Luke Hochevar:
Anthony Perri highlighted Hochevar’s inability to bear down and get big outs and this was once again the case on Sunday. Hochevar was blasted for 7 ER’s on 9 hits and 2 BB’s in just 3 2/3 innings. The inability to pitch out of the stretch (.978 OPS with runners on, .694 OPS with bases empty) is masking some major improvements in Hochevar’s peripherals. Over the last 2+ months, Hochevar has posted a 68:17 K:BB Ratio in 69 2/3 innings, while posting a solid 47% GB Rate. Unfortunately an inability to keep the ball in the park, 12 HR’s in that span, and an inability to Strand base-runners (0.53 Strand Rate) has left Hochevar with an ERA approaching 7. The peripherals have improved, but the performance has continued to be horrendous. He can’t be trusted as we head down the final stretch but is someone to continue to monitor his development. Some modest improvements in his ability to get batters out with runners on would lead to a massive improvement in production.
Carlos Quentin:
The Carlos Quentin we’re getting this season just isn’t the same guy we saw last year. Quentin posted a 13.5% XBH Rate and .82 EYE on his way to a monstrous breakout campaign, but this season he’s battled the foot injury and been unable to muster the same power rates (9.3% XBH Rate) or plate patience (.59 EYE). He’s making contact at basically the same rates as last year and he’s actually hitting more LD’s and more FB’s this year than last season, he’s just lacking the type of pop he hit with last season. Some of this is just bad luck as evidenced by the .227 BABIP, but most of this is due to the foot injury which has prevented Quentin from turning on the ball as effectively as he did last season. The good news is most of Quentin’s value will be erased by the end of the season and 2008 will start to look like an aberration, making Quentin a likely undervalued candidate next season.
Rays Bullpen:
I posted two days ago under JP Howell that we had moved back to a closer-by-committee approach in Tampa Bay and after Sunday’s game it appears it may be a committee of “none”. The Rays bullpen continued its late season collapse allowing 4 runs in 5 batters with 1 out in the 9th inning, going from up 3-1 to down 5-3. Joe Maddon tried almost everyone using 5 pitchers in the inning and no one worked. The Rays bullpen has been a disaster in the 2nd half of the season as the ERA has jumped up 0.75 higher than the 1st half and blown saves have been a plenty. No one in the pen is pitching well enough to get the majority of save opportunities and at this point no reliever should be on rosters outside of AL Only formats.
Wade Davis:
Davis’ magnificent debut on Sunday was spoiled by the Rays pen. Davis went 7 strong innings allowing just 3 hits, 1 bb, and 1 ER, while striking out 9. Andrew quickly profiled Davis earlier in the week, but to re-emphasize Davis has been a top prospect in the Rays system for some time. His peripherals have deteriorated as he’s moved up in competition, but he’s always been very difficult to hit (just 8.0 H/9 in minor league career) and he’s always had success generating swings and misses (8.7 K/9). A GB Rate of just 37% combined with just average control rates (high 3’s BB/9 since moving up to AAA), may leave Davis susceptible to some rough outings against the elite offenses in the AL, but he held his own on Sunday against an average Detroit offense and is a viable speculative play in mixed leagues as team’s adjust to seeing him for the first time. In AL only formats, he should be picked up immediately if he wasn’t upon call-up.
Jeremy Guthrie:
Guthrie made it four outstanding outings in a row after shutting out the Rangers for 7 innings on Sunday. His command has been superb during the stretch as he’s walked just 4 in his last 27 innings, but his dominance still leaves much to be desired as he’s struck out just 15 during that stretch. Guthrie’s largely a fly-ball pitcher trying to survive in the tough hitters parks of the AL East with average stuff and good command. Up until this year he had been doing so thanks to some tremendous luck (Strand Rates in the 0.75 area and BHIPs in the mid .250’s and .260’s), but this season the luck has reverted and Guthrie’s been well below average. He’ll shoulder some of the innings load down the stretch as the O’s shut down some young starters and though he’s been hot of late, pitching in Yankee stadium next week looks like a recipe for disaster.
