2010 Preseason Prep

Twins 3B - The Twins' 3B "battle" pits the disappointing Brendan Harris against the scourge of all that is good, Nick Punto. With a career OPS of .647 and 5 HRs in 509 games over the last four years, you would think that Nick Punto had "backup" or "waiver wire" written all over him, but Ron Gardenhire loves Punto, so you never know. He throws in a handful of steals, but takes way more off the table fantasy-wise than he brings. Harris, on the other hand, looked like he was breaking out a bit as a 26 year old in Tampa three years ago, but has deteriorated significantly the past two years in Minnesota. With the O-Dog and J.J. Hardy manning the keystone this year, Harris' only option really is the 3B spot, and he's hitting as much as he can this spring (333/381/611 in a whopping 18 ABs) in an effort to grab it. If he wins the job, he does offer a modest amount of potential in deeper leagues, assuming he can reverse the slide of the past two years. I am skeptical that value will come pass, as likely either playing time or continued struggling will hamstring him, but the potential is there.

Twins CL - Going on the assumption that Joe Nathan will not be able to successfully rehab his torn UCL and will need surgery (which is not a certainty yet), figuring out the next option for saves in the Twin Cities is a necessary exercise for fantasy folk. Matt Guerrier appears to have the inside track right now, both based on his league-leading holds total last year for the Twins and his performance this spring (6 ip, 0 er). Jon Rauch has been mentioned as a possibility, I suppose because he closed in Washington for a few minutes. Pat Neshek is the one that intrigues me, although he allows a sizable number of homers to LHB. His K rate and WHIP are by far the best of the bunch, and I think he'd have the most success in the role. This battle likely won't be resolved for another few weeks, if even then, but if I were going to gamble and didn't mind getting a guy that didn't end up with the majority of the saves, Neshek would be my choice.

Brewers 4th and 5th SP - Not only are the Brewers looking at Manny Parra and Jeff Suppan for the last few spots in their rotation, but long-time minor leaguer Chris Narveson has inserted his name into the mix after a very successful first three spring outings. Spring stats are barely worth the bandwidth they use, but Narveson has gradually improved his control in the minors since his most recent arm injury, and his K rates have always been solid. If you're looking for someone that is almost completely off the radar as a sleeper, Narveson is a name to remember.

Brewers 3B - McGehee won't have to look over his shoulder for a while now, as the injury to Mat Gamel virtually assures McGehee of just about all of the 3B playing time until June at the earliest. I am totally not sold on McGehee, who had the highest AVG, OBP, SLG, and HR totals of his major AND minor league career last season. I do think he should be worried about Mat Gamel by the end of the year, and I think it's as possible that McGehee posts an OBP under .300 and a SLG under .400 than it is that he replicates last year's performance. His positional flexibility makes him a decent option in most formats, but I would prefer to be well prepared with a fallback option.

Tigers 4th and 5th SP - The candidates for #4 and #5 in the Tiger rotation are still numbering twice as many as the open slots, but are any of them worthwhile for more than a lottery ticket on draft day? Eddie Bonine is a classic example of a AAA pitcher that teams keep around in case they need four or five starts, so let's focus on the other three (four, if you count the recently demoted Armando Galarraga) candidates. Dontrelle Willis, even at his best, had perceived value that outstripped his actual value. His control deteriorated steadily from its peak in 2005, and even this spring he has walked five men in ten innings despite reports of his "much improved control". I suppose that's technically true, but Willis isn't likely to be a successful starter ever again in my opinion. Bonderman and Robertson are both returning from injury, and while neither should be expected to be successful (they've both been trending downward since 2006), Bonderman at least offers glimpses of possibilities stuff-wise. I'd have to be desperate to own him, but there's some upside. Galarraga was good the most recently, and since the Tigers sent him down in order to keep him starting, you have to think that he's the first man off the bench when one of the others falters. His K rates aren't extremely impressive, leading me to believe that his success was destined to be short-lived, so I'm not sure I'd be in favor of a grab there short of desperation either. In short, things look pretty ugly in Motown at the back of the rotation, and Bonderman is really the only one that I'd be keeping an eye on for a potential grab.

Tigers CF - Jackson has gone backwards a bit the past few years in the minors, but as a 23 year old that is likely to start for the Tigers in CF Opening Day, he still looks like a potential .300 hitter and a 20/20 man to me, and that's a package worth picking up. Jackson hit as many homers in 2007 as a 20 year old in A-ball as he has the past two years moving up the ladder, so there clearly is some power there, and he has already swiped over 30 bases in a season twice. The strikeout totals are high, but he's hit over .300 three times in five minor league seasons despite them, so the AVG probably isn't going to hurt either. I'm much more optimistic about his prospects than most, and would be happy to have him in my OF in the majority of formats this year, let alone in 2011 and beyond.

Brandon Wood - Despite a career minor league line of 286/354/541, Brandon Wood appears to have been almost written off because of 224 big league AB's spread out over three seasons. Still just 25 years old and possessing plenty of power, I have yet to see a projection for Wood surpassing a .762 OPS, a figure that I actually happen to think he'll manage this season in Anaheim. His strike zone discipline has stagnated a bit during his likely tedious tenure in Salt Lake City, so you don't see a lot of growth from him the past few years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some during the course of 2010 since he finally has a path to consistent playing time. I like the over on Wood's projections from all sources this year, and I think he's a very solid sleeper on draft day.

