Mets:
With Carlos Beltran out for at least the first month of the season, Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. will battle for AB. Pagan has a decent power/speed package, 6/32/.306 with 22 doubles, 11 triples, and 14 steals in 343 AB. He doesn’t walk enough, 7% BB%, make enough contact, 84%, and is not a good enough basestealer, 7 caught steals in 21 attempts last year, to be a leadoff hitter, but will not hurt a team batting down in the order.
Matthews’ skills are in a steep decline, 4/50/.250 in 316 AB last year. He has gone from a ground ball/speed approach, 2007/2008 GB%’s 51%/59% and SB’s 18/8, to hitting more fly balls, 42% GB% in 2009, without the strength to clear the fences.
If Pagan, 1/3/.250 in 28 AB, and Matthews, 2/3/.333 in 24 AB, were disasters this spring the Mets might have considered going with the red-hot Fernando Martinez, 3/11/.556 in 27 AB, but the team has indicated that the 21-year-old big-time prospect will start the season in Triple-A.
Pagan is the clearly the better choice and is a good play in NL-only leagues for the first month of the season.
The Mets will also decide between Daniel Murphy and Mike Jacobs for the bulk of the AB at first base, as both swing from the left-side, eliminating the platoon option.
Murphy’s first full major league season was a mixed bag, 12/63/.266 in 508 AB. His power was just league average and while he improved his contact skills from his 2008 debut, he also was less patient, 2008/2009 Ct%’s 79%/86% and BB%’s 12%/7%. A depressed .210 BHIP% means that there could be some batting average upside for the soon-to-be 25 year-old Murphy and if his power progresses, he could be a pleasant surprise.
Jacobs had a terrible 2009 season, 19/61/.228 with 16 doubles in 434 AB, as his power nosedived from his impressive 2008 output, 32 home runs and 27 doubles in 477 AB. It is not a good sign when a hitter opens up his swing, 2008/2009 Ct%’s of 75%/70%, and his power drops that significantly. He is just 29 years of age, so he could recapture the power of 2008, but his complete inability to hit left-handers, 1/6/.178 in 101 AB, means he will often find the bench when the Mets face southpaws.
With neither burning it up this spring, they may split time in the beginning of the season and whoever gets hot early should claim the job for at least the first couple of months this year.
Phillies:
With Brad Lidge out for probably the first two weeks of the season and if the Phillies decide that Ryan Madson can’t handle the pressure of closing games, 19 blown saves in 34 career chances, they could choose from either Danys Baez or JC Romero.
The 32 year-old Baez has experience as a closer, 71 saves in 82 chances with the 2004 and 2005 Devil Rays but has become a different pitcher since then, going from a power pitcher to a ground ball pitcher with better control, 2004/2005/2009 K/9’s 6.9/6.4/5.0, BB/9’s 3.8/3.7/2.8, and GB%’s 42%/46%/61%. His new skill set is better suited as a set-up or situational reliever rather than closing games.
After serving a 50 game, steroid related suspension, Romero couldn’t find the plate last year, 13 walks in 16.2 innings. While he can strike hitters out, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 6.7/7.9/6.5, he walks way too many batters, 6.4/5.8/7.0. A look at his splits shows where the real problem lays, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s against RHB’s 6.8/8.6/7.8 vs. BB/9’s against LHB’s 5.7/3.2/5.7, as Romero simply cannot find the plate when pitching to right-handed batters. This limits him strictly to the role of a lefty specialist.
If it came down to these two, Baez would most likely get the call, but wouldn’t be a good choice for fantasy leagues.
Are the Phillies better off now that they basically replaced ace Cliff Lee with ace Roy Halladay?
It was just a few years ago that Lee was so bad, 6.29 ERA in 97.1 innings during the 2007 season, that he was sent to the minors. However, since then his skills have improved across the board, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 6.1/6.9/7.0, BB/9’s 3.3/1.4/1.7, and GB%’s 35%/46%/41%, and the results have been outstanding, 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA in 2008 and 14-13 with a 3.22 ERA last year. He has already shown the fine line between success and disaster. With control that good being tough to maintain and the possibility of Lee falling back into being a fly ball pitcher, 2006/2007/2008/2009 FB%’s 48%/50%/35%/37%, it would not have been hard to envision Lee having rough patches in cozy Citizens Bank Park. His skill set is much safer pitching his home games in spacious Safeco Field in Seattle.
On the other hand Halladay has a skill set, 2008/2009 K/9’s 7.5/7.8, BB/9’s 1.4/1.3, and GB%’s 53%/50%, that can thrive anywhere. He turns 33 years of age in May and has shown no sign of slowing down, 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA on a bad Blue Jays team last year.
Lee is a very good pitcher, but Halladay is an elite hurler. Expect a big year from Halladay with good team and the added bonus of not only pitching in the NL but also escaping the tough AL East.
The Phillies are much better off with Halladay.
Nationals:
Will the Nationals go with the unspectacular veteran Cristian Guzman, who turns 32 years of age tomorrow, at Shortstop or will they go with the future in Ian Desmond?
These days most teams prefer to keep rookies in the minors at the beginning of the season to delay the start of the arbitration eligible clock, but the Nationals bucked that trend last year when they had Jordan Zimmermann start the season with the big club.
