2010 Preseason Prep - March 25, 2010

Cleveland Indians Right Fielder – After hitting .300/.394/.489 with 20 HRs and 20 steals in 2009, Shin-Soo Choo will once again roam right field for the Indians in 2010. Choo has an excellent eye (career OBP of .386), above average power (career .491 SLG%) and good speed (21 steals in 23 attempts in ’09). What he doesn’t have yet is the name recognition of a guy who can legitimately post a 25/25 season. This means you can likely scoop up Choo for a lower cost than his actual value. Take advantage now because all indicators point toward Choo having an even better ’10. He’s in his prime, turning 28 in July. When given regular at-bats the past two seasons, Choo has posted above average BB% of 11.9% in ’08 and 11.4% in ’09, respectively. His .946 OPS in ’08 and .883 OPS in ’09 indicate consistent power and on-base ability in more than 1,000 ABs. Finally, with Grady Sizemore at full strength, the addition of Russell Branyan, and Carlos Santana likely catching by mid-season, the Tribe’s lineup should improve in ’10, which means Choo will receive more opportunities to score and bat in runs. We project Choo to post a .282 average with 88 runs, 94 RBI, 24 HR and 20 steals, which might even be a tad conservative. Target Choo as a solid No. 2/excellent No. 3 outfielder in your drafts and auctions.

Cleveland Indians Shortstop – After playing primarily at second base during the second half of 2008 with Cleveland, Asdrubal Cabrera saw much more time last season at his natural position, shortstop. With dual eligibility, Cabrera and his fantasy owners enjoyed a productive ’09 as the former Mariners farmhand tallied 17 steals, 229 total bases and .308 AVG. While Cabrera did enjoy a .360 BABIP in ’09 and dropped his EYE from 0.59 to 0.49, he also improved his ISO from .108 to .130. That power increase, coupled with his young age, makes us think Cabrera could see a significant jump to 14 HRs this season. Like Choo, Cabrera will enjoy a better lineup around him and as the leadoff hitter should especially benefit from a healthy Grady Sizemore hitting in the two-hole. We like Cabrera for 86 runs, 19 steals and a .298 AVG, which makes him a playable starting shortstop and a very strong backup at a scarce position.

Seattle Mariners Second/Third Base – It’s less than two weeks until Opening Day and the Mariners officially announced that Chone Figgins will start the season at second base while Jose Lopez takes over third base duties. I talked about Figgins last week, so let’s focus on Lopez today.

The 26-year-old middle infielder is an interesting case study. On one hand he improved his power numbers last season by crushing 25 HRs and driving in 96 RBI (up from 17 HR/89 RBI in ’08). On the other hand, he is allergic to drawing a walk with just 54 in his last 1,340 ABs and he scored a meager 69 runs in ’09. Optimistically, Lopez increased his ISO to .191, despite a low BABIP of just .270, and tallied a career-high 42 doubles. Pessimistically, Lopez swung at 35% of pitches outside the strike zone and lowered his LD% to just 18.5%. All that said, a 2B/3B with 25 HR power has value in your league, so target Lopez as a cheap option at second or third base. Just make sure you can stomach Lopez’s low OBP and inability to score runs in Seattle’s offense. We predict 25 HRs, 78 runs scored, 88 RBI and a .277 AVG, so you can certainly do worse for your starting second or third baseman.

Seattle Mariners Shortstop – Unlike the past few seasons, there will be no battle to determine the starting shortstop on the Mariners heading into 2010. Defensive specialist Jack Wilson will handle the everyday duties as enters his first full season with Seattle. Unless you’re in a very deep AL-only league and desperate, Wilson likely offers little to your fantasy team in 2010. In nine big league seasons, he has a .268/.310/.374 slash line with just 61 career HRs. Wilson did catch lightening in a bottle during his only All-Star appearance as a member of the Pirates in 2004 by hitting .308 with 299 total bases. In 2007, Wilson posted his second best offense season by hitting .296 with a career-high 12 HRs. At 32 and after posting an OPS of .654 between Pittsburgh and Seattle last season, Wilson will be lucky to post more than half a dozen HRs and 50 RBI this season. If you’re considering Wilson for a roster spot at any point in ’10, it may be time to start preparing for fantasy football.

