2010 Diamond Challenge Preview
Okay, this is the second of two posts today. If you want to check out how I fared last season, you can find a recap in my earlier post today.
This post is the first dedicated to analyzing the options at each position and why I chose or didn’t choose specific players. Unlike last year, I will give my projected roster at the outset; this should give readers a better grasp of my overall strategy and will make the posts about individual positions more useful.
So, without further ado, my first attempt at a DC roster:
C – Lou Marson/Carlos Santana, Matt Wieters
1B – Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard
2B – Rickie Weeks, Gordon Beckham, Chase Utley
3B – Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright
SS – Alcides Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Reyes
OF – Nelson Cruz, Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Nolan Reimold, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury
SP – Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Brett Anderson, Ricky Nolasco, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Tommy Hanson, Francisco Liriano
RP – Billy Wagner, Joakim Soria, Rafael Soriano, Jonathan Broxton
*I’ll talk about my overall strategy, including starters and week 1 lineup, in my final DC preview post, after I have analyzed all positions.
Analyzing the Outfield
The must haves
Nelson Cruz (TEX) 930 - Cruz is currently our 10th ranked roto outfielder, and no one else in the top 10 can be had at Cruz’s salary. He has legitimate power and speed, hitting 33 HR and stealing 20 bases in just 462 at bats. Imagine those numbers over 550 at bats, which he should reach this season easily. He is a batting average risk (.260 last year), but he had an unlucky singles average of .225, which is about 20 points below both Cruz’s previous three year average and the MLB average. So, if anything, we should see an uptick in average.
Justin Upton (ARZ) 950 - Upton is our 8th ranked OF. Like Cruz he is a power/speed combination player, with nowhere to but up at the ripe age of 22. It’s doubtful he’ll hit .300 again (.291 singles average in ’09, .41 career EYE), but he is a pure hitter with serious power and upside.
Bounce Back Players
Josh Hamilton (TEX) 970 and Grady Sizemore (CLE) 1260 - Both of these players have salaries much lower than last season due to poor seasons both at the plate and in the health department. Fantistics expects both players to bounce back. They are entering the season at their peak ages (Hamilton – 28, Sizemore - 27) and even when they weren’t on the DL, injuries affected their respective results at the plate. In this game you have to take some risks, and there is just too much potential here at modest salaries to pass.
Young and Cheap
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) 680 and Nolan Reimold (BAL) 610 - Both of these players are young, talented and cheap. Those three attributes have been the downfall of many DC players in past years, but both Gonzalez and Reimold experienced legitimate success, albeit not over full seasons, at the major league level last year, reducing their risk factor. Both have power and a little speed, making them a very light, but respectable version of the Upton/Cruz combo.
I also am taking Andre Ethier (LAD) 1210, with the feeling that he has nowhere to go but up. He was unlucky in the batting average department last season, and he has some power growth as his FB% jumped from 32% to 41.5% last season and his 3 year marks in ISO (.168/.206/.237) and HR/FB% (9.4/14.1/15.4) could continue to rise for a player who is 27 YO.
My two specialty subs are Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) 1260 and Jay Bruce (CIN) 720 who will provide power and speed respectively off of my taxi squad. Ellsbury is the same price as Sizemore so I can easily sub him in when I’m in need of BA/SB. Bruce is a low priced guy who I feel could hit 40 HR (see Tuesday’s Preseason Prep Blog).
So, how do I feel about my OF? I see a lot of value picks who can hit for power and still provide speed. I don’t feel that anyone in my OF is at their full salary, with the exception of maybe Ellsbury. However, I will need to make up some batting average elsewhere in my lineup as most of these hitters are in the .275 - .285 range. According to the Fantistics projections, I have managed to roster 5 of the top 10 OF without breaking the bank.
Other Options
You can’t go wrong with Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp, but I was satisfied with my OF value picks and decided to take high salary guys elsewhere (Pujols, Utley).
Andrew McCutcheon is an interesting guy at 790, but I decided to go with Gonzalez and Reimold who, in my opinion, are more well rounded and no more risky than McCutcheon for a cheaper price.
