Clayton Kershaw (SP—Dodgers) Stupid injuries are the most frustrating for fantasy owners. Like the guy who stubs his toe on the dugout step and winds up missing a week of games. Or perhaps the player that cuts his index finger shaving and requires stitches that keep him from pitching the entire month. It’s these kinds of injuries that make fantasy owners want to bang their heads against the keyboard. Add Clayton Kershaw to the list of silly mishaps as he injured his right shoulder on Monday running into the outfield wall during batting practice. Kershaw will miss his start on Friday and hopefully will not be out any longer than that. Kershaw has matured greatly over the past year. He has given up more than 3 runs in a game only one time since May 17th and since the All-Star break he has an ERA of 2.34 with opponents batting .199 against him. He leads the league allowing the fewest hits per 9 innings at 6.3 and has averaged over 9 strikeout per 9 innings. Next year Kershaw will be 22 and will a little more maturation, he has a huge ceiling and should be a prime target for owners on draft day next year as he may be undervalued.
Chris Carpenter (SP—Cardinals) Chris Carpenter continues to make his case for not only the Comeback Player of the Year Award but also for Cy Young. Carpenter tossed a 1 hit shutout, striking out 10 batters for his 16 win of the league on Monday. Carpenter has been as good as ever this year as he lowered his ERA to 2.16 and has also lowered his WHIP below 1.00 with Monday’s game. His K/BB ratio is an outstanding 4.25. He has kept opposing hitters off base all season where they have only been able to manage an OBP of .265 against him and to add the cherry on the sundae, he has only allowed 4 home runs in 166 innings. Look for continued success for the rest of the season as Carpenter will carry the Cardinals on the pitching side to the playoffs. More than likely, fantasy owners got Carpenter for a real bargain this year as he was a forgotten man coming into 2009 and a risk coming off of injuries. Forget that for 2010 as Carpenter has reestablished himself as an ace pitcher and will be a top of the line pick next season.
Chipper Jones (3B—Braves) Where in the world has Larry…uh…Chipper Jones been? It’s the same old story for Mr. Glass…uh…Jones as he sat out Sunday’s game with a strained oblique muscle and lower back strain. Fantasy owners come to expect this with Jones, but the aches and pains that keep him out of the lineup are usually offset by outstanding offensive output that more then makes up for those sick days. Not this year. True, he has been able to avoid the DL for this season but Jones is only hitting .229 over his last 30 games and has only been able to muster 6 extra base hits. For the season, Jones is setting new career lows for XBH% at 7.5% compared to a career XBH% of 10.1% . Jones’ OPS this year is still OK at .839 but it represents his lowest numbers since his rookie year in 1995 and is 100 points below his career OPS. Jones will be 38 next season and his value will slip as he will be considered a lower valued option at third base but with a potential for excellence. It’s a risky play for a fantasy owner drafting Jones and could wind up being a disappointing 2010 with Jones skills potentially on the decline.
JA Happ (SP—Phillies) JA Happ was scratched from his start on Monday with strained oblique and as a result may not pitch at all this week. It seems this season that Happ has more lives than a cat as he continues a season that defies reason. If you are one who keeps waiting for Happ’s luck to run out, then you are not alone because Happ’s peripherals do not support his 10-4 record and 2.77 ERA. With K/BB ratio of 2 to 1 and a BHIP of .254, Happ has been on a lucky streak that would make any Las Vegas gambler jealous. But perhaps most indicative of his lucky run is that Happ has a FIP of 4.42. This is what his expected ERA would be if it wasn’t for some strong defense behind him. Even his xERA of 3.26 indicates that he has been pitching over his head. Both of these stats raise huge warnings flags for next year as the planets will more than likely align themselves and Happ should see some serious regression.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS—Rockies) Troy Tulowitzki left the game in the 7th inning on Monday with a strained lower back after he hit a game tying single. This would be terrible news if this injury keeps Tulo sidelined for any length of time. The Rockies are in the heat of a playoff race and fantasy owners have been enjoying Tulo’s resurgence this season. After hitting the skids in 2008 hitting only 8 home runs and battling injuries, Tulo has regained his stroke this year. He already has 24 home runs equaling his output in his rookie year in 2007. It was touch and go for a while as Tulo looked a little more like the 2008 player rather than the 2007 player at the beginning of the season. But since June, Tulowitzki has hit .308 and belted 19 home runs with a .972 OPS which should make any fantasy owner smile form ear to ear. His XBH% at 43% has been outstanding and for a shortstop, it is even more of a benefit having that kind of output at a softer offensive position. Adding speed to his game with 17 stolen bases, Tulowitzki will be greatly missed if this back issue keeps him sidelined. Right now it sounds as though he will only miss a game, maybe two but should pay attention to his status as he has elevated his game this year and will be a solid target for owners in 2010.
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