March 17, 2010 - Fantistics Preseason Notes
New York Yankees
1. Mark Teixeira - A Pre-Season Favorite for MVP - (1B - Yankees) - It all seems to be adding up now. The monkey is off the back with the Yankees winning the World Series in 2009. He has one full year of the Bronx media zoo under his belt and should be fairly comfortable putting on the pinstripes everyday. A switch-hitter in Yankee Stadium with some of the best lineup support in baseball, Teixeira can finally settle-in to his role and put up MVP type numbers. He's a notoriously slow starter though and even began spring training 1-for-10. He has since hit a couple of homers and is on a 5-for-7 streak. If you recall last year, Tex brought out the boo-birds in the Bronx, hitting just .200 in April with 3 HR and 12 K's. Even over the last 3-years, his early-season struggles are evident in his pre and post-all star splits. His OPS pre break is .903 over that time span, compared with a 1.021 from mid-July onward. If he can end the spring strong and hit the ground running for the start of the season, I think we'll see some special things out of Tex. We currently have him ranked as the top AL first baseman with a forecast of 41 HR, 109 R, 129 RBI, and a .301 Avg, good for an ADP of 1.08.
2. Robinson Cano - More RBI Opportunities (2B - Yankees) - The Yankees displayed their preliminary opening day lineup on Tuesday with Robinson Cano hitting out of the 5th hole. Currently at an ADP of 4.04, Cano's forecast is for no RBI growth from 2009 to 2010 (mid-80's in RBI totals). But hitting behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez should lead to more RBI opportunities. Sure, there's the rationale that they will "clean-up" all of the potential RBI opportunities, but a steady presence in the 5-hole should yield plenty of chances as well. After all, if Tex and A-Rod score 100 runs each, with 35+ coming from the longball, that still leaves plenty of "ducks on the pond" for those hitting immediately behind them. There has always been speculation that Cano has the ability to put together a batting-title kind of season. At 28, this just may be the year. He hit .320 last year, still 22 points off his career high of .342 in 2006, but could make a run at it one of these years.
Chicago White Sox
1. Alex Rios - Is This The Rebound Year? (OF - White Sox) - I'll give you an emphatic - maybe. After being traded from the Blue Jays to the White Sox, Rios was dreadful. He hit just .199 in 146 AB with the Sox, 3 HR, 9 RBI, and an OPS of .530. His first half was a little better, but it still continued a general ISO% decline. From 2006 through 2009, Rios' ISO% went from .213 to .201 to .170 to .148. Hmm... that's three consecutive years since the mid-2000's of declining Isolated Power in consistently hitter-friendly ballparks in, what should be, the height of his prime. I think we'll see his HR's creep back over the 20 mar, especially at U.S. Cellular, but I wouldn't even begin considering Rios on my team until the double-digit rounds. Even his ADP of 11.03 may be a little aggressive at this point.
2. Paul Konerko - A Quick Look at HR/AB (1B - White Sox) - It feels like Konerko has been around for an eternity. The 34-year old first broke into the league with the Dodgers in 1997 but has been on the Southside since '99. Since then, he's knocked out 326 career HR's with an OPS of .843. Not bad. But more recently, we've seen a natural decline in his power rates. Going back to 2004, Konerko posted a HR/AB of 13.7. Now, stick with me as I walk through the years. Moving to 2005, Konerko's HR/AB declined to 14.4, then 16.2, 17.7, 19.9, and 19.5. We are staring at a 2010 rate in the 20's. Still respectable and should yield mid-20's HR totals (especially in Chicago), but his ADP continues to drop into the very-late teen rounds (currently at 18.06) and he will continue to be a huge injury concern for a full season of service.
Kansas City Royals
1. Gil Meche - Household Fantasy Name, But That's About It (SP - Royals) - Meche is a recognizable name, but that's not enough to make him drift onto your mixed-league draft board on draft day. After posting back-to-back decent seasons with the Royals in 2007 (3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP) and 2008 (3.98 ERA / 1.32 WHIP), Meche dropped off quite a bit in 2009 posting a 5.09 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. His BB/I has shown a stead increase from 0.29 to 0.35 to 0.45 with a similar trend in K/BB of 2.52 to 2.51 to 1.64. We may see a bit of a bounce back from Meche if he can work some of the knots out of his mechanics, but don't expect a return to his '07 and '08 numbers. Mid-20's ADP at best.
2. Benefitting from Alex Gordon's Broken Thumb - While Alberto Callaspo seems to be the greatest beneficiary of getting full-time work at 3B with Alex Gordon out, Mitch Maier may actually fare the best. He may squeeze into that final roster spot of the 13 non-pitchers and roam the outfield throughout the year for KC. For now, the starters will mostly be Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, and David DeJesus (with the occasional switch from DH to RF for Jose Guillen). Josh Fields and Willie Bloomquist could see backup duties as well. For the most part, all names listed (with the exception of the eternal flier on Alex Gordon) hold little fantasy value in mixed leagues, but may have some value in AL-only formats.
Player Notes
1. Sean Rodriguez (2B - Tampa Bay Rays) - Sean Rodriguez is this year's "hot" player to emerge from spring training. There's usually at least a few surprise guys each spring that put up huge numbers and make people take fliers on draft day. Rodriguez is currently competing for the 2B job with Reid Brignac and is hitting over .400 this spring. It remains to be seen how the position battle plays out, but he has at least earned a platoon situation for the season and could own the full-time spot if he keeps raking. If you're left without a 2B late in your draft, he's not a bad gamble at this point.
