2010 Preseason Prep - Friday March 24, 2010

The Oakland A’s Bullpen:

Last year in this space I talked about the A’s bullpen noting the team’s unusual ability to find saves beyond the primary closer. Over the last 5 years, the A’s have averaged 35% of their total saves coming outside of the team leader in that category. In addition the primary setup man has averaged nearly 10 saves a season out of that role. Part of this has been due to some injury and flux at the position, but the other part comes in the A’s willingness to use other options at the back-end of games when their primary closer needs a break.

Last year, I highlighted Santiago Casilla as a nice sleeper option behind Brad Ziegler, but it turned out Andrew Bailey became the fantasy darling in the A’s pen. Bailey posted a 1.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 83 1/3 innings while racking up 26 saves; a campaign strong enough to earn Bailey the rookie of the year honors. While Bailey enters the 2010 season with a firm grip on the closer’s role, the A’s bullpen has had a history of producing cheap saves. This history coupled with Bailey’s struggles with elbow tendenitis this spring, make assessing the rest of the A’s bullpen a worthy cause; so let’s dig in!

First in line: Michael Wuertz

Wuertz benefited from the transition from Lou Pineilla’s doghouse into spacious Oakland Coliseum last year as his K Rate bounced back and his line drive rate returned back to normal. Billy Beane was wise to target Wuertz after an abnormal 2008 and reaped the rewards as Wuertz posted a 2.37 FIP in just under 79 innings. Wuertz even tallied 4 saves last year in 6 opportunities. Wuertz throws his slider an incredible 65% of the time and with good reason as his slider is a fantastic 21.7 wins above replacement. The heavy reliance on the slider brings some concerns of injury, but Wuertz is the obvious choice to replace Bailey if Bailey’s elbow issues linger; and with a career 3.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 9.8 K/9, Wuertz makes a viable MR option for those in deep leagues.

In the hole: Brad Ziegler

Ziegler entered last season as the favorite to close after posting a solid .218 average against and 1.06 ERA in 59 innings during his rookie season. Much of it was a mirage aided by a 92% LOB% and .246 BABIP, so some steps back were expected in 2009, but Ziegler actually made some mild improvements in skill. He raised his K Rate up to 6.63 K/9 (up from 4.53 K/9), while the GB Rate remained a stellar 62%, dropping his FIP from 3.72 to 3.17. Ziegler’s splits against lefties (career .868 OPS against), make him best used purely against RH’s, but he’s good enough at generating ground balls to get out of jams with double plays.

The Sleeper: Joey Devine

Devine’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and has already experienced some soreness with his balky elbow. But there has never been a question of stuff or talent when it comes to Devine. He posted an eye-popping 13.2 K/9 in the minor leagues, while posting a 9.5 K/9 at the major league level. His electric arm has struggled with command at times and health is always a concern, but he’s been labeled a future closer in multiple organizations and has the type of stuff to close if the opportunity presented itself.

Is Daric Barton emerging?

I touched on this year being a bit of a make or break year for Daric Barton. He’s faced intense competition in spring for AB’s at the 1B/DH spot through the team’s acquisitions of Jake Fox along with incumbent defensive liabilities like Jack Cust and Eric Chavez. Barton’s outplayed all the candidates this spring hitting .379 and slugging .655 in 29 spring AB’s. He’s continued the power growth he displayed in the 2nd half last season (8.2% EXBH Rate, .867 OPS in Sept/Oct), notching 6 extra base hits in his first 29 AB’s, while maintaining the usual elite EYE (10 BB’s, 5 K’s). As a 24 year old, Barton’s already mastered plate discipline and as his body fills out the power should come. While he won’t be an option in mixed formats, I think he’s terribly underappreciated in AL Only leagues.

