Tigers No. 4 and 5 starters – Detroit has a very competitive 1-2-3 with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer, but it’s the other 40% of the rotation that could determine the club’s fate this season. A healthy Jeremy Bonderman will claim another slot, and he’s off to a good start with two scoreless innings Wednesday. Check on report of his velocity and invest a late pick if reports are good, though Bonderman’s last above-average fantasy season was back in 2006 when he notched 202 strikeouts. The rest of the competitors include Nate Robertson, recovering from elbow and groin injuries and also irrelevant since 2006, Dontrelle Willis and his widely-publicized issues, and dark horses such as Phil Coke, Eddie Bonine, Armando Galarraga, etc. Expect Robertson to be the guy if he has a decent spring, but this is probably a battle worth ignoring in all but the deepest leagues.
Tigers Outfield – Manager Jim Leyland said last week that Carlos Guilin would be the full-time DH, leaving Johnny Damon in LF, Magglio Ordonez getting most of the RF at-bats, and probably rookie Austin Jackson in CF is fares okay this spring. Odd man out – Ryan Raburn coming off an impressive .291/.359/.533 stint in 261 at-bats last season. The Tigers obviously don’t think Raburn (so-so 0.43 EYE and 77% CT%) would keep those numbers up over a full season. He’ll be a super-utility guy this year, spelling all three outfields and seeing time at 2B and 3B on occasion. I’d take a flier here in deeper leagues, as Ordonez and Guillen aren’t exactly locks for 500 at-bats and if Raburn proves he can handle 3B defensively, Brandon Inge and his .230 BA and 170 strikeouts could be in trouble.
Twins Third Base – The Twins whiffed on the guys they were pursuing for this job (Adrian Beltre for one), leaving this job up for grabs. The competitors aren’t exactly a who’s who of great third basemen: Nick Punto, Danny Valencia, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert. Punto can draw a few walks now and then, but his .647 career OPS is more bench-worthy than staring CI worthy. Tolbert struggles vs. RHP and can’t hit for power. Harris may be the leading candidate after signing a two-year deal in January, but his career line of .267/.324/.396 only looks good stacked up against the aforementioned Tolbert/Punto combination. That leaves the 25 year-old Valencia who batted a respectable .285/.337/.446 with 14 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s not an elite prospect, but he’s got a good glove and 15 homer power. Take a flier on him in AL-only formats, but none of these options are especially fantasy noteworthy.
Twins OF/DH Situation – Three outfield slots + DH = four jobs. Three will be filled by Denard Span (CF), Michael Cuddyer (likely RF), and Jason Kubel (LF and/or DH), leaving Delmon Young versus Jim Thome for the other at-bats. The Twins have said that Young is their guy in LF (Kubel DH), but Young is clearly at a crossroads. He’s still just 24, but he’s simply not doing enough to justify a rapidly escalating salary ($2.4MM this year, ??? in 2010). The primary culprit has been a glaring lack of plate discipline – 4% BB% and 0.21 EYE in over 1,700 big league at-bats. That could be somewhat excused (ok, not really) if he were hitting for power, but with just 12 HR per 550 at-bats, he’s not. Young reportedly came to camp down 30 lbs. over last season, so maybe he’s starting to realize that he can’t live off his past prospect status and draft position. He’s an interesting sleeper, but keep an eye on the BB/K ratio this spring more than BA.
Brewers Third Base – After essentially coming out of nowhere at age 26 to bat 301/.360/.499 in 116 games, Casey McGehee enters 2010 camp as the overwhelming favorite to be the Brewers’ guy at third base. McGehee had hit .296/.345/.429 at Triple-A the previous season, but going to the big leagues and adding 85 points of OPS was a year that no preseason projections captured with any degree of accuracy. There was some luck on balls in play (.335 BABIP) and a 0.51 EYE is fine, but certainly not elite. Still, McGehee’s year is even more impressive when you consider he underwent knee surgery in October because the knee had been bothering him for a good portion of the year. So what to do with Mat Gamel? Probably trade bait. He’s at a bit of a crossroads, having put up excellent minor league numbers up until last year when his CT% mysteriously took a dive to 67%. Of even greater concern is that he’s a man without a position. Barring vastly improved defense this spring, Gamel might already be a DH-in-waiting, so perhaps a trade to an AL team would be in both parties’ best interests.
