Pablo Sandoval (3B – Giants)
Pablo Sandoval has experienced a true breakout in ’09, and in this season, he has adopted a much more patient approach at the plate. He has swung at 11.8% fewer pitches outside the strike zone, while also swinging at 5.9% more pitches inside the strike zone. This insane improvement in plate discipline has resulted in a 5.0% improvement in his walk rate. There were certainly questions concerning the free-swinging ways of Kung-Fu Panda entering the season, but he has shown more growth in this area than could have reasonably been expected. If Sandoval can keep his EYE trending in the right direction, he could conceivably even improve upon his .323 / .377 / .541 line from this year at the tender age of 22-23. There are rumblings about him being committed to dropping weight in the off-season, which would help to increase his longevity and make him less prone to injury. Lastly, he has only started 3 games behind the plate this season; so, unfortunately he will not carry catcher eligibility entering into the ’09 season. No worries though, as his .900+ OPS should play quite well at a corner infield spot anyhow.
Manny Parra (SP – Brewers)
Manny Parra is scheduled to return to the Brewers rotation on Friday against the Phillies after missing some time with neck spasms. Despite flashing his usual promising peripherals (7.11 K/9; 48.1% GB), Parra has been absolutely dismantled in ’09 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over 130 IP. Luck has certainly not done Parra any favors (.362 BABIP; 65.3% strand rate), but Parra’s pitching has not done him any favors either (4.90 BB/9). I would avoid using Parra at all costs against the Phillies on Friday, that is, unless you are in some unique circumstance where you need K’s and can afford to get smoked in ERA and WHIP. As far as 2010 is concerned, Parra should not be forgotten. Based purely on stuff and peripherals, he is capable of being a number 2 pitcher in this league. He will be 27 years old entering next season, so there is still time left for him to figure things out and blossom into what he has the potential to be. He will come extremely cheap on draft day next year.
J.A. Happ (SP – Phillies)
Despite being pulled from his last start after just 3 innings for precautionary reasons, J.A. Happ should be good to go on Thursday against the Brewers. I would get him back into your lineup immediately, as it appears that there is no end in sight to his charmed season. In fact, Happ actually had his luckiest month of the season in August as his 21/16 K/BB ratio was somehow good for a 1.67 ERA. It is certainly rare for pitchers to enjoy an entire season free from the laws of regression, but it does happen on occasion, and Happ is the poster-boy this season. His 6.19 K/9 and 3.07 BB/9 are extremely average (reflected in his 4.36 FIP), and do not come anywhere close to explaining his 2.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His .256 BABIP and 9.4 HR/FB are both very depressed, while his 86.5% strand rate is absolutely absurd. Happ should be fine to use for the remainder of the season, but I would avoid him like the plague next year, as he will likely be drafted many rounds ahead of where he should be taken.
Anibal Sanchez (SP – Marlins)
Anibal Sanchez shut out the Phillies last night by striking out 7 and walking 2 through 8 innings pitched. These are the type of feast or famine starts that we have come to expect from Sanchez in his young major league career. Poor control has kept Sanchez from making good on his spectacular minor league numbers (10.1 K/9; 2.9 BB/9), and these control problems have even been prevalent in his last 5 starts in which he has a 2.57 ERA. Over these last 28 innings, he has an 8.68 K/9 and a 4.18 BB/9. Tonight was an encouraging step in the right direction for Sanchez, but to this point he has given very little signal that he is on the verge of improving his command. That being said, he is worth keeping an eye on for the 2010 season based on his considerable upside.
Randy Wells (SP – Cubs)
After tricking hitters during the early part of the season, Randy Wells has performed more like I had anticipated in the months of August and September by possessing a 28/22 K/BB ratio over 52 innings during this stretch. Wells is going to finish the season with an ERA around 3.00 and a WHIP just under 1.30, but I would not expect a repeat performance in 2010. Wells’ .288 BABIP, 75.5% strand rate, and 8.1 HR/FB rate have all contributed to a misleading ERA. But, most of all, major league hitters evidently required an adjustment period when facing Wells. His K/9 from month-to-month looks as follows: 8.28 / 5.23 / 4.38 / 5.06 / 4.5. The month of May that Wells posted when facing hitters for the first time was so dominant that it has had a significant influence on his final numbers. A combination of regression and not being able to trick hitters for a full month will make Wells an overvalued pick in 2010.
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