As far as cheap speed, there is a lot available in the likes of Drew Stubbs 530, Michael Brantley 450 and Julio Borbon 550. Since I decided to avoid a high priced OF, I was able to go a little more expensive with my low priced OF in an attempt to get more all around players with more experience than the three speedsters I just mentioned.
Keep an eye on rookies Jason Heyward (ATL) 400 and Desmond Jennings (TB) 400. If either of these guys breaks camp with a starting spot, particularly Heyward, you may be forced to roster them due to their low salary and high skill level. Rookies of these caliber at the game’s lowest salary are worth the risk.
Bust
Manny Ramirez (LAD) 1080 - At first glance, Manny is very tempting at this salary, but it is a sucker play. Manny is 37 YO and appears to be struggling without the use of PED’s. In two of the past three seasons, he has posted HR/FB% of 12.3 and 16.7, which are well below his career mark of 21.5. Manny’s power is in decline, and there are cheaper options that will provide you with much more upside.
*Please feel free to use the comment section below to ask about any players I failed to mention or if you have any thoughts/want me to expand on the players I did mention.
Fantistics Player Projections Software supports more league formats than any other program in existence (Over 75 scoring options). Fanball's Diamond Challenge is just one of the many scoring formats supported. You can see the Diamond Challenge player Salaries in our software, and compare those salaries to our Valuations to find relative value as you compile your ultimate CDM roster.
Brian Schmidt
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
With the news of Wash possibly hitting Cruz 7th (and obviously having something against him), are you as high on him still? No love for Blanks at 490?
http://twitter.com/AXISROTO
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Very cagey!! No mention whatsoever of Lind, Choo, or Adam Jones who all will surely end up on your roster??
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Brian - At this point in Spring Training, I try not to put too much stock into batting order and other news of that sort. In terms of Cruz specifically, the 7th in the spot in the lineup would certainly affect his RS and RBI opportunities, but I don't believe it would be the death of him as a CDM play. He's just got too much power, and that spot might actually provide him with more SB opportunities. I've learned in this game, sometimes it's better to take talent and hope things such as batting order work themselves out (within reason of course).
I mentioned a few possible cheap plays, but I failed to mention any cheap power plays. And Brian, you're right, Blanks is the play if you are searching for cheap power. My strategy, though, was to go a little cheaper with my top OF, which allowed me to spend a little more on my bottom two (Reimold and Gonzalez) who are more complete fantasy players in my opinion. But, for the record, I don't think we have anyone at Blanks' salary or below (490) whose projected to hit nearly as many HR (28) as Blanks is.
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
AXISROTO - Adam Lind is a player who I like, but I decided to go Hamilton/Ethier instead. I feel Hamilton is going to put up very similar numbers to Lind and at a cheaper salary. Ethier on the other hand might have a little more power than Lind but a lower batting average. However, I felt he was the safer pick and not for that much more. Ethier, as I mentioned, has been trending upward for three full seasons, and I'll take that over one really good season. Still, I can't argue against Lind being a bad play; I simply chose (at this moment at least) to go another route.
Adam Jones - I don't see Jones breaking out and having a season to put him in with the Upton, Cruz, Hamilton mode. And if he's not breaking out, there's a very good chance he fails to or barely outperforms Reimold and Gonzalez. There seems to be a misconception about Jones' speed in some parts. In two seasons of 500+ PA he has stolen just a combined 20 bases. Who on my current roster would you take off in order to put Jones in?
Shin-Soo Choo - Out of the three outfielders you mentioned Choo is the most likely to squeak his way onto my roster. If come opening day there are still concerns over Cruz's spot in the lineup/Washington's apparent distaste for him, I could see myself making a switch for Choo. As noted in the projection notes, Choo could see some of his extra base hits go for homers, which would make him a threat to approach 30 HR. Also, he has better patience and a better spot in the lineup than Cruz, which in some people's eyes (I admit I'm starting to lean this way as well) make him a better DC play than Cruz.
