Chase Headley:
Chase Headley’s been a complete enigma to me early in his career. Despite posting an OBP of nearly .400 (.399) at the minor league level, he’s shown a middling walk rate at the major league level (9.6%) and a terrible EYE (.34). I’ve always like Headley so I’m usually looking for reasons to get excited. While we’re dealing with extremely small samples here Headley has shown a noticeable difference in his approach over the last 10 days. With 2 more walks last night, he’s now walked 6 times and struck out just 4 in his last 27 AB’s, going 12-27 with 7 Runs. I know its just 10 days and perhaps its another blip on the screen but for hitters who post OPS in the minors above .900 at the top levels, I look for a sign that a switch may have gone on. In the AL I think we might be seeing it with Billy Butler and perhaps in the NL we’ll see it happen over the last 8 weeks with Chase Headley. Out of contention teams in dynasty formats, I’d consider stashing or trading for Headley and seeing what happens here.
Derek Lowe:
Lowe extended his consecutive quality start streak to 6 with 6 1/3 innings of 2 ER ball on Thursday night in LA. He allowed 8 hits and walked 2, while striking out just 2. His peripherals really haven’t improved much during the stretch as he’s struck out 18 (.50) and walked 8 (.22) in the 36 1/3 innings. The command has been slightly better, but the majority of the streak is just reversion in Lowe’s strand rate. During the stretch he’s allowed 47 base-runners (1.29 WHIP, slightly improved from the slightly lower BB Rate), but just 12 of those base-runners have scored. No real improvement in skill here, just some improvement in luck.
Elijah Dukes:
It’s been an unusual season for Dukes as he was unable to build on his breakout at the end of the last season and was eventually demoted to AAA. His BB Rate and XBH Rate both declined, while the high K Rate remained. In addition he became utterly inefficient on the base-paths (20% success rate in 10 attempts). What we were left with was a batting average risk with just average power and tantalizing talent; a true disappointment. Since his return Dukes has been a bit more like last season, walking 3 times 22 AB’s, but the power still hasn’t returned. His HR on Thursday was his first extra base hit since returning so while he’s hit .273, he’s slugged just .409. Dukes has loads of talent and is actually positioned quite well in a deep Nats lineup (hitting behind high OBP guys like Zimmermann, Dunn, Willingham), but without the power returning to last season’s levels, he’s going to be a batting average drag that offers RBI potential at little else.
Chris Iannetta:
Though much of the peripherals suggest a turn-around is coming for Iannetta, he continues to struggle. Iannetta slumped through a .220/.282/.373 July in 59 AB’s that included an ugly .29 EYE and 6.8% XBH Rate. Early on here in August the struggles continue as he’s gone 3-12 with just 3 1B’s and a .33 EYE. Obviously a small sample here in August, but over the last month plus the peripherals are deteriorating, making the likelihood of a recovery in power and batting average less likely. Iannetta’s shown the capacity for a big streak as evidenced by his .276/.364/.603 May but the evaporating peripherals don’t suggest its coming any time soon. There is a bright note for Iannetta though. For the season Iannetta’s posted a .900+ OPS at home (vs. just .706 on the road) and the Rockies have the most unbalanced schedule of any team in the league with 33 of their remaining 54 games at home (61%). Now is an opportune time to make a play for all struggling Rockies hitters.
Pedro Martinez:
Pedro looked like he was ready for a return to the major leagues on Wednesday as he struck out 11 AAA Yankees in 6 innings. He did give up 3 ER’s on 5 Hits (including a HR), but he showed good command not walking a batter and obviously great stuff. The Philles GM Ruben Amaro Jr. came out on Thursday and said JA Happ would be staying in the rotation, which leaves either the option of Jamie Moyer being removed or going to a 6 man rotation. It’s unclear which the choice is currently, but the Phillies signed Martinez to be a starter and it appears he’ll get a shot next at returning to the rotation. I’m still skeptical of Martinez’s value pitching in a small home park in Philly, but the K Rate and command has upside for NL Only formats.