San Diego Padres Left Fielder – One of the top prospects in the Padres organization, Kyle Blanks didn’t disappoint when called up to the big league club in 2009. The outfielder/first baseman posted an impressive 140 OPS+ with 10 HRs, 22 RBI and .514 SLG% in 148 ABs. With Adrian Gonzalez handling first base duties until he’s traded at the All-Star break or after the season, Blanks has shifted to left field and should see 450-500 ABs in ’10. Definitely target Blanks as a second/third outfielder option as the kid has all kinds of power potential. He hit 24 HRs and drove in 107 RBI at High-A ball in ’07 and followed that season by hitting 20 HR and knocking in 75 RBI at AA ball in ’08. After starting the ’09 season with an .878 OPS in 233 ABs at AAA , Blanks got the call up and hit very well until a partial tear of the plantar fascia ended his season in mid-September.

Based off his high OBP and SLUG% in the minors, as well as an outstanding .264 ISO during his first major league experience, we predict Blanks can hit 28 HRs and drive in 86 with a full season of ABs in San Diego.

San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher (Chris Young) – It seems longer than two seasons ago that Chris Young was one of the better pitchers in the National League. In 2007, Young posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with 167 Ks in 173 IPs and allowed just 6.1 H/9. But injuries derailed Young’s ’08 and ’09 seasons as the big right-hander only recorded 178 combined IPs. When Young did pitch last season, it wasn’t pretty. He registered an ugly 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while allowing 8.3 H/9, 4.7 BB/9, and striking out only 5.9 batters per game. Most alarming, after sitting around 89 mph during his most successful seasons, Young lost velocity on his fastball by averaging just 85.8 mph in ’09. If Young doesn’t regain those three mph, it will be very difficult for him to rediscover his form from ’06 and ’07. We think Young will have a much more productive 2010 – although not close to his two best seasons –by throwing a 171 IPs, striking out 142 and recording a respectable 1.30 WHIP and 4.25 ERA. Not bad numbers for a guy at the backend of your fantasy team’s starting rotation.

Heath Bell – According to reports out of San Diego on Wednesday, the Padres are no longer actively shopping closer Heath Bell. This isn’t a huge surprise since Bell’s trade value will likely rise as the All Star Break nears and contending teams are more desperate for a closer. I still strongly believe Bell will be saving games for a different team by the end of 2010 based off the Padres payroll and unlikely ability to contend in the NL West. So far in spring training, Bell’s been his usual self – allowing just one earned run in six innings although he’s yet to strike out a batter. Keep Bell high on your draft or auction boards and don’t forget about possible replacement closers Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson for when San Diego finally does pull the trigger.

Torii Hunter – The Angels slugger connected for his first two HRs of the spring Wednesday and raised his preseason batting average to .400. Hunter turns 35 in July and for the past few seasons I’ve expected him to begin a steady decline, but he proves me wrong time and again by posting a .280 average with 20+ HRs and 15+ steals. Last season, Hunter actually recorded a career-best .873 OPS and improved his OBP to .366, although his TBs dropped for the third straight season. If you’re looking for a valuable third outfielder or utility option, you can do worse than our projections for Hunter -- 88 Runs, 94 RBI, 14 Steals, and 23 HR.

Raul Ibanez – Remember when the Raul Ibanez signing looked like a steal for the Phillies? After signing a 3-year, $30 million deal, the 34-year-old leftfielder hit for an unconscious 1.015 OPS, collected 168 TBs, 22 HRs and 60 RBI by the All-Star break last season. Then reality struck. Or, in this case, a heavy dose of regression to the mean. Ibanez looked awful at times during the second half, struggling to hit .232 with 12 HRs and a paltry 33 RBI. If keeper league Ibanez owners didn’t sell high during the first half of 2009, they might be stuck with damaged goods this season. While he experienced some bad luck from the first half to the second half with a BABIP drop of 37 points, luck alone doesn’t explain how poorly Ibanez swung the bat during the final few months of 2009. Keep in mind, for his career, Ibanez owns an .826 OPS in the first half and an .826 OPS in the second half. At 38 years old this June, he’s a risky pick to produce 30 HR and 100 RBI again in 2010.

