New York Mets:
The Mets improved their catcher situation from disaster to merely bad when they added veteran Rod Barajas. While he is clearly an upgrade over the offensively challenged duo of Omir Santos and Henry Blanco, Barajas had his own problems last year, .226 batting average in 429 AB with the Blue Jays in 2009.
Santos has little power and poor plate patience, 7 home runs, 14 doubles, and a 5% BB% in 281 AB in 2009. His 85% Ct% “helped” him to a .260 batting average last year but it was the best Ct% he has put in his career at any level. At 28 years of age it is hard to believe that it is a new skill and you get the feeling the more major pitchers see of him, 79% Ct% in the last month of 2009, the more the whiffs will pile up. He most likely will start the season in Triple-A.
Blanco put up the best power numbers of his career, 6 home runs and 12 doubles in 204 AB, which was still only league average. Well into his late 30’s, he turns 39 in August; it is hard to believe that this is a new skill. It feels fluky and the limited exposure to major league pitchers certainly didn’t hurt. Even if he repeats that power in a backup role, it will come with poor contact skills, 75% Ct%, zero speed, and most likely poor plate patience, 2007/2008/2009 BB%’s 4%/5%/11%, which will hurt your team batting average, .235 average last year. His value is limited to the deepest of NL-only leagues.
Barajas flashed some good power, 19 home runs in 429 AB last year, and with a .187 BHIP%, you would think he was poised for some big batting average upside. However his BHIP% is historically low, 2006/2007/2008 BHIP%’s .221/.186/.209, and his high FB% of 57% last year, means that some of those fly balls that left the yard in the AL last year will fall into outfielder’s mitts on or near the warning track in spacious Citi Field. Add in no speed, poor plate patience, 4% BB%, and an average 82% Ct%, it is hard to see too much batting average upside for Barajas.
Barajas is clearly the best option for the Mets but there are better options in fantasy leagues.
The battle for the Mets 5th spot in the rotation is likely between southpaw Jonathan Niese and right-hander Fernando Nieve.
Niese has performed well in Triple-A, 2008/2009 ERA’s 3.40/3.82, K/9’s 7.4/7.3, and BB/9’s 3.2/2.5, but it has yet to translate into major league success, 5.22 ERA in 39.2 innings over the last two years. He is still only 23 years of age and if he can curb the walks, 3.9 BB/9, we could see a breakthrough at the major league level, but there could be some growing pains early in the season.
Based on his numbers with the Mets last year, 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 8 appearances, 7 of those being starts, it would appear that Nieve should be the winner, but those numbers are deceiving. An 84% strand rate kept the ERA down, his skills, 5.6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and a 36% GB%, do not exactly inspire confidence, and he is not at an age, he turns 28 years of age this summer, where you can expect significant growth.
Whoever throws best this spring will win the job, but for fantasy purposes, Niese is the only one worth monitoring.
Philadelphia Phillies:
The defending NL champions do not have many spring training battles. The only real competition is for the #5 starter spot where Kyle Kendrick and Jose Contreras figure to be the main players.
Kendrick spent most of last year in Triple-A, where again he showed he is not a power pitcher, 3.9 K/9 in 143 innings. When he is limiting the walks and keeping the ball down, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47% GB% in 2007, he can be effective, 3.87 ERA, but when he gets a little wild and can’t keep the ball down, 3.3 BB/9 and a 44% GB% in 2008, it can get ugly real fast, 5.49 ERA.
Despite his surface numbers, 6-13 with a 4.92 ERA, Contreras showed that there are some good skills left in his 38 year-old arm, 7.3 K/9 and a 47% GB%. He didn’t help himself with the walks, 3.6 BB/9, but bad luck, .307 BHIP% and a 67% Strand rate also played a part.
Kendrick is too risky to use in fantasy league, but if Contreras wins the job, he could be worth using in NL-only leagues.
Will it be Brad Lidge or Ryan Madson as the Phillies closer this year?
Last year was a disaster for Lidge, 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves, and he is battling back from elbow and knee injuries. He is just 33 years of age and if the elbow caused him to leave the ball up in the zone, 2008/2009 GB%’s 46%/39%, and affected his control, 4.5/5.2, which is deadly in his home stadium, 11 home runs allowed last year vs. just 2 in 2008, then if healthy, there is no reason to believe that he cannot return to his 2008 form.
While Madson has good skills, 9.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and a 46% GB%, he may just be one of those guys who cannot handle the pressure of being a closer, 19 blown saves in 34 career chances.
If Lidge is healthy expect him to reclaim the closer job.
Washington Nationals:
Two of the bigger battles in the Nats camp will be the closer and the 5th spot in the rotation.
The Nationals choose not to resign last year’s closer Mike MacDougal, instead they brought in former Pirate Matt Capps to be the closer with a challenge coming from another off-season addition Brian Bruney.
While Capps’ skills would be good for a middle reliever, 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 40% GB%, they are just ok for a closer. However, .354 BHIP% shows that he was not as bad as his 5.80 would indicate.
