Dodgers #5 starter-As of now, the front-runner here has to be Eric Stults. Stults is left-handed, has two big league shutouts on his resume, is out of options, and while it’s early, he’s looked good in camp (two scoreless innings) while James McDonald (hit hard again Thursday) and Charlie Haeger have struggled and Scott Elbert is already nursing a sore shoulder. Stults has 145 big league innings under his belt with a 6.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 to go with a 4.85 ERA. The stuff is probably there for him to be a serviceable No. 5 starter, but as many shutouts as he spins, there are going to be more of these type of lines: 4-6-6-6-4-2.
Dodgers catcher-You know the news about Russell Martin’s groin injury and 4-to-6 week timeframe, but Martin maintains that he still hopes to be ready by Opening Day. That’s probably pushing it considering even if the groin is 100% by early April, Martin would still need time to get his timing down. Really though, the Dodgers certainly aren’t going to push him and will likely keep him out the first couple weeks or so of the regular season. A.J. Ellis will probably see 70% or so of the catcher at-bats with ancient Brad Ausmus picking up the remaining 30%. Ellis is a career .277/.397/.374 minor league hitter in close to 1,500 at-bats. He’ll turn 29 in April, so he’s no spring chicken from a baseball perspective. The good is clear: .397 OBP, 1.1 EYE, 83% CT%. The bad is equally glaring: sub-.100 ISO and no speed. Ellis also managed to not homer at all last season in Triple-A (283 at-bats), so while he could be a decent stop-gap for the Dodgers, he’s not helping your fantasy team. Ellis was 2-for-4 in Wednesday’s game.
Arizona utility infielder – Tony Abreu may be competing with Ryan Roberts and Rusty Ryan for a pair of backup infield slots. Abreu, who came to the Dbacks in the Jon Garland deal last year, led off on Wednesday and went 3-for-4, falling just a double short of the cycle. Abreu is batting a robust .471 so far this spring, and with the news that Abreu will see time at shortstop this spring, it appears he’s being positioned to make the team as a super-utility role.
Arizona #4 and #5 starters – The favorites: Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner. Kennedy appears to be a lock or one of the spots barring a spring meltdown, and Buckner is the early favorite for the other. Buckner though has allowed four runs over five innings (and two home runs) in his spring to date, though a 7:1 K:BB is far more encouraging. Should Buckner falter or Brandon Webb be unavailable for Opening Day, Kevin Mulvey is likely the current de facto No. 6 starter after allowing no runs on one hit over two innings in his first spring outing.
San Francisco RF - This one is still Nate Schierholz’s to lose, though we were a bit worried after he fouled a ball off his knee over the weekend. Schierholz was reportedly in considerable pain, but he was back in the lineup Wednesday, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Schierholz is a career .284/.316/.415 hitter in 472 at-bats, though a 0.25 EYE and just six career home runs doesn’t exactly look like starting outfielder material. For some reason, the Giants don’t seem all that interested in giving Fred Lewis (.277/.355/.420 in 931 at-bats) a real opportunity, but there’s still time.
San Francisco No. 5 Starter - The Giants are probably still hoping that Madison Bumgarner is the guy here, but after Bumgarner was clocked at 87-89 mph in his last outing, there are still lingering concerns over his diminished velocity. Bumgarner went from being baseball’s top pitching prospect with mid 90s heat to a guy who sat in the 88-90 range over the second half of last year. The ERA was still very good in Double-A (1.93) but his K/9 cratered to 5.8. Some have attributed the diminished velocity to Bumgarner to throwing too much on the side, but there could also be a lingering injury issue. We just don’t know. Most likely Todd Wellemeyer (3 IP, 1 ER Monday) gets the job out of spring training, with Bumgarner accruing some Triple-A time initially. Keep in mind, the guy is still just 20.
