Rajai Davis:
AL-only players certainly know Rajai Davis well as he’s been a cheap source of SB’s without much playing time over the last few years (52 SB’s last two seasons despite just 404 AB’s), but now its time for mixed leaguers to pay attention. With the A’s suffering some injuries at the 1B/DH slot, they’ve decided to ride the hot hand with Rajai Davis. Davis has now started 6 consecutive games and in just 37 July AB’s knocked in 16 Runs, scored 10, and swiped 6 bases. He’s always been a valuable fantasy guy per AB because of his elite speed but has never gotten consistent run because of his middling bat. Now that he’s getting AB’s all fantasy owners should take notice and those in need of SB production should spot start him as long as he’s starting.
Melky Cabrera:
Schuyler touched on Melky’s rising value earlier in the week with the injury to Brett Gardner noting the climbing extra base hit rate. This was on display on Sunday as he hit for the cycle and now raised his XBH Rate for the season to 10% from his 7.2% career rate. Some of this is the benefit of new Yankee stadium but at 24 this is also a nice growth spurt for a young player. Along with the power increase, Cabrera’s drastically raised his EYE to .87. He still hits a few too many balls on the ground, but Cabrera looks much more like a legitimate .290-75-15-75-8 hitter in the Yankees deep lineup and someone who can reasonably owned as a back-end OF option in all formats.
Mark Buehrle:
Buehrle’s impressive run was due for some significant regression as a .252 BHIP% heading into yesterday’s outing was a good 50 points below his 3 year average. On Sunday we saw some of this regression as Yankees hitters continued to find gaps in the defense racking up 12 hits in just 4 1/3 innings off of Buehrle. The result was 7 ER’s in those 4 1/3 innings. Buehrle continued to rely on contact and good command as he walked just 1 and didn’t strike out a batter in the outing. The disastrous start raised his ERA to 3.79 and his WHIP to 1.15. Given Buehrle’s declining K Rate and increased reliance on contact this season, there’s room for further regression in the WHIP as he trends back towards his usual high 3’s ERA and mid 1.2’s-1.3’s WHIP.
James Shields:
Few pitchers have had worse luck this season than James Shields. Despite pitching in front of one of the best offenses in all of baseball, Shields ranks in the Top 10 worst SPs in baseball in terms of run support. On Sunday he was fantastic yet again throwing 6 no-hit innings before succumbing to more bad luck on the defensive side of the ball in the 7th inning. He finished allowing just 1 ER on 2 Hits and 4 BB’s, while striking out 6 but since the Rays failed to score it was enough to saddle him with his 8th loss of the season and just a 6-8 record. In addition to the poor run support, Shields BHIP% has been abnormally high this season so while his skills look very similar to the last few years (6.15 K/9, 2.17 BB/9), his WHIP has risen 0.15 pts. As the season wears on and luck hopefully evens out, Shields should find himself in the W column a few more times along with some better luck on his hits allowed, thereby lowering his WHIP.
Clay Buchholz:
Even 14 runs of support weren’t enough for Buchholz to pick up the win on Sunday. Staked to a 7-0 lead in the 3rd inning, Buchholz promptly gave up a 6 spot and despite the Red Sox responding with 7 more in the top of the 4th, Buchholz was pulled in the 5th inning after allowing 2 more base-runners. He finished the afternoon allowing 9 hits, 4 BB’s, and 7 ER’s in just 4 innings. Buchholz has averaged just 4.83 IP in his 5 starts and with Tim Wakefield nearing a return his stay in the rotation may be coming to an end after one more turn. Buchholz continues to show good GB Rates and decent K Rates but his fear of pitching to contact has led to disastrous results. When assessing young pitchers we often talk about the jump from A ball to AA being the highest in all of baseball, but I continue to preach the highest jump is from AAA to the AL East. Young pitchers in other divisions have a far easier learning curve than those coming up in the AL East, so while young pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, or even Joba Chamberlain may struggle initially to adapt it’s unfair to compare them to counterparts pitching in far inferior divisions that aren’t littered with hitters’ parks. Buchholz remains an elite prospect, but it will take time for him to adapt to the huge jump in competition and for fantasy owners in yearly leagues, it isn’t worth the wait.