Prior to last season, the only above-average skill left in Guzman’s arsenal was contact, 2007/2008 Ct%’s of 88%/90%, but even that showed signs of eroding last year, 86% Ct%. It is not that an 86% Ct% is necessarily bad, but it is when a hitter has no plate patience, power, or speed, 3% BB%, 6 home runs, 24 doubles, and 5 caught steals in 9 tries during 555 PA last year. Outside of potential batting average help, but even that is declining as his skills erode, 2007/2008/2009 averages’ .328/.316/.284, Guzman offers nothing to a Nationals team going nowhere or to a fantasy roster.
Desmond certainly held his own in a 21-game trial with the Nationals last year, 4/12/.280 in 89 AB. However, the power was more than likely a fluke as he only hit 1 home and 12 doubles in 178 Triple-A AB last year and he had a 54% GB% with a 17.4% HR/FB with the Nationals. Although he improved his contact skills as the year went on in 2009, Double-A/Triple-A Ct%’s 76%/83%, it is worrisome that he is making that kind of contact in the minor leagues without generating much power. The Nationals would be better off letting Desmond play against major league pitching, but there will be struggles, which means, if he gets the job, you should let the guy in your league obsessed with rookie potential take him.
Along the same line as playing for the future, it is hard to believe that the Nationals have brought back Livian Hernandez to battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. A “big” improvement in his strike outs, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 4.0/3.6/5.0, still makes him unrosterable when combined with his other skills, 3.3% BB/9 and a 41% GB%. Even if the Nationals keep him to eat up innings, remember only bad teams need innings eaters, it shouldn’t tempt you to even consider rostering him.
Kenshin Kawakami: Kawakami is set to be the Braves fifth starter. In his rookie 2009 season, the 34 year-old went 6-9 with a 3.86 ERA. His skills are pretty average, 6.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and a 42% GB%, which limits his value to NL-only leagues. You could do worse than him as the last starter on your fantasy roster.
Freddy Sanchez: Sanchez, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in December, is expected back in early May. Upon his return, he should claim the Giants starting second base job. Without much power, 7 home runs and 29 doubles in 457 AB last year, plate patience, 2006/2007/2008/2009 BB%’s 5%/5%/4%/5%, or speed, 10 for 17 in steals during his 733 career games, Sanchez was able to hit for a high average, 2006/2007/2008 batting averages’ .344/.304/.271 because of outstanding contact skills, 2006/2007/2008 Ct%’s 91%/87%/89%, but with his Ct% dropping last year to 83%, Sanchez could see a drop in his batting average, his .291 average in 2009 was aided by .278 BHIP%.
Brian Bannister: It looks like Bannister has secured a spot in the Royals starting rotation. Without much power, 2008/2009 K/9’s 5.6/5.7, and borderline control, BB/9’s 2.9/2.9, Bannister will need to maintain the improved GB%, 38%/50%, plus some luck, 2008/2009 ERA’s 5.76/4.73, BHIP%’s .304/.287, and Strand rates’ 64%/67%, to find success as a starter.
Chad Gaudin: After allowing 11 ER in 11.1 innings this spring, Gaudin will not be the Yankees fifth starter. His power, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 7.0/7.1/8.5, offers hope, but he will need to improve his control, 4.5/2.7/4.6, if he is going to find consistent success in the big leagues. He will pitch out of the Yankees’ pen and is worth monitoring to see if he can find the plate on a more consistent basis. If he succeeds with his control, he would most likely be the first pitcher the Yankees’ turn to if something happens to one of their starters.
Jeff Suppan: Suppan’s rough spring, 12 ER in 12 innings, is leaving him in danger of not securing a roster spot with the Brewers this year. His declining control, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s 3.0/3.4/4.1, combined with poor strike out totals, 5.0/4.6/4.5, shows that the 35 year-old is nearing the end of the line, 5.29 ERA in 161.2 innings last year. Even if he makes the Brewers, he should be nowhere near a fantasy roster.
Gabe Gross: Gross’ hot spring, .393 batting average, could land him some playing time early this season in a weak A’s outfield. He will never hit for average, 2007/2008/2009 batting averages’ .235/.238/.227, BHIP%’s .176/.216/.232, and Ct%’s 80%/77%/72%, but could provide some pop, 13 home runs and 16 doubles in 345 AB in 2008, which makes him a decent spec for one of your last roster spots in AL-only leagues.
Aaron Laffey: Laffey is in line to secure a spot in the Indians starting rotation. His ability to induce ground balls, 2008/2009 GB%’s 51%/49% offers hope, but given his lack of power, K/9’s 4.1/4.4, he will need to dramatically improve his control, 3.0/4.2, before he will find success at the big league level, 2008/2009 ERA’s 4.24/4.44.
Chris Perez: Perez is right behind current closer Kerry Wood on the depth chart. He has the power to succeed as a closer, 10.7 K/9, but the poor control, 4.3 BB/9, and high 47% FB%, shows that he needs to improve in at least one of those areas before he could be considered a legitimate option in that role.
Brendon Harris: Harris’ hot spring, .364 batting average, could give him more playing time over Nick Punto at 3B early this season. However even if he plays, Harris offers little power, 6 home runs in 414 AB in 2009, no speed, 0 for 2 in steals, and a poor approach at the plate, 6% BB% and an 81% Ct%. Playing time would obviously help his counting stats, but it will do you no favors in the batting average department, .261 last year.
Johan Santana: Santana is having a rough spring, 9.00 ERA, but with his track record, 2008/2009 ERA’s 2.53/3.13, K/9’s 7.9/7.9, and BB%’s 2.5/2.4, there is no reason to panic. It you want to nitpick, his rising fly balls, 2008/2009 FB%’s 36%/48%, could be of some concern, but it is mitigated by his home park and pitching in the NL.
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