Raul Ibanez:
Ibanez has really been scuffling at the plate and another 0-4 on Friday night dropped his August line to .225/.262/.350 with a horrid 2:13 BB:K Ratio in 40 AB’s. Ibanez’s HR pace all season has been unsustainable and while we’ve seen the pace slowly normalize, his HR/FB Rate remains elevated at over 21% (should be closer to 15-17% given his power rates). However, the issue with Ibanez isn’t as much bad luck on fly balls as it is an evaporating contact rate. His K Rate has progressed as such over the season: 12.8%, 19.3%, 28.5%, 25.8%, 32.5%. This comes after Ibanez has consistently posted K Rates in the mid-to-high teens throughout his career. The swing from your heels approach appears to have netted Ibanez some more extra base hits in place of some contact. But as the good fortune on fly balls continue to normalize, you’re going to see some significant regression in Ibanez’s batting average, likely into the low .280’s.
Mike Rivera:
Rivera got the start for the 2nd consecutive night after hitting 2 HR’s and driving in 5 on Thursday as the Brewers continue to search for more offense. He followed up the big effort on Thursday with 3 BB’s in 5 AB’s and a base-hit in a 1-2 effort. Rivera hasn’t gotten a lot of opportunity to see AB’s with Jason Kendall in front of him playing almost every day, but he’s shown some pop in his limited time, posting an OPS above .780 in all 4 seasons with Milwaukee (totaling just 286 ABs). He was the same way in the minors showing good power and adequate plate patience while posting a .795 OPS in nearly 3400 minor league AB’s. The Brewers are going to ride the hot hand a bit here, so NL Only players may want to look towards Rivera as a catching option and those in 2 catcher mixed leagues should continue to monitor the situation as well where I think Rivera will surpass Kendall as the starting catcher in Milwaukee.
Yovani Gallardo:
Spotted to a 8-0 lead after 1, Gallardo breezed through 6 innings allowing just 2 ER’s and 6 base-runners, while striking out 7. Gallardo’s command continues to leave room for improvement as he walked 3 in the 6 innings, but the dominating K Rate continues to limit the ERA damage. Gallardo’s been a bit fortunate this year with his Strand Rate (0.79) and his BHIP% (just .257), so there could be rougher waters ahead for Myvani, but he’ll continue to rely on the dominant K Rate to get him out of trouble. In re-draft leagues the declining command combined with a heavy workload this season (108 pitches per start, big innings jump from last year) and difficult closing schedule in September leaves Yovani as a bit of a sell high candidate for me.
Josh Johnson:
I’m not sure I’ve witnessed a more dominating outing with one pitch this year than the manhandling Josh Johnson put on the Rockies simply with his fastball. Johnson has the highest average fastball velocity of any starter in baseball and his velocity was ticking up a bit on Friday night as he sat at 96 and consistently touched 98-99. He carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning and ended up allowing just 1 hit, 3 BB’s, and 1 ER in 7 1/3 innings, while striking out 11 to improve his record to 12-2 on the season. There are a number of reasons to speak highly of Johnson’s breakout season, but the one that strikes me the most is the consistency. Johnson’s allowed more than 3 ER’s in just 2 of his 24 outings and posted just 1 disaster start all season.
Joey Votto:
This was bound to happen as Votto’s batting average was trending 30-40 points higher than it should all season long due to some favorable luck. Votto’s hit the rough patch we anticipated as he’s just 8-46 in August with 17 K’s (37%). The high K total is one indication he’s not seeing the ball well as is the fact he’s notched just 1 extra base hit in August. He’ll get things turned around eventually and hopefully the weekend against the Nationals will help do it. Unfortunately he started the weekend off with 3 more K’s in an 0-4 effort. Votto’s BHIP% still remains very high (.315) suggesting further regression in batting average (20-30 more points) would be possible, but my guess is Votto will snap out of things before that level of damage gets inflicted. Look for the pace to slow considerably from his big production/ab pace earlier in the season.
