Jeff Niemann:
The Rays bullpen is quietly sabotaging Jeff Niemann’s Rookie of the Year prospects. For the third consecutive game Niemann pitched tremendous and left in line for the win, this time shutting out the Yankees in Yankee Stadium for 7 innings before surrendering a leadoff 1B in the top of the 8th. The Rays bullpen not only let the inherited run cross home plate, but they surrendered another 3 runs blowing Niemann’s win for the 3rd consecutive game. Instead of sitting with a 15-5 record, a 3.57 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP, Niemann’s at just 12-5. While Niemann hasn’t had much good fortune in the W column of late a quick look at his peripherals would suggest he’s generally had good luck for the season with regards to his BHIP% and Strand Rate. Niemann’s BHIP% has hovered around .280, about 10% below league average, while his Strand Rate has been about 5% higher than league average despite just an average K Rate. The peripherals would suggest Niemann’s more of a low 4’s ERA, mid 1.30’s WHIP pitcher; however, his peripherals have actually improved each month since June as he’s posted a 61:15 K:BB ratio in his last 71 2/3 innings; good for a .85 K Rate and .20 BB Rate. Since the end of June he’s been an elite pitching option from a skill perspective and that of a #2 starter for fantasy purposes.
Alfredo Aceves:
I originally touched on Aceves as a nice W vulture back at the beginning of July and since then he’s picked up 5 more Wins while continuing to provide adequate ratios. Now with Joba Chamberlain’s innings limit needing a caddy, Aceves is an intriguing play on days Joba’s pitching. Aceves came in on Wednesday and tossed 3 nearly perfect innings walking just 1 and striking out 3. The Yankees didn’t provide any run support this time while Aceves was in so he couldn’t qualify for a Win, but with Joba slated for two starts in Week 25, Aceves is an intriguing play for those in H2H formats looking for wins.
Billy Wagner:
Back in March, I was in a startup keeper league with a friend who had never played fantasy baseball before so when I heard the name “Billy Wagner” announced in the 18th round, I shot him one of those looks like “do you know he’s rehabbing from tommy john?” and he immediately fired back with “Keeper league dude”, absolutely as cool as a cucumber. It killed me at the time as Wagner was not only rehabbing from Tommy John but on a team that had just committed long-term to Francisco Rodriguez as their closer. My friend’s team is long out of contention by now, but as I sit here and watch Billy Wagner light up the AL East, I can’t help but laugh. Wagner struck out two more in an inning on Wednesday and picked up his first win of the season as the Red Sox rallied late past the Orioles. Wagner’s now struck out 13 batters in 6 2/3 innings this year and walked just 2. With faint rumors swirling regarding Jonathan Papelbon’s availability this offseason Wagner could very well find himself in the closer’s role or a shared closer’s role with the Red Sox next year. All of the sudden my friend has gone from idiot to savant as Wagner has not only returned to form, but looked stronger than ever since coming back. AL Only keeper league owners should pounce if they haven’t already as at the very least he’ll have great ratio value as a setup man, and even mixed league owners need to keep an eye on Wagner’s situation in beantown.
Robinson Tejeda:
Tejeda made it two straight electric starts since spotting into the rotation for Gil Meche. Tejeda out-dueled Justin Verlander, shutting the Tigers out for 6 dominant innings. He allowed just 3 hits and most importantly for Tejeda, he walked just 2. Tejeda has always had good strikeout stuff and he struck out another 8 in those 6 innings giving him a ridiculous 11.6 K/9 rate this season. Stuff has never really been the issue for Tejeda as much as having any idea where the heck it’s going has been. For his career he’s posted a 5.1 BB/9 rate and coming into last night’s game had posted a 6.1 BB/9 largely out of the Royals pen. Tejeda has had spurts where he’s dazzled before but that command, or lack thereof, always comes back to bite him. The 11 1/3 shutout innings in two spot starts in which he’s allowed just 8 base-runners and struck out 14, will certainly get him noticed as a two start option next week, but I’d let someone else bite that bullet. Tejeda’s had a long track record of inconsistency and the likelihood of another gem is far outweighed by the likelihood of a disastrous outing. I’d play the percentages and stay away.
Curtis Granderson:
Granderson’s hit into a bit of tough luck this year, as evidenced by a .284 BABIP that is about 60 points below his expected BABIP, but most of the downturn in Granderson’s numbers aren’t luck driven. Granderson’s EYE has declined this season after peaking last year, thanks to his K Rate getting back to more normal levels for Curtis. But the big reason for the decline is the drop in Granderson’s power rates. After posting incredible XBH Rates of 13.7% and 11% the last two seasons, Granderson has dipped back down to just under 10%.With a higher FB Rate and better HR Rate this would appear to be a bit of an aberration, especially at age 28 when Granderson should be hitting his peak power years. Unfortunately there won’t be much discounted value for Granderson heading into next year’s draft as he’s regained his willingness to run, putting up another 20-20 season, after attempting just 16 steals last season.
