March 10, 2010 - Fantistics Preseason Notes
New York Yankees
1.The 5th Spot - Joba Chamberlain vs Phil Hughes - One of the biggest question marks for the Yankees heading into spring training is who will earn that last spot in the rotation. Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes are the expected favorites to win the job. After all, fans and fantasy owners been suffering for three years with the "Joba Rules" that were supposed to protect him for future use as a starter. And we all know the numerous trades that were declined by the Yankee front office to protect Phil Hughes and groom him to be the next Yankee ace. But while both are the favorites to win the position (with Hughes being the favorite), there are grumblings through the Yankee organization that both may end up in the bullpen as setup men and the temporary fix will be Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, or Sergio Mitre. Those three have little fantasy value (AL-only at best for draft purposes) although I do think Gaudin will get the most starts from that group. For draft day strategy, I'd let someone else take the risk here. This could be another long and frustrating season of watching Hughes and Joba bounce around between starter and reliever.
2. A New DH / #2 Hole - Nick Johnson (DH / 1B - New York Yankees) - Johnson makes his 2nd trip to the Bronx in 2010 and made a big splash yesterday with two home runs. The lefty hitting Johnson will prove to be a nice fit with the short Yankee Stadium porch and a good replacement for Hideki Matsui, who signed with the LA Angels in the off season. It feels like Johnson has been around forever, but he's only 31. Keeping him off the DL and out of the trainer room will always big Johnson's biggest challenge. The most games he has played in a single season is 147 with the Nationals in 2006 followed by no games in 2007 and just 38 in 2008. He managed to play 133 after being traded from Washington to Florida in 2009. For note, he has already had a few minor back issues to begin to spring training. But if Johnson can stay healthy, he may be a nice late-round sleeper for power and OBP. He has a career .402 OBP and a HR/AB rate of 28.5. That power rate isn't that impressive, but I would bet on an improvement hitting with Yankee-lineup protection in a favorable lefty-hitting stadium. He'll also see a ton of run scoring opportunities being slated for the #2 spot in the lineup (for now).
Chicago White Sox
1. A New Look at Second Base - Gordon Beckham (2B - Chicago White Sox) - We've known this news for awhile, but its worth the reminder that Gordon Beckham will have both 3B and 2B eligibility during the 2010 season. He will make the move from the hot corner to second base, turning the DP with Alexei Ramirez on the south side of Chicago. Beckham was called-up mid-season last year and played in 103 games for the Sox, batting .270 with a .341 OBP, 14 HR, 63 RBI, and a BB/K of 0.63. That's good for an OPS of .802 and an FPI of 0.62. Let's not minimize that plate discipline with such limited big league service. In just 376 AB, a 0.63 FPI is really good and should project him to settle-in in 2010. We have him projected to show an overall improvement in his 2nd year of service (no sophomore slump here!) with a forecasted of 0.66 FPI, 23 HR and 92 RBI.
2. A New Look in the Outfield - Juan Pierre (OF - Chicago White Sox) - Juan Pierre isn't going to raise any eyebrows at this stage of his career, but that doesn't mean he is worthless in fantasy. The 32-year-old Pierre is actually climbing up draft boards with an ADP of about 15.1 with the expectation of 600+ ABs. Pierre is a 3-category guy - Runs, Average, and SB. In limited action with the Dodgers (380 AB in 2009), Pierre hit .308 with 30 SB in 42 attempts. We have him projected for 47 SB and 88 runs, which may even be a little conservative. Pierre may be an overlooked guy on draft and could be a great "steal" for a #3/#4 outfielder with speed and run production. If you focus on power early, he's a nice average equalizer as well.