Grady Sizemore (OF-CLE) – Sizemore isn’t likely to be too devalued outside of shallow, less “hard-core” fantasy leagues, but there’s probably still some value to be had in many leagues for a guy coming off a disappointing .248/.343/.445 season. Sizemore though was bothered by elbow and abdominal injuries all season, so we’ll give him a mulligan for that one. There was no real degradation in his plate discipline, as his 0.65 EYE, 12% BB%, and 79% CT% were well within Sizemore’s career norms. His BABIP was a bit low at .276, so with that and 100% healthy, I’d set the over/under on BA at about .272. Even factoring in fewer at-bats, Sizemore’s SBs were way down (13) last year, but he should show some improvement there, perhaps into the 25 range as he’ll have the patient Shin-Soo Choo batting behind him in the order (Cabrera, Sizemore, Choo 1-2-3).
Gerald Laird (C-DET) – Normally I’m as skeptical of these “new batting stance / pitching arm slot” reports as I am of the “best shape of his life” stories, but Laird’s new stance seems to be paying off. The Detroit catcher slugged a grand slam off Joba Chamberlain on Wednesday and is now batting .333 with a pair of homers in four games this spring. Laird batted a respectable .276/.329/.398 with the Rangers in 2008 before slumping to .225/.306/.320 last year, but early results suggest a mini-rebound at least. Laird did see a spike in his EYE from 0.37 to 0.59 last year and his .261 BABIP fell 36 points shy of his career mark
Ben Sheets (SP-OAK) - With Sheets right now, it's probably more about health than results,
but regardless, we have to mention his line from Wednesday's game - 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. This coming after a debut in which he allowed two runs (one earned) in 1.2 innings leaves Sheets with an uninspiring 12.46 ERA. Sheets was given a one year $10 million deal last month, a move likely driven not only off a desire to try and compete for the AL West title, but as a potentially valuable July trade chip for Billy Beane. Sheets is likely no longer an elite starter even given a clean bill of health, as his K/9 rates in his last two seasons prior to missing 2009 were far from inspiring at 6.8 and 7.2. He still has great command (I think?) with a 2.0 career BB/9, but I'll take bets on a 130 over/under on innings pitched.
Chris Coghlan (OF-FLA) - Batting leadoff Wednesday, Coghlan was 2-for-3 with a double, triple, and four RBI, leaving him at .278 so far this spring. He's obviously not competing for a starting job coming off his ROY performance last year, and at 24, there's a possibility he takes that next step in 2010. We'd of course love to see more than nine home runs and a .139 ISO, but as we know, power is often the last tool to develop. There's 15-20 homer potential here somewhere, and after a strong 0.69 EYE last year and 1+ rates at times in the minors, we know the plate discipline is more than adequate. Factor in that Coghlan, while not a burner by any means, has a 41 stolen base season (2008) in the minors to his credit, and you have a very capable fantasy target, particularly if he can eventually bump Dan Uggla to third base (or perhaps off the roster via trade).
David Huff (SP-CLE) - Huff gave up one run over three innings Wednesday and is looking like a favorite for one of the many rotation spots up for grabs in Cleveland. At first glance, Huff's inability to miss more than a few bats (4.6 K/9) a year ago puts the dreaded Jeremy Sowers label on the left-hander, but look back a year at his 2008 effort in the minor leagues: 143:29 K:BB in 146.2 innings. He's a middle-of-the-rotation guy at best, but those guys have real value in deeper leagues, so continue to monitor Huff's progress this spring. He's a former first round draft pick if that means anything to you.
Francisco Liriano (SP-MIN) - Assuming Joe Nathan does end up undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins will be in need of a new closer. Candidates thought to be in the mix are Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier, but one intriguing option that may be considered is trying Liriano in the role and signing a free agent starting pitcher (guys like Jarrod Washburn, John Smoltz, Pedro, and Braden Looper are still out there). Nathan and Liriano of course both came over from the Giants in the long-ago A.J. Pierzynski deal. Liriano is living proof that not all pitchers are the same after Tommy John surgery. Liriano has been inconsistent at best the last two years, posting a 5.80 ERA in 2009 and flashing his talent in spurts, but if he's to be a starter in Minnesota this year, he'll have to win the No. 5 starter job. Encouragingly, Liriano did post a solid 8.0 K/9 last year but a 4.3 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 did serious damage to the ERA. Liriano also allowed a .945 OPS with runners on base, but maybe closer is the best thing for his talent right now. Intriguing.