Don’t Forget Ted Lilly on draft day

Typically when players come off of their career years it becomes difficult to get them at a good value. This is not the case with Ted Lilly whose average draft position has been suppressed by an offseason shoulder surgery that was supposed to keep Lilly out for at least the first two weeks of the season. Lilly’s been aggressive in his rehab, persistently asking the Cubs training staff to allow him to progress quicker than his timeline. On Friday he’ll make his first start in a major league game. Results won’t matter too much as Lilly is still very early in his personal spring training, but we’ll monitor reports on how his shoulder feels afterward. Currently he’s scheduled just to miss a few starts to begin the season, a number that isn’t worth the 4-5 round difference in where he’s going and where he should be going. While he’ll have a tough time producing another sub 1.10 WHIP, Lilly should be good for 11-15 wins, 150+ K’s and a mid-3’s ERA. While others draft upside of guys like Max Scherzer, Rich Harden, and Edwin Jackson; I’d prefer the reliability of Ted Lilly.

Cubs 5th starter spot down to 2?

Tom Gorzelanny answered Sean Marshall’s stellar start on Wednesday with a solid 6 innings of just 2 ER’s allowed (on 5 hits and 1 bb) that dropped his spring ERA to 3.07. Gorzelanny has struggled with command at times this spring but his 14 K’s in 17 IP continue to flash the improved K Rate he showed down the stretch with the Cubs last season. Meanwhile Sean Marshall has done everything that could be asked posting a 10:3 K:BB Ratio in 11 spring innings, while allowing just 2 ER’s. Marshall’s flashed skills that would translate to a nice back-end starting option at different times in his career (47% GB Rate career, 3.05 BB/9 Rate in 2007, 7.99 K/9 in 2008; but he’s struggled putting it all together as a starter and has been pigeon-holed a bit as a reliever. Both pitchers have clearly out-pitched Carlos Silva (5.73 ERA, 3 HR’s allowed in 11 spring IP), but one will likely find themselves on the outside looking in due to the Cubs lack of lefty options in the pen. John Grabow currently resides as the only LH in the pen (John Gaub remains another possibility) for sure and given Carlos Silva’s lack of experience in the bullpen, I could envision the Cubs starting the season with Marshall or Gorzelanny slotted in as the #4, while Silva takes the 1 start out of the 5 hole until Ted Lilly returns. This leaves one long-term spot to decide between the two lefties. While Marshall’s been better this spring, Lou Pineilla’s preference to use Marshall out of the pen may give Gorzelanny the upper-hand.

How will Sean Rodriguez’s big spring impact AB’s in the Rays lineup?

Sean Rodriguez has no doubt been the story of the 2010 spring training season as his .419/.468/.930 line has moved him from a question mark for the opening day roster to a question mark for the opening day lineup. Rodriguez’s strong spring coupled with his minor league track record (.881 OPS in over 3200 career minor league PA’s), will get him plenty of opportunities with the Rays, especially with Matt Joyce 50-50 to start the season. Joyce’s injury will open up RF for Ben Zobrist and allow Rodriguez to get some early season time in at 2B. Long-term the Rays will still take advantage of platoon split advantages, but I believe 350 PA’s for Rodriguez this season is likely and if he hits like he did in the minor leagues, he’ll have the chance to earn full-time AB’s like Ben Zobrist did last season. For those in deep mixed leagues (especially with a keeper format), Rodriguez is a nice late round selection, but he’s more of an ideal candidate in AL only right now as a MI option.

