Dodgers 2B battle - This is Blake DeWitt vs. Ronnie Belliard. Jamey Carroll is there as well, but more than likely he was signed as a utility man, capable of playing time all over the field. DeWitt of course had that .344 OBP in 2008 after a rash of injuries gave him the 3B job out of camp, but he tailed off drastically last year, likely due in part to doing the LA/Albuquerque shuffle too often. DeWitt’s bat (34.1 AB/HR, .166 ISO) profiles far better at 2B than third, and if he can show enough defense this spring, he’s probably the favorite. Don’t discount Ronnie Belliard, but when you’re looking at his .351 AVG with the Dodgers, look at it in context with a .393 BABIP. Belliard did have a .372 OBP with the Nationals in 2008, so his 2009 numbers aren’t completely flukish. I’ll venture to guess he wins this battle.
Dodgers No. 5 starter - Let’s quickly break down the candidates, at this point rumored to be James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Eric Stults, Russ Ortiz (gulp), and Josh Lindblom. Torre likes his veterans, but can’t we quickly eliminate Ortiz? Maybe not, but I have to think a better option emerges from the other four. Stults has shown flashes (including a complete-game last year against the Giants) and he’s left-handed, but Stults is also 30 with a career 4.84 ERA and even worse peripherals (1.56 K/BB). McDonald failed as a starter last April but shined in relief, suggesting that’s his best long-term option. He’ll get another shot as a starter however. Elbert is the most talented of the bunch, boasting double-digit K/9’s all throughout the minors, though durability and command issues persist. Lindblom has the least pro experience of the bunch, but he was a second-round pick in 2009 who almost made the team out of camp last year. Like McDonald, Lindblom’s greatest success has come as a reliever. I don’t have a clear-cut favorite right now, though I would lean toward either Elbert or McDonald, both of whom would become quick sleeper candidates if they won the job.
Giants No. 5 starter - This appears to be Madison Bumgarner’s job to lose, but his struggles with his velocity over the second half of last year has to be a red flag. This is second hand news, but I’ve heard from someone that follows the Giants closely that his velocity is still down. Perhaps he, like most, just needs time to loosen up, but Bumgarner in the rotation is far from a slam dunk despite these minor league numbers – 273 IP, 1.65 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.4 K/9. Bumgarner regressed to a 5.8 K/9 in Double-A last year before his late-season promotion to the big club. His primary competitor appears to be Todd Wellemeyer, he of the excellent 2008 and polar-opposite 2009. Bumgarner is obviously the higher upside guy, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him in Triple-A come April.
Giants Right Fielder - Mark DeRosa and Aaron Rowand are set at the other two positions, and barring a late signing, the Giants appear set to open up right field to one (or more) of the following: Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholz, or Eugenio Velez. None of these guys are great options, but we’ll try and sort through this mess. Schierholz has been speculated to be the early front-runner, but this is a guy with just six career homers in 472 at-bats which combined with a 4.2 BB%, screams replacement level. On the plus side, he’s proven to be above average defensively and in 2008 posted a .957 OPS in Triple-A. Lewis meanwhile can draw a few walks, but his power is below average for a corner OF and a 74% CT% is mediocre at best. He also can’t hit lefties at all (.164/.292/.200 in 55 at-bats last year, .242 AVG career), so he’s a platoon guy at best. Schierholtz also hits from the left side, but exhibits severe reverse platoon splits - .387/.408/.602 career, though that’s in 93 at-bats spread over three years. He’d stand a better than average chance at being exposed with full-time duty. Velez offers SB potential for fantasy owners, but he’s simply not good enough (.701 career OPS) to deserve more than 200 at-bats. Look for Schierholtz to win this job.