Brewers No. 5 starter – According to reports, the Brewers will not factor in Jeff Suppan’s $12.5 million 2010 salary when they name their rotation this season. The top four slots are set with Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, and Davis, with Suppan and Manny Parra competing for one slot. Suppan has gotten progressively worse for Milwaukee after they signed the World Series hero to an ill-advised four-year $42 million deal three years ago. ERAs – 4.62, 4.96, and 5.29. K/9 rate is down in each of the past two to 4.5 and walks are up during the same period to 4.1/9. There’s really nothing nice to say here. Meanwhile, Manny Parra – disappointment, but still just 27. Parra has as 5.17 career ERA, but his 7.8 K/9 hints that there’s something here worth paying attention to. He’s had a consistently high BABIP, though perhaps there’s room for improvement in last year’s .365 mark and there’s certainly an opportunity to cut down on that 1.2 HR/9. It’s early, but I can see Parra winning the job with Suppan being cut despite the salary. “Sunk cost” anyone?
Nick Johnson (DH-NYY) – Manager Joe Girardi has stressed the importance of on-base percentage as he debates whom to install as his No. 2 hitter. This is notable, as whoever that winds up being will be hitting behind Derek Jeter and in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Illustrious company indeed. Johnson is seemingly one of two candidates for the slot, with Curtis Granderson being the other. Johnson seems like the perfect fit – career .402 OBP (.426 a year ago) and an EYE greater than 1.00 in each of the last four seasons. Granderson’s OBP numbers are far more modest - .327 last season, .344 career, and he’s accumulated 140+ strikeouts in three of the last four seasons. The Yankees may prefer his power bat lower in the order. Johnson though is already nursing a sore back, though we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt (for now) and consider it early spring soreness. A situation worth monitoring closely.
Kiko Calero (RP-NYM) – The Mets’ bullpen beyond closer Francisco Rodriguez is sketchy at best, with Kelvim Escobar in an indefinite hiatus with a sore shoulder and Ryota Igarashi being a relative unknown commodity. Enter Kiko Calero. Calero was signed to a minor league deal on Thursday, a year after posing these impressive numbers – 1.95 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and just 26 hits in 60 innings for the Marlins. Concerns over the state of his shoulder kept him on the market this long, but if Calero can prove he’s healthy, he’ll be the closer-in-waiting behind the declining K-Rod.
Jose Reyes (SS-NYN) – Reyes was scratched from Thursday’s lineup due to an unknown issue uncovered during an exam, but he was later cleared to resume playing. It was probably nothing serious, but this could serve to depress Reyes’ draft position that much further. It’s easy to forget he’s still just 26, but a year after playing in just 36 games due to a hamstring injury, Reyes is a long way from being a safe bet as a first round fantasy pick. I wouldn’t expect his salad days (78 SB) to return any time soon, but a healthy Reyes is still young enough to hit .290 with 40 steals and 12-15 home runs. Let’s just hope his legs cooperate.
Chris Getz (2B-KC) – Getz is looking like one of the better sleepers at second base. He’s expected to supplant Alberto Callaspo as the starter, though Callaspo will get plenty of at-bats playing multiple positions (this according to manager Trey Hillman). Getz hit just .261/.324/.347 for the White Sox last season, which is nothing special, but he did maintain a strong 86% CT% and for fantasy owners, you have to look at the 25 stolen bases in just 107 games. Project that over 150 games and you’re looking at 35-40 steals with perhaps 10-12 home runs at best. Still a solid late-round option and the Royals potential lead-off hitter.