Kansas City Royals
1. Starting Pitching - Its More Than Just Zack Greinke - While Zack Greinke makes watching the Royals interesting again, Luke Hochevar should be on your watch list heading into the season. His ADP falls off the charts and we have him forecasted for a 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 134 K's in 172 IP. Nothing great by any means. But Hochevar started fooling around with a splitter late last season and the results were fairly obvious in his halve-splits. His ERA and WHIP were atrocious on both ends with his 2009 Pre-All Star Break 5.34 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and Post at 7.35 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. But take a look at his strikeout and walk rates. In the first half of the season, he posted a K/I of 0.45, about a strikeout every 2.0 IP. In the second half, he jumped to 0.93, almost a strikeout an inning. His K/BB rates improved from 1.30 to 3.08, not only due to an increase in K's, but a drop in BB's as well with a declining BB/9 from 3.14 to 2.73. Again, we're just making a case for putting Hochevar on the watch list, but those are certainly intriguing trends.
2. Rick Ankiel (OF - Royals) - Ankiel will be roaming CF in Kansas City this year. If the last few days of spring training are any indication, he could make a case for some fantasy value, but it will take a lot more spring production to move him up on my list. He hit a HR and drove in 4 yesterday, going 2-for-3 on the day. Not bad, but let's take a look at some strikeout rates and lefty/righty splits. In the last two years with St. Louis, we saw his BB/K rates decline drastically from 0.42 to 0.26. Both the numerator and the dominator went in the wrong direction. He went from averaging a K per every 4.6 plate appearances in 2008 to 4.0 in 2009. That's about a strikeout a game. Not good. His BB rate also declined, averaging a walk for every 10.8 appearances to 15.3 from '08 to '09. While his average is relatively flat lefty versus righty, we saw a big variance between his SLG% in 2009. Against righties, Ankiel hit all 11 of his HR's and posted a .417 SLG. Obviously, that leaves no home runs against lefties and a .298 SLG. There are too many holes in his offensive game to make him worth anything outside of AL-only leagues at this point.
Player Notes
1. Jose Reyes (SS - New York Mets) - "Overactive Thyroid" is the official diagnosis for Jose Reyes. More tests have been requested and we should have more information by Thursday. Since I'm not a doctor, a quick WebMD search revealed the possible symptoms of "hyperthyroidism" as weight loss, accelerated heartbeat, sweating, nervousness, and moody personality. The good news is that Reyes hasn't experienced any of these symptoms (although his on-field performance has certainly made me moody in the past) and says he feels good. The bad news is that the condition really could reveal itself at anytime and, combined with his off season leg surgery, becomes an even greater risk heading into draft day. Utilizing our Fantistics draft software, we see Reyes with an ADP of 2.07 (which may be a little inflated with this news), but ranks 5th among the elite SS. With not much expected in the average department and the power likely to be zapped even more by the cavernous Citi Field, Reyes' value is heavily weighted on speed. And if his leg health and overall energy is a concern, he becomes a bigger risk.
2. Josh Hamilton (OF - Texas Rangers) - Hamilton was back in action after taking the first couple weeks off with a bruised left shoulder. He said he felt great and it certainly looked that way with a 2-for-3 day at the plate. Hamilton's ADP is 4.11, ranking as the #16 outfielder with our Fantistics Projection Software as of this morning. That rank could actually be a steal if he can give us a glimpse of the 2008 breakout year in 2010. Last year's injury woes got the best of Hamilton and it showed with his power and his walk rates. In 2007 and 2008 (limited season in '07 with the Reds), Hamilton averaged a HR/AB of 15.7 and 19.5. Last year he dropped to 33.6. His walk rate in those first two years was exactly .508 - trading 1 walk for every two strikeouts. Last year, that rate dropped to .304 which is only one walk for more than 3 K's. The Fantistics preseason projection for Hamilton has him returning to his power glory of 29 HR and 103 RBI with a walk rate of about 0.4.
3. Jon Rauch (RP - Minnesota Twins) - With Joe Nathan out for an extended period of time (maybe the entire season) with a torn elbow ligament, the race to discover the next closer in Minnesota begins. Matt Guerrier had 33 holds last season with a solid 2.36 ERA in 79 appearances and is certainly a legitimate candidate. Other names that might see some 9th inning action are Pat Neshek, Clay Condrey, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares. I think John Rauch has the greatest chance of winning the job, having the most experience in the closer role with 26 saves over the last 5 seasons with Arizona and Washington. Watch this situation as it plays-out over the next couple of weeks, but anyone from this bullpen should be a last closer pick. If you also have the Holds stat in your leagues, Matt Guerrier should hold more weight since he may be able to contribute to both Holds and Saves throughout the season.