2. Jay Bruce (OF - Reds) - Jay Bruce looks healthy and is certainly swinging a hot spring bat hitting .391 with a couple of HR's. We have a bounce-back year for Bruce in our Fantasy Draft Software, flirting with the 30-HR mark and posting 85+ RBI. The key for Bruce, as we've mentioned here before, is his improving batting EYE, from 0.30 to 0.51 from '08 to '09. If he can learn to just have respectable ABs against lefties (OPS of .643 vs. .826 LHP vs. RHP in 2009), we could see some humongous numbers out of him.
3. Johnny Cueto (SP - Reds) - Cueto has struggled at time this spring as he works through some kinks, but I'm not going to get too hung up on pre-season numbers. Instead, let's take a quick look at why Cueto may be undervalued on draft day in your league and why he might be worth the risk. Cueto enters his 3rd year in the league. We saw a slight improvement in his BB/I from '08 to '09 from 0.39 to 0.36, but also saw his K/I drop from 0.91 to 0.77. With that said, I think we saw his full potential in the first half of 2009 when he posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, a 6.8 K/9 and a BB/I of 0.34. We can still see some improvement in that K-rate, but his other stats were trending well until a 2nd half slowdown. That decline has led to a ADP of 20.02 which could be a fantastic steal if he can return to his first-half of '09 performance.
4. Tim Lincecum (SP - Giants) - How great is spring training? One of the best pitchers in baseball can post a 9.39 ERA and we can all just shrug it off and say, "eh, its spring training." No reason for concern with Lincecum's line. He says he's feeling good and his velocity has shown steady signs of increasing in each start. We all know he can't possibly win the Cy Young award every year (right?), but we are still forecasting a steady 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, more wins (we have 18 after building off his 19 deserved wins from 2009), and 242 K's.
5. Neftali Feliz (RP - Rangers) - Feliz's struggles in preseason action are making it less likely that he earns a spot in the Rangers starting rotation. Manager Ron Washington has hinted that CJ Wilson is the likely candidate for the final rotation spot at this point, but there's still a couple weeks left to decide. At this point, Feliz should continue to drop down draft boards and should be forecasted as a decent Holds candidate for the first half of the season.
6. Carlos Gomez (OF - Brewers) - I knew it would take some convincing for me to take another look at Carlos Gomez heading in 2010. But 7 steals in the spring may be a good leading indicator that he's ready to run as a member of the Brew-Crew. After stealing 33 bases in 44 attempts in 2008, those totals went way down to 14 swipes in 21 attempts (mostly due to a drop in PA from 577 to 315). An ADP of 24.0+, I like him as a last OF option in Rotisserie leagues if you find your team void of speed come the later rounds. He's actually swinging the bat decently too, which could lead to a nice surprise at the plate.
7. JR Towles (C - Astros) - Astros are in a position battle at the backstop between JR Towles and Jason Castro. Towles has gotten off to a good start, tied for the Astros spring hit total with 11 (including 5 doubles and a triple). The likely scenario is that this may not be decided in time for the regular season, but if I had to choose between the two, I think Towles will get the job. Aside from swinging the bat better this spring, he was a proven hitter with average and power in the minors and is slowly proving that he has the maturity to handle the pitching staff. I think he ultimately wins the job.
8. Stephen Strasburg (SP - Nationals) - After "wowing" fans with triple-digit fastballs and dominant debuts, its looking more likely (as predicted) that the 1st pick of the 2009 draft will begin the season in the minor leagues. That's not an official ruling, but GM Mike Rizzo continued to hint at it during a radio interview yesterday. While he will probably start in the minors, a few dominating starts could have him up as early as May. An ADP of 18.04 is a little too rich for my blood simply because in non-keeper leagues, I'm not a big fan of the "draft and stash" philosophy. Last round of my draft at best for my money.
9. Brian Roberts (2B - Orioles) - The Brian Roberts injury drama continues. Will he be ready or not? We want to know! The Orioles are claiming they fully expect Roberts to be ready for opening day and are not going to announce any replacement options. The most obvious options for replacements are Ty Wigginton, Robert Andino, and maybe Justin Turner, but we may be looking at an outside option via trade if Roberts is not ready. He received an epidural in his lower back that is intended to help ease the pain of the herniated disc. Time will tell if the injection helps, but in the meantime, his ADP of 4.11 is very aggressive given his long-term 2010 injury concern. Drop him in your drafts and only take a chance if he's a good value.
10. Joba Chamberlain (P - Yankees) - As I hinted at last week, Joba is looking more and more like a candidate for the bullpen to begin the 2010 season. He'll probably have his last chance to prove his worth today when he faces the Phillies at 1pm. Manager Joe Girardi even told him that they gave him a "free pass" in those first couple of outings. Now is the time for him to shine. That free pass would erase a 27.00 ERA in 3.2 IP to date. Its becoming more and more obvious that Joba's natural role is probably setup for Mariano Rivera with Phil Hughes taking the last spot in the rotation. Today will be a clear indicator on how the Yankees will likely move forward.