Brett Gardner - It's up in the air just how many plate appearances Brett Gardner will get for the Yanks, but the man can get on base a little and can steal bases with the best of them, so 450 PA's in the 9th spot of the Yankee order could easily result in 70 runs and 35-40 steals. His ceiling is low, as he has virtually no power potential at all, but what he does bring to the table might be enough to justify his selction for your OF.

Justin Masterson - An AL starter with some preseason forecasts of an ERA under 4.00? Everyone wants one of those, and Justin Masterson has them. Masterson is expected to be a full-time member of the Indian rotation this year, and with swing-and-miss groundball-inducing stuff he's a very solid choice for a fantasy rotation as well. His control (4.13 BB/9 as a big leaguer) is an (probably "the") issue, but I'd be extremely surprised if he is not only an above average starter in 2010, but also the Indians' ace by the break.

Jonny Gomes - The Reds OF situation remains unsettled outside of Jay Bruce, so Jonny Gomes and his .274 ISO (2009 version) certainly appear to be a possible source of power production in 2010. Outside of pop Gomes isn't going to offer very much, and at age 29 there isn't much hope for growth either, but power is enough for the last few spots in your lineup. The options that the Reds have besides Gomes are uninspiring to say the least (Chris Dickerson, Laynce Nix, Drew Stubbs), so I'd have to believe that Gomes is indeed a worthwhile addition to your team late in the selection process this spring.

Felix Pie - In part 2 of young players stuck in 4th OF roles, 25 year old Felix Pie looks to be another case of potential without play. Pie hit .287 with a .200 ISO after the break last year, and showed solid to dramatic growth in almost every facet of his game after coming to Baltimore. Unfortunately, the signing of Garrett Atkins has pushed Luke Scott into the DH role, and with Reimold, Jones, and Markakis manning the OF that doesn't leave a lot of PT for Felix. Again, he's an injury away from being rather valuable, and his potential is as impressive as just about anyone's, but he likely isn't worth a roster spot at this juncture.

Gerardo Parra - Gerardo Parra should drop a bit down your boards this spring, as the signing of Adam LaRoche has created a logjam at the corners, one which has Parra apparently the odd man out. Parra's promising .302 AVG in the 2nd half last season somewhat masked issues in every part of his game, but there clearly was enough promise there (15 2B, 5 SB after the break) as a 22 year old to justify continued development. Instead, the D-Backs appear to be counting on Chris Young and Conor Jackson to man the two non-Upton spots in the outfield, leaving Parra as the fourth OF at present. I still think there's potential here, but potential without PT is a waste of a roster spot in most formats.

Colby Lewis - The Rangers are expected to have an excellent shot in an open AL West this season, but their rotation is still full of question marks. One interesting sleeper (in deeper leagues, of course) is Colby Lewis, the former Ranger prospect who has been pitching in Japan for the past two seasons. His statistics in Japan (46 BB, 369 K in 55 G) were tremendous, and although translating those figures stateside is still more art than science, it certainly appears that Lewis has improved his control considerably the past few years. Outisde of Rich Harden and possibly Brandon McCarthy, I don't see a lot of guys that I personally have confidence in slated for rotation time in Texas, so taking a late-game flyer on Lewis, or at the very least keeping a close eye on him for the next month, would be a pretty sound idea.

Wade Davis - With the Rays shipping out Jeremy Hellickson, it appears that the fifth starter's spot is Davis' to lose, with Andy Sonnanstine hanging around as insurance for the youngster. Davis is 24 years old and features a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve, so the strikeout numbers have always been solid, but his control is still suspect at times, leading me to wonder whether he can live up to the high expectations created by his impressive six-start debut last fall. Davis is a nice sleeper pick late, but could possibly be a bit overvalued at first. If he does struggle a bit, which I think is likely, I'd be happy to stash him on reserves in anticipation of eventual success at the big league level.

Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco was lights out again yesterday for the Marlins, bringing his preseason tally to 12 IP, 0 BB, and 16 K's with another five solid innings against the Mets. Nolasco has improved his K rate and HR rate in each of his three full big league seasons, but certainly could be a bit undervalued on draft day this year because of a 5.00+ ERA last season. As Michael mentioned last month, don't let that stop you...Nolasco is unlikely to replicate last year's unlucky BABIP here in 2010, and his BB and K rates are top-tier caliber.

Nationals RF - The Nationals' release of Elijah Dukes was most surprising because of their lack of current options, so it's worthwhile to theorize about their plan here. Out of the current camp composition, the only thing that really makes sense is more playing time for Willie Harris. Harris will give you some steals and probably won't kill your OBP, but that's about it. The other thought is that they might go and pursue free-agent Jermaine Dye, who suffered through his lowest ISO since 2004 last season at age 35. Dye could be of some use in NL-only leagues for his power, but appears to be perilously close to a steep decline. Still, he certainly is worth a flyer late, as it's unlikely that a Harris/Maxwell platoon would last very long for a team that is already going to scuffle for offense at every position up the middle.