Diamondbacks’ No. 4 and 5 starters - Billy Buckner was reported on Wednesday to be the leading candidate for the No. 5 slot, with assumedly Ian Kennedy filling the four-hole. Assuming Brandon Webb is healthy, Arizona boasts a 1-2-3 that is built for the playoffs, but the 4 and 5 slots are a big question mark. Buckner has a 5.74 career major league ERA and coupled with a so-so minor league track record, it makes it tough to recommend him in any format. Kennedy meanwhile comes over from the Yankees, and after a shoulder injury wiped out most of 2009, he recovered in time to impress in the Arizona Fall League. After a 2008 in which he posted a 2.35 ERA and impressive 72:17 K:BB in 69.1 Triple-A innings, there’s at least an average chance Kennedy develops into a solid No. 4 this season.
Diamondbacks’ top set-up man - Normally the battle for a team’s setup man role isn’t worthy of a whole lot of attention, but when the team’s closer is coming off knee surgery, other guys behind him bear watching. Chad Qualls could certainly come to camp and be his old self, but watch the battle between Juan Gutierrez and Esmerling Vasquez for the eighth inning job is worth paying attention to. Gutierrez closed in Qualls’ absence last year, putting up an 8.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9, but a 0.25 HR/9 likely isn’t sustainable. Vasquez meanwhile was far less effective with a 7.6 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9. Vasquez though has as good of stuff as Gutierrez, if not better, and has the potential to take a big step forward next season. He also added 15 pounds due to a new workout regimen this winter if you take stock in those sort of things.
Johnny Damon, OF, DET - According to manager Jim Leyland, Damon’s likely landing spot in the Detroit lineup is the two-hole Don’t think this is set in stone, as apparent leadoff favorite, Austin Jackson, is far from a sure thing having notched back-to-back 100+ strikeout seasons in the upper minors. Depending on how things shake out with Jackson this spring, Damon could easily find himself leading off. Dropping to second would seem to have a negligible effect on Damon’s fantasy value – perhaps a few more RBIs. Damon obviously doesn’t run as much as he used to, so the SB impact would be minimal. If Jackson can’t win the leadoff job, Damon would hit there, followed by Scott Sizemore, leaving Sizemore’s fantasy value tied to that of Jackson’s somewhat.
Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX - Newsflash: Hamilton is hurt. While it doesn’t seem serious, Hamilton hurt his shoulder diving for a ball during outfield drills on Wednesday. “Here we go again” could be heard throughout Texas shortly thereafter, as Hamilton of course played in just 89 games last year due to an assortment of injuries. We’ll give Hamilton the benefit of the doubt and attribute a good portion of his .268/.315/.426 line to those injuries, but does a sore neck cause his BB% to drop from 9.1% to 6.6%? I’m not quite ready to chalk up 2008 as a career year, but I’m getting close, particularly if 2010 confirms that his body is indeed made of glass.
Sean Rodriguez, 2B/OF, TB - According to comments by Rodriguez on Wednesday, he and Reid Brignac are likely competing for one roster spot. Brignac is probably better defensively, though Rodriguez may be more versatile and he carries a bigger stick. In 2009, all Rodriguez did was bat .299/.400/.616 with 29 homers in 365 at-bats. One possible scenario has Rodriguez outhitting Matt Joyce this spring, leaving Rodriguez at second base and Ben Zobrist in RF. There aren’t many better deeper sleepers right now, and manager Joe Maddon reportedly loves Rodriguez from being around him in their days in the Angels’ organization.
Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA - The top-three in the Florida order will reportedly be as follows: Chris Coghlan, Maybin, Hanley Ramirez. Maybin showed noticeable improvement in his batting eye last year, improving from 0.48 in Double-A the year prior to 0.66 in Triple-A where he posted a .399 OBP. He turns just 23 in April and looks to have a huge career ahead of him.
