Jarrod Washburn (SP—Tigers) Well, for once it appears that Seattle may have made a good move, trading Jarrod Washburn to Detroit when he was at the height of his value. Since arriving in the Motor City, Washburn has pretty much stumbled, staggered and is on the verge of falling. He has a 1-3 record as a Tiger with a 7.33 ERA. He’s allowed 12 home runs in 43 innings while playing for Detroit compared to 11 home runs that he allowed through 133 innings as a Mariner. It certainly isn’t the way that Washburn wanted to go into the off season as a free agent. Fortunately for Washburn, assuming that the Tigers can hold off the surging Twins, Washburn has an opportunity to redeem himself and try to do his best “2004-Carlos-Beltran-as-an-Astro-in-the-playoffs” imitation. That would help his value. But from a fantasy standpoint, Washburn was playing with house money at the beginning of the year as he had a BHIP% of .245. So it was expected that there would be some regression to the mean. Going into next season, Washburn’s value will depend somewhat on the team he winds up with. That will be key as he is prone to the home run ball. But he is still a reasonable pitching option, but don’t over value him as he is not the same pitcher who started the season with the Mariners.
Bobby Abreu (OF—Angels) One of the biggest steals of the off season and best values was the Angels signing of Bobby Abreu. Abreu was dirt cheap for the output that he has given the Angels and the Angels would be prudent to offer him a little longer commitment as he has shown to be a dependable player. If they don’t, there should be plenty of takers for Abreu’s services next season as he has proven to be an OBP guy year in and year out. This season is no different as he has a .391 OBP and should finish his 3rd consecutive season with 100+ RBI, 20+ steals and 90+ runs scored. Granted that Abreu is not the home run hitter he used to be and his game has changed with is age. But he has adapted well and can still provide great fantasy value in a number of areas. He may not be a top tier outfielder but Abreu is certainly a terrific #3 outfielder and should come at a good value for 2010.
Johnny Damon (OF—Yankees) It will be interesting to see if the Yankee bring Johnny Damon back next year. It would seem that in light of his performance in 2009 that it would be in the best interest of both the Yankees and Damon to have him return in 2010. At 35, it would have been expected of Damon that there would have been a decline in skills and therefore fantasy owners may have been wary of drafting Damon this year. But he has been enjoying the new Yankee Stadium probably more than any other player as his splits would indicate. While his BA at home versus on the road is virtually the same (H-.286, A-.281), it’s in the power numbers where it gets interesting. Damon has a SLG and OBP of .441 and .348 away from Yankee Stadium; but at home those numbers increase to .550 and .385. Of his 24 home runs, 17 have come at home and there have been many times this season when Damon has hit a ball thinking he got under it, only to see it fly over the fence. Going into 2010, if Damon stays with the Yankees his fantasy worth should maintain a solid value but if he moves on, expect a drop in his production as the power numbers will more than likely slip.
Russell Branyan (3B—Mariners) It was a career year for Russell Branyan and it was also excellent timing as he will be a free agent this off season. Given the full-time third base job, Branyan produce career high 31 home runs before injuries put him on the sidelines at the end of the season. The home runs are impressive but Branyan was a completely different hitter the first half of the year compared to the second half. Wise fantasy owners were not seduced by Branyan’s fast start as he had an elevated BHIP% and a batting average that was higher than anything he had ever had in his career. As there was no historical credibility for Branyan’s success, savvy owners traded Branyan away when his value was highest. The first half he produce a slash line of .280/.382/.573 with 22 home runs. The second half Branyan slipped considerably producing a slash line of .193/.274/.414 with just 9 home runs. So what will potential suitors for Branyan’s services remember going into the 2010 season? The first half Branyan or the second half? Regardless of where he winds up, fantasy owners need to remember the second half player. While Branyan has always had good power, his first half performance was an anomaly and going into next season, Branyan should be avoided in mixed league drafts.
Adrian Beltre (3B—Mariners) Hopefully, Adrian Beltre has a very good accountant and a very good financial investor and has taken his money from the big contract he signed with the Mariners back in 2005 and invested wisely. Because going into this off season with free agency pending, Beltre is not going to get anything close to what he had previously signed for. The Mariners have to have been wondering where was that 2004 Adrian Beltre? You know, the one who hit 48 home runs (22 more than he has ever hit in any season), knocked in 121 RBI (the first and only time he has ever gotten more than 100 RBI) and batted .334 (65 points above his career average). And since Beltre has produced a career low in AB/HR of 60.3 in 2009, chances are no team will be breaking open the piggy bank for Beltre’s services. Fantasy should forget 2004 when looking at Beltre. Pretend that year didn’t happen because that has historically never been the Beltre that we have seen in any other year. Expect a further decline in Beltre’s fantasy worth as he may have some difficulty attaching himself to a team who is willing to pay him what he might think he is worth.
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