Matt Maloney (SP – Reds)
After being sent down due to a procedural move last week, Matt Maloney returned to the bigs last night and pitched fairly well against the Rockies. He only struck out 2 in his 5 IP, but he did not issue a walk and allowed just 1 ER. In 5 major league starts on the season, Maloney has a 6.52 K/9 and a 2.17 BB/9. These numbers are pretty darn impressive, but there is one caveat. Maloney currently has a 56.3% FB rate, and a 20.0% HR/FB rate to go along with it. I know that he has only tossed 29 innings, which leaves us susceptible to small sample sizes; however, this FB rate makes Scott Baker look like he is Derek Lowe. Also, his GB/AO ratio in Triple-A this year was 0.92, which makes this extreme FB rate look less like aberration. Maloney looked great all season in Triple-A this year (7.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9), and has shown these strong ratios in the majors thus far as well. Nevertheless, his FB tendencies will leave him susceptible to the occasional home run bonanza, especially when pitching in his home park.
Chris Volstad (SP – Marlins)
Chris Volstad was recalled after a brief stint in the minors, and appears to be slated to occupy a spot in the bullpen for the final month of the season. Volstad showed a mediocre K/9 (6.10) and BB/9 (3.08) combined with a tremendous GB rate (49.7%). Encouragingly, Volstad’s K/9 increased by .55 and his BB/9 decreased by .76 from last season. I am optimistic regarding Volstad in the 2010 season largely due to one number, and that is his HR/FB of 17.1%. This number was the sole reason for his ERA being above 5.00 in ’09. His HR/FB rate was 3.9% in the 88 innings he threw in ’08, so maybe this was lady luck’s way at correcting last year’s aberration. With a normal FB/HR rate around 10-12%, I would expect Volstad to post an ERA around 4.00 in 2010.
Jay Bruce (OF – Reds)
The Reds seemed to have a desire to leave Jay Bruce in the minors this season, so on Tuesday they announced that Bruce would remain in Triple-A until the minor league playoffs have concluded. People may look at Bruce’s .207 / .283 / .441 and conclude that he has taken a step backwards in ’09 – this would be incorrect. Bruce actually increased his BB rate by 1.6% and decreased what he most needed to improve upon (his K rate) by 5.5% this year. The improvement in his K rate is very significant and is a hugely positive sign moving forward into 2010. Also consider that Bruce’s BABIP was severely unlucky at .202, and that he hit 18 HR in just 83 games played. 2010 will mark the greatest value that Bruce will ever be had in a fantasy baseball draft, as he could easily hit 40 HR.
Roy Oswalt (SP – Astros)
Roy Oswalt is expected to make his next start after visiting the doctor with flu-like symptoms. In typical Oswalt fashion, he has turned it on in the 2nd half of the season by reducing his BB/9 down to a very tidy 1.47. For his career, Oswalt has an ERA that is .45 points lower and a WHIP that is .12 points lower in the 2nd half than the 1st. Oswalt has seen his dominance decrease from where it was from ’01-’04 (K/9 of 9.15, 8.03, 7.63, 7.82), but the decline has been slight enough that he has remained a great pitcher (’05-’09 K/9 of 6.85, 6.77, 6.54, 7.12, 6.71). Additionally, the slight drop in his K rate has coincided with a slight drop in his BB rate over the years, which has helped to cushion the blow of aging. At age 32, Oswalt has not seen the precipitous drop that we see from many pitchers who have logged heavy innings early in their career, and I would not expect to see it happen in 2010 either. In ’09, Oswalt’s velocity has returned to where it was when he first entered the league (93.1 MPH), which is a great sign that he still has plenty of life left in that arm.
Madison Bumgarner (SP – Giants)
Madison Bumgarner was called upon to make his major league debut on Tuesday night while filling in for Tim Lincecum. Bumgarner the #2 pitching prospect in baseball behind Stephen Strasburg, and is indeed a rare talent. Before we get too carried away, it is important to remember that he just turned 20 years old last month. Bumgarner has looked fantastic in his 2 years of minor league ball thus far with a 1.65 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9. Showing that he is in fact human, his K/9 rate slipped down to 5.8 in Double-A this year. Although he was technically filling in for Lincecum last night, the Giants may consider having him stick around for their playoff push, seeing as he is probably already one of their 5 best starting options. His role in ’09 is unclear at this point, but anytime a prospect of this caliber lands in the big leagues, he is immediately worthy of consideration in fantasy leagues.
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