Stephen Drew (SS-ARI) - An intereseting note on Stephen Drew Wednesday, the Arizona shortstop who dropped 88 points of OPS last year compared to 2008. Drew attributed some of his struggles to his wife's poor health last season, though as far as we know now, she's improved. It's easy to not think about the human side of multi-millionaire athletes, but they are human just like us and while the money surely helps make things easier, they also worry about non-sports issues. Drew is 5-for-10 so far this spring and at 27, he's just entering his prime. I'll be targeting him in my drafts this year, particularly considering he got a bit unlucky on flyballs last year (6% HR/F rate) and his EYE actually improved from 0.38 to 0.56 over 2008.
Nick Hundley (C-SD) - If you're a Nick Hundley fan/owner, there doesn't appear to be much to worry about in terms of competition from Yorvit Torrealba. The latter has the experience advantage, and he did hit .291 last year, but with just two homers in 213 at-bats in Colorado, it was a pretty empty .291. Hundley meanwhile notched his first hit of the spring Wednesday and is 1-for-6 as he works his way back from November sports hernia surgery. Hundley hit just .238 in 256 at-bats for the Padres last year due in large part to a 70% CT%, but he also hit eight home runs and he's five years younger than his backup. Look for Hundley to garner perhaps 375 at-bats to Torrealba's 250.
Will Venable (OF-SD) - Venable is part of a rather crowded outfield situation in San Diego, but he's certainly been making a case for being a full-timer this season. Wednesday, Venable hit his first homer of the spring, this one impressively off Yovani Gallardo. Venable is batting .308 so far as he competes with the likes of Kyle Blanks, Tony Gwynn Jr., Scott Hairston, and Aaron Cunningham. Venable batted a so-so .256/.323/.440, but positives included a .184 ISO and a decent enough 8% BB%. On the flip side, a 70% CT% is the big negative, though that number was in the 77-84% range in the minor leagues. He's also a better than average defender, something that should at least net him #4 OF status, but if his bat stays hot, he'll have a shot at 500 at-bats.
Aaron Poreda (SP-SD) - Poreda may have punched his ticket to Triple-A Wednesday, surrendering seven runs (six earned) without recording an out, taking his ERA from 0.00 to a nice 27.00 - ah small sample sizes. Poreda struggled mightily last year command-wise, walking 88 batters in just 120.1 innings between the minors and big leauges. He's still just 23, big, and left-handed, so no reason to panic, but we're not looking at a big fantasy impact this season.
Derek Holland (SP-TEX) – Perhaps he was still nursing that sore knee, but Holland allowed four runs and recorded just one out during Thursday’s game, putting his assumed rotation spot assumedly in jeopardy. Holland, still just 23, was promoted to the Rangers last year after compiling just 30 innings above High Class-A ball before settling in Texas where he posted a 6.12 ERA in 33 appearances (21 starts). There were however some positive signs, including a 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Of course what really hurt Holland was the 1.7 HR/9, something that if things don’t turn around quickly, he’ll be working on in Triple-A not Texas come April.
Jose Reyes (SS-NYM) - Joe covered Reyes’ “overactive thyroid” on Wednesday and now we’re hearing 2-to-8 weeks. That’s a pretty large span of time, and for now we’ll recommend counting on being without Reyes’ services for all of April. A return earlier than that is a bonus. Reyes’ fantasy value is starting to fall nearly as fast as that of Joe Nathan given the myriad of injuries, declining power, new cavernous ballpark, and uncertain stolen base upside.