Wade Davis officially named #5 starter

Davis was officially named the 5th starter on Wednesday, reinforcing that this wasn’t much of a competition to begin with. Andy Sonnanstine had allowed just 2 ER’s in 9 IP, while Davis had posted a 10.24 ERA and walked 8 in 9 2/3 innings. The Rays wisely aren’t making the decision based on the spring results but instead based on track record, and particularly Wade Davis’ impressive debut last season. I’ve noted Davis’ strong upside in this space before, citing the career 3.28 ERA and 8.7 K/9 at the minor league level and now that he’s officially been named the 5th starter I expect some modest rise in ADP. While I still like him as a late round flier in mixed formats, the most important stat to predict his success this year will be the walks. His 3.3 BB/9 at the minor league level is just ok and in order to have success at the major league level he’ll need to be able to maintain that BB Rate without seeing the usual increase young players suffer when they adjust up a league. Because it’s the stat I’m paying most attention to this season with Davis, the 8 spring BB’s in 9+ innings is a concern and one that is making me a pause a bit. Right now he’s better option in AL Only than mixed, but worthy of a selection in both formats thanks to the upside in K Rate along with run support and defense in TB.

Notes from around Spring Training:

Phil Hughes SP, NYY – The SP next to Phil Hughes name became official on Thursday when the Yankees announced Hughes had earned the 5th spot in the Yankees starting rotation. Hughes was an elite SP prospect in the minors posting a 2.37 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in over 330 minor league innings with a stellar 10.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Perhaps the only blemish on Hughes record has been his inability to keep the ball on the ground (just 35% GB Rate). That’s been the lone problem again this spring as he’s allowed 5 HR’s in just 11 spring innings and will certainly be a problem pitching in homer-friendly Yankees Stadium, but Hughes offers some intriguing upside. His stuff played up out of the pen last season (FB increased velocity over 2 MPH) as you’d expect, but he also gained confidence in attacking the plate (first pitch strike % rose 4%, BB Rate dropped from 3.97 BB/9 to 2.93 BB/9). If he can attack the plate consistently his stuff should be able to generate a K/9 around 7.5-8.0. Along with great W potential and run support, Hughes should post a line somewhere along 10-13 wins, 4.15-4.50 ERA, 1.20-1.30 WHIP, and 150+ K’s. The ERA will be inflated because of a lot of HR’s allowed and this will ultimately limit some of his upside, but as a late-game option in deep leagues Hughes’ pedirgree brings some intriguing upside.

Russell Martin C, LAD – Martin owners got some unexpected good news on Thursday as Russell Martin indicated he intends to be back in the lineup for opening day. Martin was originally expected to miss the first week or two of the season in his recovery from a groin strain, but his recovery is ahead of schedule and he intends to get some time in Cactus League games early next week. Martin gets a nice head start over a number of catchers in fantasy simply because of his ability to play more games than most, but over the last 3 seasons his skills have been in serious decline. Martin’s ISO has dropped from .176 in 2007 to just .079 in 2009. His EYE still remains strong, but the extreme dip in power coupled with some natural loss in speed as he’s aged, has made Martin a far less intriguing fantasy player. Since he’s displayed the skill before and is only 27 there’s some hope for a rebound, but the unusual and rapid deterioration in his power during what should be his prime years leave a lot of questions surrounding Martin’s future. In 2 catcher formats I’d be comfortable with Martin as my 2nd C and in shallow formats I’d be OK taking the flier on him, but in any league where I’d be relying on Martin as my only option (without ability to replace through waiver wire), I’m hesitant to rely on Martin’s deteriorating peripherals.

Aroldis Chapman SP, CIN – Chapman owners got good news on two fronts on Thursday. Chapman had a long-toss session on Thursday and the Reds suggested he could be back on the mound as soon as Monday. In addition manager Dusty Baker reiterated Chapman was still in contention for the 5th spot in the rotation along with Travis Wood and Mike Leake. It was assumed the Reds would use the back spasms as an opportunity to keep Chapman in the minors to start the year and delay clauses in his contract that would allow for escalations in salary based on the start of the arbitration clock, but it appears the Reds remain serious about putting the best talent on the field to start the season regardless of financial implications. As such if Chapman’s healthy it’s looking more and more likely he’ll be the Reds 5th starter in April.