Bruney has more power than Capps, 2008/2009 K/9’s 8.7/8.3, but as a fly ball pitcher, 44%/52%, he is going to have to rein in the walks, 4.2/5.3, to succeed as a closer.
Expect Capps to win the job, but he will be in the bottom rung of major league closers.
Craig Stammen and JD Martin should battle for the 5th spot in the Nats rotation.
Stammen has a mundane skill set, 4.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 47% GB%, that even when things go his way, which they didn’t last year, 5.11 ERA in 19 starts, his upside is very limited.
Martin skills were worse than Stammen’s last year, 4.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 37% GB%, but he showed some very intriguing skills in Triple-A last year, 6.4 K/9 and a 1.0 BB/9 in 88 innings, which gives him some hope.
Whoever throws better in Spring Training will likely win the job, but if you were going to track one, it should be Martin, although his upside is not high.
Scott Olsen: Manager Jim Riggleman said that Olsen should be in the Nationals rotation this year. Olsen has battled injuries and his skills have noticeably declined since his breakout 2006 season, 2006/2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 8.3/6.8/5.0/6.0 and BB/9’s 3.7/4.3/3.1/3.6. He is just 26 years of age so the skills could return, but the further we move away from the 2006 season, the less likely they will return.
Jeremy Sowers: Sowers, who has been suffering from shoulder inflammation, threw a pain-free session yesterday as he readies himself to compete for a spot in the Indians rotation. He has never been able to induce ground balls like he did during his successful 2006 season, 2006/2007/2008/2009 GB%’s 48%/40%/42%/38%. That is not a good thing when you have no power and poor control, 3.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 last year. Even if he wins a spot in the Indians rotation, he is someone to avoid.
Scott Richmond: Richmond is still experiencing discomfort in his shoulder and has no timetable for a return, which will seriously jeopardize his chance to compete for a spot in the Blue Jays rotation. His 7.6 K/9 last year was impressive, but the deadly combination of poor control 3.8 BB/9, and a 45% FB% led to 27 home runs allowed and a 5.52 ERA in 138.2 innings. His future, if any in the major leagues, most likely lies in the bullpen.
Brian Bergesen: Bergesen seems to be recovering from the bizarre injury of straining his shoulder during a commercial shoot in December, and should be ready to go at full strength next week. In his rookie season last year, he looked good, 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 123.1 innings. A .260 BHIP% helped and while one can succeed with his soft skill set, 4.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 50% GB%, his upside will be limited unless he can find a way to miss more bats. However nothing in his minor league performance, 4.4 K/9 in 148 Double-A innings two seasons ago, suggests that it is coming anytime soon.
Ryan Raburn: With no position open to Raburn for full-time duty, he is expected to see time in both the outfield and infield in order to get his bat into the lineup, 16 home runs in just 261 AB. His splits last year, RHP/LHP, AB’s 128/133 and HR’s 4/12, shows that he clearly belongs in the lineup against southpaws. His best value is in daily transaction, AL-only leagues where you can get him in your lineup when the Tigers are facing a left-hander.
Joey Devine: There is a chance that Devine, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, could be ready by opening day. When he last pitched in 2008, Devine showed closer-worthy skills, 9.7 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9, but he will probably need time to shake off the rust and is now blocked by Andrew Bailey from closing for the A’s. If Devine is going to do any damage this year, it will be in a set-up role.
Brad Wilkerson: The Phillies signed Wilkerson to a minor-league contract where at best he would make the team as a bench player. Injuries have robbed him of an intriguing skill set of power and outstanding plate patience. Even if he sticks with the Phillies, he showed little power, 4 home runs in 264 AB, during his last go around in the majors two years ago. You can safely ignore him in all formats.
Octavio Dotel: The Pirates signed the 36 year-old Dotel to be their closer this year. He still has the gas to get the job done, 10.8 K/9, but his poor control, 5.2 BB/9, and high 51% FB%, could lead to some walk-off home runs.
Jake Westbrook: Westbrook, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, appears on track to be ready to return to the Indians rotation by opening day. It is hard to know what to expect from the 32 year-old Westbrook, as it has been 3 years since he has thrown significant innings. At that time, his control and GB% were going in the wrong direction, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s 2.4/2.3/3.4 and GB%’s 62%/61%/54%, two skills that he absolutely needs given his lack of firepower, K/9’s 4.6/4.8/5.5.
Carlos Guillen: With the addition of Johnny Damon, it looks like Guillen will be relegated to DH duties for the Tigers. At this point in his career, the 34 year-old’s power is just league average, 10 home runs and 29 doubles in 420 AB last year, despite an increase in his FB%, 2008/2009 FB%’s 35%/44%. The power drop combined with declining contact skills, 2007/2008/2009 Ct%’s 83%/84%/80%, are signs that Guillen has seen his best days and we are witnessing the classic mid-30’s decline.
Ed Cagle
Feb 23, 10 at 09:02 PM
Good Job always enjoy your site