Garrett Jones:
The regression continues for Garrett Jones who went 0-4 on Thursday with 4 K’s. For the month of August he’s now hitting just .239/.327/.457 after posting a .310/.361/.700 July. The nearly 300 point dip in OPS comes despite only slightly worse peripherals. Jones’ EYE in July was .47, while his EYE here in August is .40. Similarly the extremely strong XBH Rate of 18% in July remains pretty strong at over 13% here in August. Interestingly enough though his luck has stayed exactly the same (.200 BHIP% in both months). So how do we get a 277 point dip in OPS with just slight reduction in peripherals? Well for the most part the distribution of hits has changed dramatically. The HR/FB Rate which still sits at over 26% has declined as Jones XBH distribution has changed. After knocking out 56% of his XBH’s as HR’s, Jones is back down to a more normalized 33% rate. Fewer HR’s/FB will translate to fewer HR’s/AB and lesser overall value, however the current .239/.327/.457 line also seems low given Jones good XBH production. I’d expect a more normalized rate of .270/.355/.475 type line for Jones down the stretch, which would be more in line with his major league equivalents from the minors. The ride will be very bumpy for the free swinger, but the overall production should fall closer to that line giving him value in NL Only formats and a ride-the-hot-streak type guy in mixed leagues.
Jeff Baker:
Baker stayed hot on Thursday despite the rest of the Cubs lineup being ice-cold. He went 2-2 against Cliff Lee and drew two walks, scoring the Cubs only run. The Cubs have run into a nice string of LH’s of late which has given Baker more playing time (career .897 OPS against LHP) and he’s contributed going 11-23 in August with 3 XBH’s. He’s been batting down in the order and the Cubs have struggled as a whole so its only resulted in 3 Runs and 2 RBI’s, but knowing Lou Pineilla this will likely get Baker more playing time going forward as he tries to ride the hot hand. Both Schuyler and I have touched on Baker as a nice MI option for deeper leagues and I think we’re going to see a nice increase in value as he becomes the primary 2B in Chicago.
Cesar Carrillo:
I’m not really sure what the indication was to the Padres that Cesar Carrillo was ready for the next step to the majors, but I think it was pretty apparent on Thursday that he needs some more time. Carrillo lasted just 2 1/3 innings and surrendered 8 ER’s. He allowed 3 HR’s, hit 2 batters, walked 2, and gave up 4 hits. Every base-runner he allowed came home, which is some pretty poor luck but the 3 HR’s allowed, 2 walks, and 2 hit batsmen suggest a pretty clear indication he wasn’t ready. Perhaps the 1.75 WHIP in 3 AAA starts or the measly 4.2 K/9 at the AA level this year weren’t strong enough indicators hopefully this one is. Carrillo’s a former 1st rd pick who has stalled out at the AAA level in 2007 and 2008 and appears to have stalled out again here in 2009. Though his name may be familiar to fantasy owners because of his draft status and successful collegiate career at Miami, he shouldn’t be on their radars for immediate fantasy production (in any format).
Kevin Kouzmanoff:
Kouzmanoff stayed hot on Thursday with a 5-5 effort that included a 2B and 2 more RBI’s. He’s now 11-13 over the last 3 games with 2 2B’s and 5 RBI’s and is hitting .415/.479/.537 here in August after hitting .276/.295/.500 in July with 17 RBI’s. Kouzmanoff has been a better 2nd half player in his career (.785 OPS vs. .712 OPS) and though the peripherals continued to be awful in July (.14 EYE), he’s shown a nice start in August with a 1.00 EYE and just 4 K’s in his first 41 AB’s. He’s not a particularly valuable long-term asset but given the 2nd half production in the past and good lineup positioning, Kouzmanoff looks like a decent back-end 3B option in deeper mixed leagues. Surprisingly enough Kouzmanoff ranks in the Top 10 at 3B in RBI’s this year.
Dexter Fowler:
Fowler returned to the lineup from a bruised knee injury that had kept him out two games and returned in a big way. He went 4-5 with 4 2B’s, scoring 3 times. For the month he now has 10 Runs scored, 2 SB’s and 9 extra base hits in just 8 games. The strikeouts remain high (9 in 33 AB’s), but the continued strong extra base hit and walk rates keep his value elevated. He’s significantly underrated for Roto players being owned in just 15% of ESPN leagues, despite being on pace for 80 Runs and 35+ SB’s and improving in his power potential. I remain quite bullish on Fowler for the remainder of the season.