Russell Branyan, 1B, CLE - Branyan was named the team’s primary first baseman on Wednesday, a somewhat curious move given the fact it’s still February. This of course has as much to do with Branyan’s 31 homers last year as it does his new salary, but it leaves questions as to who is hurt the most among Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. Brantley was a solid sleeper for SB, but it’s likely LaPorta gets the nod in LF given his status as the guy the Indians got for CC Sabathia. Branyan meanwhile hit .251/.347/.520 a year ago, and while the power probably regresses, Branyan has somehow posted a HR/F rate in excess of 20% five years running. Yep, that’s directly attributable to his great raw power.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD - Gonzalez maintained Wednesday that he wants to remain a Padre for life, but won’t offer the club a hometown discount. That immediately starts the clock on a Gonzalez trade, as there’s no chance the Padres are going to pay a guy $18 million a year when they can potentially get three guys in return making less than 10% of that amount. Gonzalez has seen his HR total rise in each of the past three years, from 24 to 30 to 36, and finally to 40 in 2010 – all that while playing 50% of his games in a park that turns some hitters into Deadball era guys. I say all this not to tell you how good he is – you know that – but to warn NL-only leaguers that the rumored #1 pursuer should Gonzalez be put on the market is the Boston Red Sox. Gonzalez was limited to 90 RBI last year, due in part to the lack of guys on base in front of him, but also to the spike in his BB% from 10.6% to 17.5% as pitchers smartly realized that Chase Headley and the now-departed Kevin Kouzmanoff weren’t going to beat you.
Aroldis Chapman, SP, CIN - We’re going to be writing quite a bit about this guy in 2010 methinks. There are incentives built into Chapman’s contract that make it favorable for the Reds to delay his service time and have him open 2010 in the minors, but if he’s ready this spring, I’d fully expect the Reds to have him start as their No. 5 starter, as all that’s in front of him there right now are Matt Maloney and Micah Owings (5.34 ERA in 2009). There wasn’t a radar gun on Chapman for his throwing session Wednesday apparently, but he was said to be hitting the “mid 90s”, a great sign this early in camp. The thing to watch this spring is Chapman’s command. If he can keep his walks to a minimum (around 3.5 BB/9 or lower), he’s got a good chance at breaking camp in the rotation.
Chone Figgins, 3B, SEA - Some raised eyebrows in Mariners’ camp today, as Chone Figgins was taking grounders at 2B with Jose Lopez over at third. This arrangement is far from set in stone, particularly considering Figgins’ excellent defensive skills at 3B. This would seem to be a move to hide Lopez’s glove at a less-stressful defensive position, but Jose was far from brutal as a second baseman defensively from as UZR/150 perspective (1.5). I don’t see this arrangement taking hold, but if it does, Figgins’ fantasy value gets a nice boost, even though the 2B pool appears to be fairly deep this year.
Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS - The Nationals signed Livan Hernandez to a one-year deal on Wednesday, thus tying up one more rotation spot. As it stands, Hernandez, John Lannan, and Jason Marquis are guaranteed three of the five slots, leaving Strasburg, Garrett Mock, J.D. Martin, and Craig Stammen vying for two slots and Chien-Ming Wang targeting a May/June return for one other slot. Strasburg could make sending him to the minors impossible with a lights-out spring, but the Nationals have all the financial incentive in the world to keep him down until June, thus delaying his arbitration eligibility a year. I expect just that to happen.
Felipe Lopez, 2B, ??? - It’s been an interesting offseason for Lopez. Despite being just 29 and coming off a year in which he batted .310/.383/.427 with the D-backs and Brewers, Lopez garnered little attention on the free agent market. However, after having fired agent Scott Boras, rumors have Lopez landing with one of his former teams, the Cardinals, any day. Should that happen, it will be interesting to see how Lopez is used. He was an above average defensive second baseman last year, but the Cards just gave their current 2B, Skip Schumaker, a new two-year deal after Schumaker batted .303 with a .364 OBP. Shortstop Brendan Ryan recently had surgery on his wrist, so there’s some concern there unless you ask Ryan who steadfastly maintains he’ll be ready for Opening Day. In addition, Lopez was a brutal shortstop defensively and hasn’t played the position since 2008 regardless. Perhaps he’d get a look at third where the Cardinals don’t have a proven hitter, but regardless, Lopez’s presence would probably wind up cutting into the playing time of multiple players.
