The Inconsistent Player
Several years ago we introduced
Consistency
Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well
as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup. We run and
update this piece every season because of it's veracity.
Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games
or quality weekly output.
The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a
consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.
Essentially
we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes.
The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is
paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.
Below is a list of the worst
hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2010 (based on 375 ABs).
The column below, Weekly 2010, is a recording of each player's 2010 quality weeks (out of a max possible
26 weekly observations). Also included is their 3 year average consistency
percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.
As you can
see, many of 2010's inconsistent players have a history of
inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets
of the original premise: Inconsistent players usually stay
inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus the players that show a
3YR history below 40% are at risk to post consistent yearly
results.
We know
what to expect from Ceasar Izturis on a year to year
basis: lack luster fantasy output. However there are players
such as Casey Blake, Troy Glaus, AJ Pierzynski, Ivan
Rodriguez, Lyle Overbay, Ty Wiggington, Raul Ibanez, and
Melky Cabrera who have posted decent fantasy production
at different points in their careers. Expecting them to
return to glory is the risk that we seek to avoid,
especially on draft day. As these players are on the
backside of the age mountain....and as you get older,
favorable consistency declines.
An example
of some of the players we do expect to increase production
this year, based on their youth and talent level include:
Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, Elvis Andrus, Gordon Beckham,
Nyjer Morgan, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Laporta, and Aaron
Hill. However their upside is limited based on their
seemingly inability to be consistent.
When
considering
Consistency Factor both injury and playing time risks
are an additional factor to consider when evaluating
players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor
indicator on the Player Pages within the software, you'll
get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you
on draft day....this is especially relevant if you play in
weekly head to head league.
As every
year, I do want to stress that 1st and 2nd year players
should be given leeway, as they are just getting their
feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent
hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the
youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be
remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes
remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value
come draft day. For those who
are interested in consistency factor (register), it's conveniently listed
for each player in the Forecaster section of the projections
screen (see example below) and
you can also sort a player's 2010 Weekly Consistency (WC) and
Daily Consistency (DC) by selecting to view those columns in the Player
Projections software.
Anthony A. Perri
Statistician and Publisher
-Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com
 
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