What can we expect from Alfonso Soriano?
Just three seasons into a monstrous eight year deal, Alfonso Soriano looks nothing like the 40-40 candidate with a .900+ OPS that came over from Washington. Soriano’s coming off the worst season of his career, a campaign that saw him post a .726 OPS and miss over 40 games with leg injuries. Of course the two years prior he averaged 26 HR’s and 19 SB’s, while posting averages above .280. So which is the likely path for Soriano this season? Let’s dig into the numbers and find out:
Soriano’s power profile shows he’s hitting more fly balls, which is typically a good thing for a power hitter, but the concern here is the declining extra-base hit rate. Sure his HR/PA % increased from ’07 to ’08 but his overall extra-base hit rate dropped nearly 4%. That trend continued into 2009 with another 0.3% drop and this time the HR’s followed as his rate dropped down below 4%.
In the next table you’ll see a similar story with Soriano’s running profile. In 2009 Soriano’s leg injuries made it so that his SB/PA % fell off a cliff down to 2.1%. The optimists may discount this figure given the leg injuries, but Soriano’s now had leg injuries in three consecutive seasons, and he’s already entered camp complaining of not being 100%. As a 34 year old coming off multiple leg injuries that have shortened his season, its unlikely Soriano will be aggressive on the base-paths and while he might be able to top 10 SB’s thanks to his efficiency, it’s unlikely to expect anything more than 15.
Now certainly the barrage of injuries may have impacted both the power and the speed, so let’s take a look at some other indicators of skill, specifically Soriano’s plate discipline.
Soriano’s always been known as a free swinging, mistake hitter who would jump on first pitch fastballs and yank hanging breaking balls out of the park. While the free-swinging hasn’t changed much, Soriano’s EYE has remained relatively stable as his BB Rate has risen a bit as has his K Rate (something we typically see in aging players), but the way pitchers approach Soriano has changed drastically. Soriano’s seeing far less fastballs and that’s not a good thing. For his career Soriano’s posted negative run values against anything that breaks, only positing positive run values against Fastballs and Change-ups.
What does it all mean?
We’ve got an aging player whose skill-set throughout his career has been dependent on athleticism. He’s suffered leg injuries in three consecutive seasons and is seeing a decline in his power rates and his willingness to run. In addition pitchers are approaching him completely differently, finally exposing Soriano’s questionable plate discipline and inability to handle a breaking ball. While Soriano might be a player whose due for a rebound in health and as such a rebound in production, I’m not betting on a 34 year old with a recent injury history who is showing declining skills. He’ll look like a decent value in the middle of your draft, but the downside far outweighs the upside in Soriano’s case and I’d rather take the chance on a younger OF with upside (like Carlos Gonzalez) or a bounce-back candidate who is closer to their prime (Alex Rios).
Soriano’s 1-11 in spring training so far with 5 K’s.
The Cubs 2B position battle: Mike Fontenot vs. Jeff Baker
I hesitate to call the situation a position battle because the best use of both players is extremely obvious as Baker and Fontenot make perfect platoon partners. Baker’s been a serviceable hitter throughout his career, posting a career OPS of .782, but he’s really best deployed as a lefty masher in a platoon split (career .889 OPS vs. LHP) and his inability to hit righties consistently (.727 OPS) is the primary reason he hasn’t found a consistent starter’s role anywhere in his career. Mike Fontenot broke out in 2008 looking like a miniature version of Chase Utley (both in stature and sample size) posting a .909 OPS in 284 PA’s. It was enough to convince the Cubs to move on from Mark DeRosa and hand Fontenot the starting job in 2009, which he promptly gave away by posting a .677 OPS in 419 PA’s. Fontenot’s had a platoon split as well throughout his major league career (.783 OPS vs. RH, .630 OPS vs. LH). Although it’s not as large a discrepancy as Baker, it’s worth exploiting. Fontenot’s also the better defensive 2B which is worth mentioning as well. As a result, I’d expect the Cubs to split time between the two with Fontenot getting the majority of AB’s against RHP’s while Baker logs all the time against LHP’s. Neither is a mixed league candidate and given the potential platoon split, both players will only make for a MI option in NL Only formats. Baker is the more skilled player of the two and has the higher upside, but Fontenot may see more opportunity early in the season against RHP, as a result I’d probably avoid the situation entirely.
