 3 home runs this spring and has been unstoppable with .422 average and a 1.291. Pence is about to turn 27 next month and this could be the year that he puts it all together.
David Wright (Mets—3B) David Wright batted .306 last year and had an OBP of .389. He stole 27 bases and scored 88 runs. But all anyone talks about is the 10 home runs he hit last year as if he lost his power and CitiField is his Kryptonite. Well guess what? Wright has 4 home runs this spring in 41 AB's and a slugging of .682. Granted, this is the Grapefruit League and Tradition Field in Port St. Lucie is more the dimension of Shea than CitiField but from all indications Wright will not be altering his swing anymore to accommodate for CitiField. He may not hit 30 home runs but it would be safe to estimate that Wright will bounce back with 20+ home runs. Hopefully, he will also have a teammates that would avoid the DL where he doesn't feel like he has carry the team on his shoulders. This should aid him with RBI chances, more runs scored while still maintaining an OBP close to .400. Wright is still one of the top tier third baseman who fights to be on the field everyday. A true gamer and no one should shy away from him on draft because of home run woes from last season.
Yunel Escobar (Braves- SS) It's draft time and it's your turn and you need to fill your shortstop spot but Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are all off the board. However, Yunel Escobar is still available and it wouldn't be a bad move to sweep him up. Escobar may not be considered a top tier shortstop but he provides above average offensive production in a defensive oriented position. Last year Escobar batted .299 with 14 home runs, 89 runs scored. His biggest problem last year was his struggles against left-handed pitchers where he only batted .232 as opposed to .327 versus righties. What's interesting about Escobar is that he apparently knows his limitations against lefties as he showed far greater patience against them working out a 14.2% BB rate which was twice as much than right-handed pitchers. In fact, his overall EYE against lefties was 1.3 as opposed to 0.74 versus righties and his overall EYE was 0.92 which is excellent. If he can work on his hitting against lefties and bring that up to a respectable number, Escobar would be a consistent .300 hitter year in and year out to go along with a career OBP of .375. Lately, Escobar has been dealing with some back issues but he should be ready for opening day as the ailment doesn't appear to serious. If you miss out on the top tier shortstops, give Escobar a try as he should be in line for a solid season.
Jon Rauch (Twins –RP) There were many who were waiting for the news as to who would inherit the closer role for the Twins with Joe Nathan out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. It was announced that the Twins would go with closer by committee. For those who were counting on Jon Rauch to grab the job, there will be some disappointment as this isn't the greatest of news since the closing duties will now be shared. Rauch had the inside track on the job because of his previous experience as a closer in Washington and Arizona. He has the best peripherals of the bunch with a career K/9 of 7.36 and a BB/9 of 2.89. He's equally effective against right and left handed batters and has held the opposition to .238 batting average as a reliever for his career. If Rauch does well in the role, he may eventually win the job full-time. But for now, he is really only draftable if all the other closers who have their role defined are already off the board. Then Rauch may be worth a pick up.
Ian Desmond (Nationals—SS) The news came out today that the Nationals had decided that Ian Desmond would be the opening day shortstop over veteran Cristian Guzman. While this is surprising to both myself and Schuyler as he projected Desmond wouldn't break camp with the team, I agree with Schuyler that Desmond is probably not worth the 'sleeper” status unless you need a shortstop in deep leagues. Desmond essentially won the job over Guzman because of his defensive play and Guzman has been having shoulder issues which may (or may not) have figured into the decision. But Desmond has been doing a respectable job this spring batting .298 with an OBP of .365. He has also hit well in his time in the minors where he batted over .300 at both the Triple A and Double A levels last year. He will need to start strong and continue because Guzman is on the bench and will be ready to slip back into the role should Desmond falter. It's this uncertainty that makes Desmond a risky pick up.
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