Jim Tokar
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
What are your thoughts on Colby Rasmus? I consider him on the same plain as as a Nolan Reimold.
grinsch63
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
This must be the last place team you are putting down on paper. Hamilton over Quentin as a bounce back player for 2010? I think you kept that one in your back pocket. I think most of us serious players have targeted those you have either in your lineup or mentioned but I don't think you gave Borbon justice - the gap is just too great between Ellsbury and Borbon to pass up. You are weak in a couple of other areas that you could use the money. Also, Sizemore? I don't disagree with you but that guy will be the "the guy that can beat you" label for every pitcher he faces which I also think was a factor last year. Also, aren't you carrying too many OF's, what is the logic in carrying 9 in this year talent pool? Care to comment?
Jimbo
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
I'm confused...that whole team costs more than $30M, yes?
What would your starting 28 be out of that group?
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Jim - Rasmus is certainly a talent, but Fantistics and myself still have him pegged as a year or two away from a breakout season due to the .38 EYE in and .160/.219/.244 line against left handed pitching that Rasmus posted last season. Reimold is closer to a breakout and the safer pick for this season.
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Grinsch - I already took a few lumps at OF in terms of BA and felt that Hamilton will hit 15 points or so higher while beating Quentin in every category with the exception of a few HR.
I have no qualms with Borbon over Ellsbury. I plan on using Ellsbury as a super sub of sorts when I'm short on BA and steals, and as a result I wanted a "sure thing" in that type of player. Ellsbury is the one player in my OF who may not justify his salary this season, but sometimes you need some guys who do what they do so to speak.
My feeling on Sizemore: A lot of people felt he was a play last season at about 300k more. In my mind what has changed to make him not a play at 300k cheaper just a year later. Sometimes we put too much stock into one season, and I'm willing to give Sizemore a pass on last season. We'll see if it comes back to burn me.
In terms of taking 9 OF: I thought there was the most value at this position this year, and I still managed to have a backup at every position other than C. Also, I did take a few risks so if one doesn't pan out I still have good lineup flexibility.
Michael
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Michael,
My problem with your team started right at the beginning at the C position. To ignore Joe Mauer/1310 and Victor Martinez/1000 might be right but it is taking a great chance. The former is the 2nd best hitter in the game while the latter bats 3rd in a high octane offense and both also hardly sit down as they DH when they don't catch.
I do understand Santana because he looks very special. Problem is he will be in the minors for a few months and Marsden can't carry his jockstrap.
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Jimbo-
Possible OD lineup:
C - Marson (280), Wieters (650)
1B - Votto (1100), Pujols (1890)
2B - Weeks (630), (Beckham 710)
3B - Longoria (1390), Zimmerman (1260)
SS - Escobar (400), Cabrera (740)
OF - Cruz (930), Reimold (610), Upton (950), Hamilton (970), (Gonzalez 680), Ethier (1210)
DH - Utley (1530), Wright (1420)
SP - Kershaw (960), Verlander (1200), Greinke (1310), Johnson (1030), Halladay (1460), Lincecum (1510)
RP - Wagner (1160), Soria (1310), Soriano (1240)
SW - Haren (1440)
I'll give more thoughts on how I plan on setting my lineup throughout the season in the last post of the preview.
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Michael-
I'll go over that when I do the catcher preview, which based on the obvious, and deserved, questions surrounding my choices, I'll make the next position I preview.
Jim Tokar
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
thanks for your insight!
Ted French
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Jim..
Not a mention or a comment on Granderson!!! Runs, HR's, SB's, and the new Yankee stadium...gone, gone, gone!!!!
andrew
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
no mention of rajai, especially w/ Henderson in camp is surprising. Rather play Davis over Ells and thus be able to afford Mauer and Hanley. Ells is your speed guy and seems rather alot tom pay for his 65-70. Rather start Matsui or Kubel over Ethier and think Hamilton will be injured rather early on. No great home/road weekly splits for Texas.
Mike Leone
Feb 26, 10 at 02:21 PM
Andrew - Davis over Ells won't give the cap room to afford Mauer and Hanley. I'm paying the extra bit for Ells because I want my speed specialist to be a safe choice, and I think Ells is as safe as they come. With that said, if I find I need some extra cap room, I could easily justify starting with Davis or even Nyjer Morgan rather than Ellsbury.