David Ortiz (DH – Red Sox)
After months of debating whether or not David Ortiz was cooked, he has very quietly put together 4 consecutive very strong months to finish the season. If you remove Big Papi’s remarkably futile April and May, he actually posted a line of .265 / .407 / .556 in ‘09 (good for a .963 OPS). My lone concern is that even during these months that were reminiscent of the former Big Papi, his EYE was a mere 0.60 (far below his previous seasons). In all honesty, I am surprised that Ortiz was able to successfully turn his season around in ’09. He may be extremely reliant on Fenway Park now to produce numbers (.885 OPS at home; .703 on the road), but production is production regardless of from where it comes. When valuing Ortiz next year, I wouldn’t completely remove his horrible first months from my memory, but the majority of my focus would be on the .963 that he posted during the final 4 months of the season. Turns out he still has some life in that bat after all.
Edwin Jackson (SP – Tigers)
Edwin Jackson has completely gone into the tank in the 2nd half of the ’09 season. Some of this is attributable to a normalization in his luck factors (1st half: 249 BABIP; 2nd half .309 BABIP). The rest of the drop-off is attributable to a plain and simple decline in peripherals (1st half: 7.21 K/9, 2.60 BB/9; 2nd half: 6.10 K/9, 3.31 BB/9). Taking a look at Jackson’s overall season peripherals (6.72 K/9, 2.89 BB/9), we see a slightly above average starting pitcher, which is not reflected in his 3.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Jackson’s 1st half was so greatly aided by luck that his overall season numbers are still on the lucky side of things (.279 BABIP, 78.3% strand rate, 9.4% HR/FB rate). Jackson’s torrid 1st half had caused many to claim that his long awaited arrival had finally happened at age 25; however, a closer look at the numbers indicates that while he did show very significant improvements across the board, he was really nothing more than slightly above average in ’09 (4.19 FIP).
Jake Peavy (SP – White Sox)
While Jake Peavy was brilliant again in his 3rd start for the White Sox, it is imperative to remember that he will simply not hold the same value next year as he has in years past. Peavy has been an elite starting pitcher for the last 6 years now, and still at age 28 it will be difficult for owners to disassociate Peavy from the gaudy numbers of which we are accustomed. However, even just a cursory glance at his career road statistics tell you all that you need to know heading into next season (3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Now, captured within this data are Peavy’s 21 and 22 year old seasons where he threw 291 innings that were significantly inferior to his last 6 seasons; but, since he has tossed 1354 innings, these 291 innings do not heavily influence the data. Also, consider the fact that the move from the NL to the AL in general will add some points to both his ERA and WHIP, and the fact that his new home ballpark is not pitcher-friendly. A quick and dirty lesson is to look at Javier Vazquez’s numbers while in Chicago. Vazquez had one of the top K/BB ratios in the league (which Peavy should also have), but had just a 4.42 ERA over 3 seasons to show for all the great pitching. With all considerations factored in, a 3.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP start to look more like a reasonable expectation for Peavy in 2010. He will be chosen far too early in drafts next season.
Michael Aubrey (1B – Orioles)
Michael Aubrey is making the most of his opportunity in Baltimore by smacking 2 more homers last night and upping his slash stats to .293 / .326 / .524 in 82 at bats this year. Aubrey was a former 1st round pick who has had his career derailed by injuries (has played in just 441 games in 7 minor league seasons). At age 27, Aubrey should theoretically be on the precipice of his peak seasons, but all the injuries have stunted his development. This means that I would expect him to peak a little later than a typical player. He was able to stay healthy this season, but his .290 / .323 / .436 line is not all that impressive from the 1B position. But, as I already stated, I would expect Aubrey to be able to show significant improvement in his game if can stay healthy over these next few years, since he is behind on a typical age/performance curve. Aubrey does not have big power for a 1st baseman, but he can hit for a very solid average (think John Olerud, Mark Grace, etc.). I would expect Aubrey to have a very good shot at earning the starting 1st base duties in 2010, which puts him firmly on my early AL-only league sleepers list.
Delmon Young (OF – Twins)
It is nearly impossible to find even a single encouraging statistic concerning Delmon Young this season, but I may have found one. After sporting a GB rate that would make the slappiest of slap hitters proud in ’08 (55.2%), Delmon has reduced this number down to 50.0% in ’09. This number is still very high for what should be a developing power hitter, but it is progress nonetheless. The reduced GB have naturally resulted in more FB, and also on a positive note, his HR/FB rate has increased by 1.8% from last year. Once again, this should be considered to be a minor improvement. I suppose that the most encouraging piece of news I can offer up concerning Delmon Young is just to remind everyone of the stud prospect that he was (is?). It is sometimes easy to forget that he posted a line of .336 / .386 / .582 with 20 HR and 25 SB as a 19 year old in 84 games at Double-A! We all know that the potential is in there somewhere, and most of the time superior talent wins out in the end. Go ahead can scoop him up in the very back-end of your draft next year.
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