Jason Bartlett – The Tampa Bay shortstop went 3-for-4 with two HRs on Wednesday to lead the Rays to a spring training victory over the Blue Jays. Bartlett surprised pretty much everyone in 2009 by improving his HR/FB from 0.9% in 2008 to a whopping 8.7%, which translated into a career-high 14 HRs. He also hit a cool .320 and posted a career-high .490 SLG% (topping his previous career-high in SLG% of .393). The batting average and home runs can be attributed to a very fortunate .364 BABIP and FB% increase from 30% to 39%. Both those figures are bound to hurt Bartlett in 2010. First, it’s difficult to maintain such a high BABIP. Second, while a flyball increase is just fine for a slugger who will hit more HRs if he elevates more flyballs, it’s not great for a 190lb shortstop who had never topped five HRs in a season prior to ’09. We project another 14 HRs and 30 steals for Bartlett, but I’d bet the under on both those figures.

Tim Hudson – Sleeper alert! Huddy continues to mow down hitters in spring training, notching six shutout innings on Wednesday and lowering his preseason ERA to just 1.35 in 20 innings of work. He’s not going to produce tons of Ks, but he can be a nice complement to your team’s starting rotation by providing good ERA, WHIP, and Wins. Don’t let last season’s injury scare you. The Braves felt comfortable enough with Hudson’s elbow to sign him to a 3-year, $27 million deal this offseason and you should feel good grabbing the right-hander as a nice value pick late in drafts or auctions.

Jeff Francoeur – Who hates taking a walk more than Jeff Francoeur? Ok, besides, Yuniesky Betancourt? The Mets right fielder went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts Wednesday and is hitting just .222 for the spring with 4 walks in 27 ABs. His BB% last season with the Braves and Mets was 3.6%. Normally I don’t trust players on my fantasy team that cannot show some decent patience at the plate, so I’m not the biggest Francoeur fan. He’ll provide some power to the lineup and did post a decent .836 OPS in 75 games with the Mets last season. Still, the guy strikes out too much, doesn’t take a free base, and plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s a bench player at best for your fantasy team in ’10.

Stephen Drew – Drew blasted his first HR of the spring on Wednesday and is now hitting .379 in spring training games. After posting an ISO of .211 with 21 HRs in 2008, Drew plummeted to just a .167 ISO and 12 HRs in ’09. At 27-years-old, hitting in an improved Diamondbacks lineup and coming off a season where he posted a BABIP of just .288, there’s still potential for Drew to knock 20+ HRs and drive in 80. We believe Drew will be fantasy relevant in ’10 by popping 23 HRs, hitting .280 and driving in 83.

Kevin Slowey – Slowey continued his spring training dominance by allowing zero runs in five innings of work on Wednesday. The right hander now owns a 0.56 ERA in 16 preseason innings. Yet another reason why Wins are a terrible stat in both real and fantasy baseball, Slowey’s career 26-15 record hides his so-so 4.39 career ERA. He doesn’t tally high K numbers (career 6.94 K/9), doesn’t walk many batters (career 1.42 BB/9), and doesn’t really do much of anything for your team. We project a few more strikeouts this season (150 Ks), but an ugly 4.81 ERA in 185 IP.

Octavio Dotel – Pittsburgh’s closer enjoyed a solid first spring training outing by tossing a scoreless frame, striking out one and walking a batter. During the past two seasons, Dotel recorded outstanding K/9 marks by striking out 12.36 in ’08 and 10.83 in ’09 while posting ERAs of 3.76 and 3.32, respectively. The high walk rates (3.90 BB/9 in ’08 and 5.20 BB/9 in ’09) are alarming, but Dotel should be able to hold down Pittsburgh’s ninth-inning job and provide you around 25-30 saves with strong strikeout numbers.

Mike Napoli – The hefty Angels catcher slammed his 4th HR of the spring on Wednesday and is now hitting .290 with 8 RBI. What does it take to get a catcher with a .850 career OPS into the lineup every day? With light-hitting Jeff Mathis stealing too many of his ABs, Napoli has been a high risk for fantasy teams at the catcher position because of the uncertainty he’ll see regular at-bats and his high strike out numbers (27% K% in ’09). However, no matter how much better Mathis is defensively, Mike Scioscia can’t continue keeping Napoli’s bat on the bench. Between occasionally DH-ing and getting more regular playing time behind the dish, look for Napoli to top 400 ABs for the first time in his career and consequently provide 20-25 HRs and 80 RBI.