Conor Jackson OF, ARZ – CoJack lead off the game with a HR against Tom Gorzelanny and is making a serious case for leadoff duties against LHP in Arizona. Jackson’s quietly put together a tremendous spring after missing most of last season with Valley Fever. He’s hitting .400/.512/.686 with 6 extra base hits in 35 AB’s and a 7:3 BB:K Ratio. Jackson’s always shown great plate discipline and ability to work counts, but the elite power just hasn’t come for the former top prospect who posted a career .945 minor league OPS. For now he’s locked into the #2 hole in the lineup and with his strong OBP skills should generate plenty of Runs in a good hitters park. I view him similarly to a poor man’s Nick Johnson and someone that is a good safe late round target in 5-OF mixed leagues that are of the deeper variety.

Nate McLouth OF, ATL – Few regulars have had a worse spring than Nate McLouth. McLouth entered Thursday’s games just 2-38 (.053) with a whopping 14 K’s in those 38 AB’s. The good news is he went 1-4 on Thursday with his first HR of the spring, but McLouth owners have to be puzzled by the horrid start. Typically we don’t put too much stock into spring stats, but the elevated K Rate suggests it’s a bit more than just bad luck. For now the awful spring is actually creating a slight buying opportunity that is helping push McLouth onto a number of my teams and while I’m mildly concerned with the poor spring, I’m using it as more of a warning sign than an ultimate point for judgment on McLouth’s value this year.

Chris Carpenter SP, STL – Carpenter returned to his stellar form, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits over 6 innings against the Mets on Thursday. Carpenter had been roughed up by the Marlins in his previous outing and although the spring ERA was ugly for Carpenter coming into the game the 11:1 K:BB Ratio was more indicative of how he’s pitched. He remains an elite SP option with the only big question surrounding Carpenter being health.

Carlos Pena 1B, TB – Pena’s rough spring continued on Thursday with 3 more strikeouts, bringing his spring total to 11 in just 36 AB’s. He’s gone just 3-36 (.083) as he’s had some trouble getting his timing down here in spring. Given Pena’s long swing path and propensity for slumps, this isn’t a significant concern and may create a nice buying opportunity for the slugging 1B. Pena will always be a bit of a liability in the BA department but he’ll generate plenty of Runs, HR’s, and RBI’s likely settling in as the Rays #5 hitter.

Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, BOS – Dice-K got on the mound for the first time in a spring game this year with 2 innings against the Marlins on Thursday. He allowed 2 hits and 1 ER in his 2 innings of work without walking a batter or recording a strikeout. Dice-K’s fantasy stock crashed last year as he battled injuries and hitters taking a more patient approach. This year he’s largely being ignored in drafts as he’s expected to start the season on the DL. While the K and W potential are there for the Japanese RH, we’re skeptical he’ll be able to stay healthy or pound the strike zone enough to warrant attention in mixed leagues.

Scott Kazmir SP, LAA – Kazmir was scratched from his start on Thursday with some shoulder irritation. Kazmir had a mild revival with the Angels at the end of the 2009 season as he turned into a command specialist (2.4 BB/9) who benefited from some good fortune. Given that Kazmir’s never had great command and his K/9 with the Angels continued its downward trend (6.4 K/9), I remain skeptical that Kazmir’s abusive workloads as a youngster haven’t caught up to him. He’s someone I’m specifically avoiding in drafts this year.

Francisco Liriano SP, MIN – Liriano had an up and down start on Thursday allowing 8 base-runners in 4 innings, while striking out 6 and giving up 3 ER’s. The Twins continue to limit Liriano’s innings in the spring, but Rod Gardenhire indicated he has the upper-hand in a battle for the 5th spot in the rotation and while his spring ERA only sits at 3.86, the 22:2 K:BB ratio in just 14 innings jumps off the page. We’re projecting a nice bounceback for Liriano with 14 W’s, 175 K’s, 3.80 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP, and I’m actively moving him up my draft boards. After the big winter league showing and the improved command/k rate here in Spring, I’m a believer in Liriano’s comeback (after having just been burned badly last year).