Quick Cubs bullpen battle update for setup man:
After my last post detailed the potential downside of Carlos Marmol and highlighted Andrew Cashner as a potential NL Only sleeper, I mistakenly left out a name that may be emerging in the Cubs bullpen as the primary setup man: Esmailin Caridad
Caridad’s largely been a starter in the Cubs system and he’s climbed the system with excellent control and just adequate ability to make batters miss. His stuff isn’t anything to write home about but in his brief stint out of the pen at the major league level last season he averaged 92.7 MPH on his fastball, showing an up-tick in velocity that you’d expect out of the pen.
He’s already been identified by Lou Pineilla as a potential 8th inning guy with the loss of Angel Guzman and given the lack of alternative options in the Cubs pen, Caridad seems to have climbed to 2nd in line. Andrew Cashner has better stuff, and if given the opportunity would likely be a better reliever than Caridad right now, but Caridad’s assured of a role in the bullpen and appears to be next in line behind Carlos Marmol. NL-only players looking for a cheap shot at saves should remember Caridad’s name on draft day.
Which is the real James Shields?
After two years of sub-4 ERA’s and sub-1.15 WHIPs James Shields looked to have defied the scouting reports that questioned whether his stuff was big league material and often labeled him as a back-end rotation guy. But last year, things turned as Shields went from a good #2 to something a lot closer to that back-end rotation starter. His ERA jumped to 4.14 while his WHIP jumped up to 1.32. The total package was underwhelming for fantasy owners as he posted an 11-12, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 167 K’s in 219 2/3 innings.
The interesting thing about Shields performance the last few years is the incremental decline in his peripherals. In 2008, Shields K Rate dropped from 7.7 K/9 to 6.7 K/9, but Shields got by with spectacular command (1.67 BB/9) and rolling a few more GB’s (46.3% up from 42% in 2007), which ultimately dropped his HR Rate and kept his Strand Rate a bit elevated. Last season, Shields K Rate stayed at the same level (6.84 K/9), but his BB Rate climbed (2.13 BB/9) and his GB Rate returned to previous norms (42.3%). This coupled with some more FBs leaving the yard lead to the big jump in ERA as Shields extra base-runners yielded by walks came around to score more often.
So which James Shields can we expect this season?
Personally, I don’t think the K Rate of ’07 and ’08 is coming back and while the BB Rate may rebound a bit, he’d need either a significant drop in BB’s or a significant boost in GB’s to get back to his ’07 and ’08 performance levels. His elite command should still help limit the damage in WHIP, but Shields’ ERA will be closer to the 4.14 demonstrated last year and if the K’s stay at the 6.7-6.9 level, we can only expect 160-165 K’s for Shields (assuming another 220 IP). Ultimately I think we’re looking at something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 165 K’s, and 13-15 W’s, making him more of a high-end SP#4 or back-end #3 in mixed leagues. I actually prefer Matt Garza over Shields this season as my favorite Rays pitcher.
Why isn’t Wade Davis’ prospect star brighter?
Fantasy owners can’t get enough young pitching. So why hasn’t Wade Davis gotten more attention? Davis had a nice stint with the Rays at the end of last season posting a 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings. In addition he’s long-been a top prospect, ranking in the Top 35 of Baseball America’s rankings each of the last two seasons and ranking inside the Top 100 in each of the last three years. So why is his name not coming up more?
Perhaps fantasy owners are shy with young pitchers in the AL East, certainly the recent history hasn’t been kind (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz), but whatever it is I think fantasy owners should take notice. Davis has always been difficult to square up in the minors as evidenced by his HR/9 of 0.6 at the minor league level and his H/9 of just 8.0 and he continued that success last year at the big league level, posting an above average swing and miss % inside the zone. His fastball has been able to generate GB’s at the minor league level (46%). Young pitchers in major league baseball have few tasks as difficult as acquainting themselves in the AL East, a loaded division with tough hitter’s parks, but Davis has the pedigree and the stuff to succeed. As a late-round selection he’s the type of talent I want to take chances on.
Can Daric Barton take the next step, will he get the chance?
It’s hard to believe Daric Barton’s just 24 years old as it seems we’ve heard his name forever since he started drawing comparisons to Albert Pujols when in the Cardinals system years ago. He’s been one of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in every year from 2005-2008, but the power that was projected to come with the elite EYE just hasn’t yet. Barton’s always displayed elite plate discipline posting a 1.17 EYE in his minor league career despite being young for most of his levels, but the slugging just wasn’t there (.455) and as a 1B/DH type Barton’s Slug needed to catch up to his EYE. So far we’ve seen the same story at the big league level as Barton posted another 1.01 EYE last season, but slugged just .413.
