Bronson Arroyo:
Consistency is a word you don’t typically associate with Bronson Arroyo, but he spun his twelfth consecutive quality start on Thursday, limiting the Pirates to just 1 ER over 7 innings. The extended hot streak has dropped his ERA from over 5 to just under 4, now sitting at 3.95 on the season. His K Rate has ticked up slightly in the 2nd half of the season, but the general trend is still downward and while it’s hard to say a streak of 12 consecutive quality starts is “luck-driven”, a lot of it has been. The only elite skill Arroyo’s flashed during the streak has been command (.19). He’s mostly benefited from good luck on balls in play as his BABIP in August was .226 and his BABIP coming into yesterday’s start in September was .241. Arroyo’s overall skill set is in decline and while the extended hot streak has been nice for fantasy owners, he should be downgraded significantly heading into next year’s draft season.
Ted Lilly:
The Cubs made their rotation for the weekend official on Thursday and fantasy owners with Ted Lilly in their lineup are going to be disappointed. The Cubs will have Carlos Zambrano pitch on Friday followed by Tom Gorzelanny on Saturday and Randy Wells on Sunday. Lilly will get one more start this season but it won’t be in Week 25, as he’ll start one of the double-header games for the Cubs next week against the Pirates and call it a season. A couple injuries paired with the Cubs lack of success this season has kept Lilly’s name out of Cy Young contention, but when he’s pitched he’s pitched at that type of level. His command has made the jump from “good” to “elite” as he’s averaging just 1.9 BB/9, while his K Rate has maintained at over 8 K/9. Along with the improved skill a lot of the improvements are due to good luck as Lilly’s BABIP against has been just .265 and his LOB% has jumped 3%. Even with the good luck the improvements in skill make Lilly a good bet for a mid 3’s ERA and WHIP in the mid 1.10’s next season paired with the good K Rate and W potential, he’s very quietly become a solid #2 fantasy starter.
Rafael Furcal:
I’m not sure what has gotten into Furcal but he’s looked like the guy we projected a big comeback season for here in September. With another 4 hits, including 2 2B’s and a HR on Thursday, Furcal is up to .371 here in September with an incredible 16.9% XBH Rate and a monstrous 22 runs. He’s even swiped 4 bases, almost doubling his total on the season, and returning to the usual 80% success rate we’ve seen from Furcal in his career. He absolutely should be in all lineups right now with how hot he is, unfortunately for our subscribers this late surge which we expected to be closer to the norm all season, is coming a little late.
Matt Kemp:
With a 3 run HR last night Kemp reached the 100 RBI plateau and now sits just 2 Runs shy of the 100 mark for Runs scored and 4 HR’s shy of 30. The HR’s will be tough to get in the final 10 days of the season, but Kemp’s going to post one of the more impressive fantasy seasons by an OF in a while, hitting over .300 scoring and driving in 100, knocking out 25+, and swiping 35 bases. He continues to get better each season this year showing improved plate patience and power, and at age 25 is just entering his prime. There’s a potential 40-40 season in Kemp’s near future, and if the Dodgers hadn’t messed around with him at the bottom of the lineup so much this year a 110-110 season would have been possible.
Luke Gregerson:
I was prepared to write a blurb detailing Gregerson’s tremendous ratio contributions down the stretch and give a recommendation to add Gregerson for those owners looking to protect ratio categories late in the season, then all of the sudden the Padres kept Gregerson in and he notched his first save of the season, altering the context of the blurb just a bit. Gregerson’s moved into the top setup role despite Mike Adams being back and throwing well again, thanks to a terrific 3 month run in terms of peripherals. Since the beginning of July Gregerson’s struck out 50 and walked just 9 in 37 1/3 innings. He posted similarly strong K Rates in the minor leagues (career 10.2 K/9) and with Heath Bell as a trade candidate in the off-season, Gregerson may have put his name at the top of the “closer of the future” list in San Diego. He’s a worthy speculative add in keeper formats and a valuable ratio protector down the stretch.
