Jarrod Washburn (SP – Tigers)
It is being reported that a bum knee is a potential reason for why Jarrod Washburn has a 6.81 ERA since becoming a member of the Tigers. I think I have a better idea as to what has caused the sudden poor performance – it is called regression. Back on August 10th, Drew identified Washburn’s .240 BABIP, .79% strand rate, and 7% HR/FB rate. As of this writing, he now has a .251 BABIP, 76.7% strand rate, and 9.7 HR/FB rate. The difference is his peripherals since the trade have been mostly marginal, as he has gone from a 5.34 K/9, and 2.23 BB/9 with the Mariners to a 4.37 K/9, and 2.68 BB/9 with the Tigers. So, while there has been some decline in his actual performance, the majority of his struggles can be attributed to a normalization in luck. Washburn will likely finish the season with some appetizing overall numbers, but do not be fooled on draft day next year. I would be shocked to see him post a season with an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.30 in 2010.
Brian Duensing (SP – Twins)
Brian Duensing turned in his 2nd consecutive thoroughly impressive performance on Wednesday night. Over his last 14 innings, he has allowed 1 ER, 8 hits, and sports a 15/3 K/BB ratio. It may be very tempting to add Duensing in your AL-only league at the moment, but I am advising that you resist. In 330 innings pitched at Triple-A, Duensing had a 4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9. The control that Duensing has shown in his recent starts is legitimate; the strike outs on the other hand, are not for real. Once teams are able to make adjustments from watching the video on his recent starts, Duensing should be in for some rough starts down the stretch. I view him as a weak option even in AL-only leagues.
Brian Matusz (SP – Orioles)
It is being reported that Brian Matusz will be only make 2-3 more starts this season. I find this move to be a bit disappointing, since Matusz seems to be figuring out this major league thing pretty quickly. Over his last 4 starts, Matusz has 9.78 K/9 and a 2.35 BB/9. His 5.28 ERA and 1.73 WHIP is to be ignored since they have been massively inflated by a .400 BABIP. With the way he has been throwing recently, there is still some value to be extracted from his next couple starts.
Daniel Hudson (SP – White Sox)
Daniel Hudson will reportedly be called up by the White Sox. To the surprise of many, Hudson has rocketed through 4 levels of minor league ball in his first professional season in ’09. His combined numbers in 147 IP at these different levels are staggering (2.32 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9. Although he has only thrown 24 innings at Triple-A this year, Hudson’s numbers in 56 innings at Double-A are what has piqued my interest (1.60 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9). Hudson figures to be a prime candidate to take the 5th starter role in September when the schedule calls for it, and is certainly worth consideration in AL-only leagues.
Wade Davis (SP – Rays)
The Rays called up top prospect Wade Davis yesterday and currently have him scheduled to get the starting nod on Sunday. Spanning 211 innings at the Triple-A level, Davis has a 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9. Soon to turn 24 years old, Davis has shown that he is ready for major league action. The rookie will have his work cut out for him by stepping directly into a playoff race in the month of September, but I do expect him to have some success. He is a worthwhile add in AL-only leagues, and perhaps more.
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