Hunter Pence (OF-HOU) – Pence went 3-for-3 with a pair of homers (both in inning #4) and a double in Thursday’s game against Washington, so he’s off to a nice start this spring. Pence turns 27 next month and appears poised for a career year. He showed very impressive progress at the plate a year ago, improving his EYE from 0.32 to a respectable 0.53 and cutting his K% more than two full points. Pence though continued to hit ground balls at a surprisingly high rate of close to 53%, a number that if he could get more in the 45% range would see his HRs increase from 25 to 30+. Easier said than done, but perhaps Thursday is an early indication it’s possible.
Ike Davis (1B-NYM) – Let the NY hype machine begin. The Mets have a hole at first base (sorry David Murphy fans) now that Carlos Delgado has apparently moved on, and Davis has emerged as a possibility. Davis was the club’s first-round pick in 2008 and he’s already making a push for big league time, walking twice and hitting a long grand slam in Thursday’s game. Of course the homer came off a guy who will likely be pumping gas for a living soon, but it was impressive nonetheless. Davis batted .298/.381/.524 with 31 doubles with 20 homers between High-A and Double-A last season with an adequate 0.51 EYE. Also in his favor is that he’s the superior defender to Murphy and he’ll turn 23 later this month. The time may be now despite the lack of pro experience. If that all wasn’t impressive enough, Davis also hit .341 in 85 at-bats during Arizona Fall League competition.
Rickie Weeks (2B-MIL) – Weeks was 2-for-2 with a walk and stolen base on Thursday, his first game since May 2009 when he underwent wrist surgery. He’s set to be the team’s 2B and leadoff hitter, and with the big boppers behind him, Weeks could be in line for 110+ runs scored if he can remain healthy. That’s the rub of course, as Weeks has yet to tally 500 at-bats in any of his five big league seasons due to a variety of injuries. When healthy though, the former #2 overall draft pick has intriguing talent. Plate discipline? Check - .351 career OBP despite a .247 BA. Power? Check. As a second baseman, a 29.4 AB/HR rate is more than acceptable. Speed? Check, again. Weeks has 27 stolen bases per 162 games played. If healthy, a 20/30 season is certainly a reasonable goal, and with his value down due to injuries, he’s a guy to target.
Aroldis Chapman (SP-CIN) - Chapman will make his much-anticipated Cactus League debut on Monday, but in the meantime, reports of his one-inning intrasquad game are glowing. Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said. "He's athletic around the mound. I wasn't disappointed in any way." Chapman tossed one scoreless innings, hitting one batter (prospect Todd Frazier on the knee with a 95 mph fastball - sorry Todd), allowing a double to top prospect Yonder Alonso, and recording a pair of strikeouts while hitting 97 on the radar gun. Now we have no idea how accurate the gun is, but I still like the number 97. Perhaps most importantly, Chapman's changeup drew rave reviews, as that was the one pitch that had detractors. All signs seem to point to his being the Reds' No. 5 starter, though there are financial incentives in Chapman's contract that make it worth the Reds' while to have him start in Triple-A.
Jordan Schafer (OF-ATL) - Remember this guy? Schafer is still working his way back from a wrist injury and won't be ready for game action for another week. He got a ton of hype last spring, won the CF job out of spring training, but hit just .204 and found himself in Triple-A come June. It was later revealed he'd been playing with a wrist injury that eventually required surgery, so look past the down 2009, realize he's still just 23, and grab yourself a steal. Schafer recorded an impressive 14% BB% in Double-A in 2008 while also putting up a .202 ISO as a 21 year-old. He has 20/20 potential and while he'll open 2010 in Triple-A, this is a guy to keep an eye on.
Jason Castro (C-HOU) – The starting catcher job battle in Houston is worth watching, with Castro and J.R. Towels battling for the job. Towles was 2-for-3 with Castro going 1-fo-4 on Thursday.. Long term the Astros are probably better off having Castro open the year in Triple-A, as Castro is clearly the superior prospect after batting .300/.380/.446 with 10 homers and 73 RBI in 446 at-bats. Between High-A and Double-A a year ago. He has top-10 catcher upside.
