BJ Upton:
The entire fantasy community has been giving BJ Upton a free pass for most of the season. The shoulder injury and the late start to the season allowed writers to give a free pass during the first few months as Upton was getting his timing. A big June got writers back on board with Upton washing their hands of the slow start and declaring Upton back, but he slumped mightily in July and looks utterly lost again in August (.208/.269/.208). He’s been dropped in the order and while the 66 Runs and 35 SB’s on the season have value for Roto players, those in shallow H2H points based leagues need to consider jumping ship with Upton. For the year his K Rate is up, his XBH Rate is down and the peripherals are getting progressively worse. Moving down in the lineup is only going to hurt his value in the counting categories (Runs, SB’s) he was providing value in before. In shallow pts based formats I think he’s droppable and in most Roto leagues he needs to be benched until he gets things figured out. He’s currently in the midst of a 6-37 slump that includes 0 extra base hits, 2 walks and 12 K’s. He’s an utter mess right now.
Derek Holland:
For the 2nd time in his last 3 outings, Derek Holland was absolutely dominant. He shut down the Angels in a complete game effort, needing just 96 pitches. He showed great command throwing 76% of his pitches for strikes and limited the Angels to just 3 hits and 1 BB, while striking out 8. Unusually for Holland his peripherals have actually ticked up for him as a starter where his K Rate has bumped to 8.1/9. He’s shown good command this year walking just 2.97/9 and has actually pitched through some poor luck (.320 BHIP%, 0.66 Strand Rate). As with any young pitcher there will be some bumps along the road, but Holland is showing nice upside from a peripherals perspective. He’ll get the struggling Red Sox offense at home next week.
Brett Anderson:
I couldn’t be more proud of Brett Anderson. Back in June when Anderson’s ERA stood at 5.77, I noted the significant improvements in his peripherals and urged owners to take a second look. I’ve scooped him up since in most of my leagues and have felt like a proud father as he’s come of age. Since then he’s pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 8.7 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. The peripherals continue to be magnificent as the results have only been impeded by poor run support and bullpen help. On Sunday Anderson cruised through 6 shutout innings before allowing 3 Hits and 1 Run to start the 6th. The bullpen came in and promptly allowed the remaining 2 runs to score, but held the Royals down long enough that he could pick up his 6th win of the season. He’ll get the White Sox at home in his next outing and should be active in all lineups.
Luke Hochevar:
I’ve never been a big fan of Luke Hochevar because of weak minor league K Rates and stuff that didn’t seem like it would translate to the major league level. A few weeks back he burst back onto fantasy owners’ radar with the big 13 K game against Texas but I thought it was another blip on the radar screen. However, the K Rate success has continued since as he’s struck out 18 in his last 18 innings, while walking just 6. Throw in a good GB Rate and there might be something here. It seems like I’m always contrarian on Hochevar telling owners to sell when they’re buying and buying when they’re selling. While the improved peripherals have come against some struggling offenses (SEA, BAL, OAK) anyone with a 48:9 K:BB Rate over the last 43 1/3 innings deserves attention.
Scott Kazmir:
After a few steps in the right direction, Kazmir took a gigantic step backwards on Sunday. Against a punchless Seattle lineup and in a park that should suit Kazmir’s skills perfectly, he was rocked for 7 ER’s on 9 hits and 2 walks in just 4 1/3 innings. Obviously the peripherals suggest some bad luck is involved as evidenced by the .64 Strand Rate, but the real issues here are a loss of velocity. Kazmir’s average fastball has dropped 1.5 mph over last season and 2 mph from his peak velocity in 2007. Without the velocity he’s become rather ordinary in generating strikeouts and without strikeouts, his middling command and reliance on FB’s becomes a disastrous recipe. He’s a different pitcher this year than he’s been before and without that velocity he’s not worth owning.