There is some hope here though. Barton’s extra base hit rate jumped from 5.5% to 8.3% last year and his FB Rate continues to climb from 45.7% to 48.2% without sacrificing any LD’s (still 20.1%). Improving fly ball rate, more overall power output per plate appearance, and a maturing body could be the combination Barton needs to finally show some of the power scouts projected.
The A’s have some depth at 1B/DH within their organization and on the major league roster so Barton may need to hit this spring to get his opportunity. With Jake Fox, Chris Carter, Jack Cust and even Eric Chavez back in the mix, Barton may get surpassed without much opportunity. Of that group Barton offers the best combination of defense and youth and I believe he’ll ultimately emerge as the 1B on opening day. Expecting the power to come right away would be optimistic, but the indicators are moving in the right direction and Barton is still just 24. As a cheap AL Only option whose price is driven down by the competition, Barton makes for a decent gamble.
What’s the ceiling on SB’s for Rajai Davis?
One of the more exciting quotes out of spring training came from the legendary quote machine Rickey Henderson when he declared Rajai Davis could steal 75-80 bags. And not to let us down Rajai responded much like Rickey would have “Easy… sleeping”.
Davis stole 41 bases last season in just 432 PA’s and has averaged an incredible SB every 9.4 PA’s during his major league career. If we extrapolate that number to a 550 PA season, we get to right around 57 SB’s. Interestingly enough this is right in line with Davis’ minor league numbers where his career high was 57 SB’s in 574 PA’s at high A in the Pirates organization. Now Davis, could certainly approach 600+ PA’s as he’s scheduled to hit towards the top of the A’s lineup and looks in line for a full season’s worth of AB’s, but even then we’re talking low 60’s in SB’s. While the 75-80 number certainly got fantasy owners’ attention, we think a high 50’s projection is more likely for Rajai this year.
Jon Rauch RP, MIN – Rauch threw his third perfect inning of the spring on Thursday while striking out one. Both he and Matt Guerrier (4 scoreless) have looked good early on this spring. I prefer Rauch to Guerrier as he’s had a better K Rate, has some experience in the role, and Rod Gardenhire has showed confidence in using Guerrier in multiple inning stints in years past. We’ll continue to monitor the situation as the spring winds down, but right now Rauch remains the slight favorite in my book, though Rod Gardenhire remains silent on the issue until Joe Nathan is officially done for the season.
Chris Davis 1B/3B, TEX – The hype surrounding Chris Davis last year was a bit out of control and as a result a number of fantasy owners got burned. Thankfully most subscribing to our service were likely shielded from some of the high-end projections other sites placed on Davis. A year later and fantasy owners are still holding out hope as Davis is going in the middle round of traditional 5x5 drafts. After a 4-5 effort on Thursday he’s now 8-16 on the spring and most importantly just with 3 K’s so far. Davis’ contact rate plummeted last season (38% K Rate) and it was mostly attributed to just missing more pitches in the zone (Zone-Contact Rate dropped from 79% to 70.8%), as his plate discipline actually improved (swung at 3% less pitches out of the zone). While Davis will always be a big time batting average liability, I actually have some hope for him this year living up to some of the hype that was behind him last year. There’s a lot of risk here, but .245-30-85 seems reasonable.
Desmond Jennings OF, TB – Jennings long-time battle with the injury bug has already started again this season. He’ll miss the rest of the grapefruit league schedule with a sprained wrist and as was likely the plan all along, start the year in AAA. I continue to believe he’ll make an impact in the big leagues this season and from a fantasy perspective has as much upside as Jason Heyward (can make more of an impact in SBs), but owners will have to be patient as it will take some time for Jennings to get the opportunity; and he’ll have to stay healthy to get it.
Conor Jackson – OF, ARZ – Long-time readers of Fantistics will recognize my affinity for the man I like to call CoJack. Jackson missed most of last season with something out of a House episode, “valley fever?” But he’s healthy this year and slated to bat 2nd in the DBacks loaded lineup. Jackson’s always shown a great EYE and has flashed above average gap power that has at times translated into average HR power. If he can stay healthy he should score a ton of runs with how often he gets on base. He’s going undrafted in many leagues and in 5 OF leagues deserves a look. I think .290-85-16-75-10 is a reasonable expectation with a little bit of upside for more. He’s kind of like a Nick Johnson lite that will be available late and likely a pick that will make a quiet but solid profit for owners.
