Vicente Padilla:
Padilla found the transition to the NL to be a favorable one, even pitching in Colorado. Padilla allowed 6 hits and 1 BB in 5 innings of work, but limited the Rockies to just 2 ER’s. He struck out 4 and walked just 1 pounding the strike zone, throwing 55 of his 80 pitches for strikes. The Dodgers are currently auditioning two starters for one final rotation spot (Hiroki Kuroda will slide back into the rotation when he returns) and Padilla could certainly prove to be a viable spot starting candidate the rest of the way. In the AL Padilla was a back-end starter with unpredictable results but did post 3 pretty solid seasons in the NL a few years back. He’ll get two very favorable matchups with ARZ and SD at home next week and he’s someone I’m using as a two start pitcher in a number of areas.
Troy Tulowitzki:
I’m not sure the fantasy community is really putting Troy Tulowitzki’s 2009 season into the right context and it’s something I think long-term keeper league owners need to put into context when considering making moves for the future. At the end of May, Tulowitzki sat at .226/.316/.394. Since then he’s posted 3 straight months with an OPS above 1.000 and will enter next season as a clear-cut Top 5 SS and potentially only 2nd to Hanley Ramirez in terms of keeper value at the position. He’s made tremendous strides in his power rates with his extra base hit rate jumping to a phenomenal 12.5% and he’s shown an increased willingness to run with 16 SB’s. He’s on pace for a pretty quiet 30-20 season and because of the slow start I don’t think the fantasy community is thinking of him as a Top 30 keeper which he’s made a strong case for. Astute dynasty league owners should look to procure the 25 year old who is entering his prime.
Randy Wells:
With a 0.79 Strand Rate accompanied by a very average 0.61 K Rate, Randy Wells ERA was due for some upward movement as some good luck with HR’s had limited the effect on his Strand Rate. On Thursday we saw some of this as a 7.6% HR/FB Rate corrected a bit with 2 HR’s allowed in 6 1/3 innings. Though Wells allowed just 5 hits in 6 1/3 innings, he walked 4 which continued a trend of deteriorating peripherals. Wells K Rate has steadily declined (0.92, 0.58, 0.49, 0.57), while the BB Rate has jumped up here in August to .38. Wells peripherals were good enough to maintain an ERA in the mid-to-high 3’s with a WHIP in the 1.2’s, but as the peripherals continue to deteriorate those expected ERA and WHIP numbers will trend up. If that wasn’t enough reason to expect a significant decline to the end of the season, Wells has now surpassed his career high in innings by 15 after Thursday’s outing. With the Cubs falling further out of contention there’s a chance Wells gets shut down in September and even if he doesn’t there’s a significant likelihood his productivity declines and does so swiftly. Although the Cubs have a favorable closing schedule which Wells may be able to take advantage of, I’d expect an ERA and WHIP closer to the mid 4’s and high 1.3’s the rest of the way.
Casey McGehee:
It’s been a rather precipitous decline for McGehee’s batting average here in August as McGehee’s been mired in an extended 16-73 slump that’s included just 5 extra base hits. After a big burst in power in June (13 extra base hits in 76 ABs), McGehee’s power has returned to more expected levels (just 7.6% rate since). This has been part of the drag in the batting average as McGehee’s early season success was aided by the big power, but the majority has come from a drop in BHIP% which has fallen from .324 at the end of June down to the mid .260’s. The unusual thing about McGehee’s recent slump is the extremely strong EYE he’s posted amidst it (.92), which suggests he’s seeing the ball ok. Look for the luck to rebound some as the season wears on, but McGehee’s overall line still looks a bit elevated thanks to the strong start. Think more of a .275/.340/.445 type line the rest of the way.
Garrett Jones:
Jones knocked out his 15th HR of the season (in just 2 months, 189 ABs) winning the game for the Pirates in the bottom of the 8th inning. I suggested back in the middle of August a more normalized rate of .270/.355/.475 was likely for Jones from here on out and so far for the entire month of August he’s hit .270/.343/.506 trading off some patience for some more power. The power rates are still inflated by an abnormal distribution of HR’s to 2B’s (26.4 HR/FB%). I’d still expect the HR pace to slow the rest of the way, but Jones probably has another 5-7 in his bat the rest of the way, making for an extremely impressive power output in just half a season. He continues to be well worth owning in all formats as a solid source of power from the OF.
