Carlos Quentin (OF – White Sox)
I think it is important to once again point out how truly unlucky Carlos Quentin has been this season. Quentin actually increased both his LD (+1.2%) and FB (+4.6%) rates this season, but somehow managed to see his BABIP sink by 55 points vs. last season. The most important thing to take away from Quentin’s ’09 season is his 8 HR in the month of April. There were pre-season rumblings that his wrist injury from ’08 could sap his power (wrist injuries are often detrimental to power). However, the 8 bombs that he smoked in the first month put all that fear mongering to bed in my mind. Quentin will be a screaming value in next year’s draft, as a dreadful ’09 (unlucky and injury filled) can very quickly (and unjustly) erase the .965 OPS that he posted in ’08 in the minds of many fantasy owners.
J.P. Howell (RP – Rays)
It has been announced that the Rays have decided to shut down J.P. Howell for the remainder of the season. There is no injury here, rather the Rays have been eliminated from playoff contention and have used Howell extensively over the last 2 years. Despite having season ending stats that look impressive (2.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.67 K/9), J.P. Howell has been bombed hard over the final two months (5.82 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 19/16 K/BB). I just want to dispel any notion that Howell struggled upon moving into the closer’s role. In save situations this year, Howell had a 2.77 ERA to go along with a dominating 13.2 K/9. Not too shabby. With dominating K numbers to go along with huge ground ball tendencies, Howell definitely has the stuff to be a bigtime closer in this league. He wore down toward the end of the year, and the HR’s started flying out of the ballpark. I like Howell as the clear front-runner to be the Rays closer next year, and hold large amounts of value.
Derek Holland (SP – Rangers)
On the surface, Derek Holland’s rookie season looks like a disaster (6.17 ERA, 1.50 WHIP); however, when you dig a little deeper, it is actually quite the opposite. Firstly, Holland has posted a K/9 of 7.16 and a BB/9 of 3.12, which are both solid peripherals from a starting pitcher. Secondly, he is just 22 years old. And, finally, he had pitched a grand total of 30 innings above Single-A prior to joining the big league club. Take a look at those peripherals again, I bet they are looking pretty appetizing now. For whatever reason, Holland has seemed to fly under the radar and not been included in discussions of the top young arms in the game. My feeling is that there is such a negative stigma attached to Rangers pitchers at this point, that everybody subconsciously ignores them – even the good ones. I foresee Holland making a big leap forward in 2010, and his name value won’t drive up his price on draft day (a la Tommy Hanson).
Doug Fister (SP – Mariners)
Doug Fister has been exactly as advertised since joining the big leagues with a mere 5.13 K/9, and an equally microscopic 2.66 BB/9. The result of these peripherals has been highly mediocre statistics (4.37 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). However, it is important to note that Fister was looking to be a very solid and reliable option before running into the offensive juggernauts known as the Rangers and Yankees in his last two starts. Before these starts he was looking mighty fine with a 2.84 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Sure, these statistics were aided by luck (.278 BABIP, 81.1% strand rate), but his 25/11 K/BB was nothing to sneeze at. Fister draws the A’s in his final start of the season, and it is very possible that he was dropped after back to back shellackings. He makes for a very sneaky spot start this week.
Miguel Olivo (C – Royals)
If you’ve been staring at Miguel Olivo in your free agent pool and calling for regression to sink him like a stone – it is time to change your tune. Now, don’t get me wrong, there has been a lot of luck to what Olivo has accomplished this season (.309 BABIP with a 14.8% LD rate; 22.3% HR/FB rate); however, with just over a week left in the season, Olivo can escape the heavy-hand of regression. Also, consider the fact that he is scorching right now with a .314 / .400 / .706 line in the month of September. Just for the fun of it, he has also decided to toss in 2 SB this month, which are pure gold out of the catcher position. It is pretty silly that he is owned in just 19% of Yahoo leagues at the moment. I recommend grabbing him and riding his hot bat to the finish line.
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