4. Stephen Strasburg (SP - Washington Nationals) - I'm not going to reinvent the wheel here. The #1 draft pick's potential is limitless and he is on everybody's list as the rookie to watch in 2010. In his first spring training appearance yesterday, he thew 2.0 IP and gave up 2 hits while recording 2 strikeouts. He looked good and mowed through the middle of the Tigers lineup. One outing doesn't change his perceived fantasy value for the season. He'll likely be a call-up post-May and has an ADP of about 20.0.
5. Chipper Jones (3B - Atlanta Braves) - The 37-year-old Jones isn't waiting until the regular season to start chalking-up the injuries. He jammed his thumb last week, but was back in action yesterday and seems to be ok. Jones is coming off one of his most disappointing seasons to date, leaving potential fantasy owners to wonder just how much value to place on him heading into 2010. With Jones comes the inevitable injury bug. He has only posted more than 500 AB once in the last 6 seasons and age is not on his side. He has an ADP of 10.1, which feels high given his inconsistent playing time and a declining XBH%. For my money, Jones has to fall on the draft board and become a steal for me to take a chance and to have to deal with backup 3B pickups throughout the season when he goes on the DL.
6. Jay Bruce (OF - Cincinnati Reds) - Jay Bruce is having a nice spring, going 5-for-10 with a HR. With limited time in 2009 with a DL-stint, Bruce only hit .223 in 2009 with a .304 OBP. With that said, he improved his HR/AB rate from his first season going from 19.7 to 15.7. The true indicator to look for here is his improvement in BB/K, going from 0.30 to 0.51. That's a big jump for a 22-year-old kid and it should lead to an increase in average and OBP in 2010, especially if he can learn to hit lefties (.330 SLG% against lefties versus .527 against righties). His ADP is about 8.0 right now.
7. Chris Young (SP - San Diego Padres) - Coming off of arthroscopic shoulder surgery in August, Chris Young looked good in his 2nd spring training appearance. He threw 46 pitches in 3.0 shutout innings and said he feels good. I have yet to see any published radar results, so its difficult to know if his velocity is back, but Young can be fantasy serviceable again if he return to his old self. We have him projected for 142 K's, a 4.25 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. Consider him a last round flier for your last pitching spot and it could yield decent dividends.
8. Matt Cain (SP - SF Giants) - Matt Cain has hurled two straight 3.0+ IP games and looked better this time around than his first. After posting a K/9 of 8.48 in 2005, Cain's strikeout rate has evolved into the mid-7.0's with consistency. Starting in 2006, that rate has leveled off to 7.34, 7.71, and 7.06. His 2009 was overshadowed by Lincecum (we should get used to it), but he did post a 2.89 ERA and a 1.18, ace-like numbers on most teams. We have him at 7.17 this season with a slight reversion back to the mean with a 3.40 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Either way, I think he continues to be an under-rated fantasy pitcher playing in a very-friendly pitcher's park.
9. Billy Wagner (Closer - Braves) - It might take some time for Wagner to work-out the cobwebs. Afterall, he only threw 16 innings last year and underwent elbow surgery. Yesterday, he looked comfortable on the mound, retiring all three Phillies batters he faced. Health is the key variable with Wagner, who is currently holding on to an ADP of 13.0. Forecasting him to be healthy should yield 30+ saves and a K/I of about 1.0, even at 38 years old.
10. Shane Victorino (OF - Phillies) - Victorino was finally back in action after nursing a sore right shoulder for the past couple of weeks. The injury doesn't look to be too serious and should change any draft strategies at this point. With a Phillies lineup that has remained relatively unchanged (especially at the top), we see Victorino's 2010 being largely consistent with his previous couple of years as a Phillie. We saw some improvements in 2009 with increases in EYE and XBH% that should remain, leading to an ADP of about 7.0.
