Deolis Guerra - RHP Minnesota Twins
Yes, he's still around ... and he's still only 20. Deolis Guerra came to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade and I talked at the time about how I feel that despite the fact they are very good talent evaluators, the Twins seemed to buy into an over-hyped prospect in Guerra. I wrote that they may have over estimated their considerable development skills. Perhaps I underestimated them.
Guerra was the "Next Big Changeup" when he was signed out of Venezuela in 2005 at 16 years old. His change is outstanding too, with Pedro-esque fade at times. And oh ya, he could hit 96 with his fastball if needed, and he could add and subtract a foot to make it seem like he has several fastballs. Despite good stuff Guerra had shown limited punch out ability and a lack of command. Perhaps he was just bored.
After parts of 4 seasons in A+, Guerra seems to have put some things together in AA where he's been strong in 3 starts. The Twins started making some mechanical changes after the trade and it took some time, but the result has been that Guerra's delivery is much more consistent. And guess what? He's striking out guys. The mechanical adjustments have also helped Guerra maximize his fastball velocity, helping both his fastball and change play up.
True, these 3 starts (4 appearances) in AA have included a 12-K outing against Portland (7 IP) which has puffed up his K rate in our small AA sample, but the premise remains valid. The Twins seems to have Guerra on the right track and he's more than holding his own AA so far...again... all at the age of 20.
Welcome back to the prospect radar ...
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2006 A 6 7 2.20 81.2 7.1 4.1 0.3 .204 1.18 2007 A+ 2 6 4.01 89.2 6.6 2.5 0.9 .240 1.17 2008 A+ 11 9 5.47 130.0 4.9 4.9 0.8 .273 1.61 2009 A+ 6 8 4.69 86.1 5.9 2.6 0.6 .281 1.39 2009 AA 3 0 3.52 23.0 9.0 2.3 0.7 .245 1.17
Jordan Lyles - RHP Houston Astros
The Astros' supplemental pick in 2008 has flown a bit under the prospect radar while quietly toiling quite effectively in the otherwise lacking Houston system. Baseball America was paying attention however, ranking him as the Astros' 6th prospect which may amount to damning him with faint praise.
The 6-4/185 right hander passed on a football scholarship (WR) to the University of South Carolina to play pro baseball. His solid and clean mechanics produce a low-to-mid 90s fastball which he backs with the beginnings of a decent curve and a usable change.
Jordan has been fairly dominant in A ball this year fanning nearly 11/9 with a sub-2.5 BB rate. His OBA is less dominant at .247, but that's puffed by a .355 BHIP%.
Lyles needs to rivet down his delivery, especially on his secondary pitches. Those secondary pitches are the key to his ceiling. It doesn't look like Jordan's curve will peak as a plus pitch but if he can make something out of his change, his fastball appears to be good enough, or appears to have the potential to be good enough to get him to the top half of the rotation.
The rubber will meet the road in AA, perhaps by the end of the year which is remarkable considering that Lyles will end the year as an 18-year-old. As he matures physically 10-15 pounds of muscle could add a foot, and life, to his fastball which, added to his natural downward plane, could make him very formidable. If he can keep hitters off balance with quality secondary stuff he has the chance to be a very good pitcher in the NL.
Right now you can't project him as more than a good #3 MLB pitcher, but I will be curious to see what we think by the time he can legally buy a beer.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B-Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 R 3 3 3.99 49.2 11.6 1.8 0.7 .239 1.09 2008 A- 0 0 6.35 5.2 6.4 11.1 3.2 .305 2.47 2009 A- 5 8 3.25 99.2 10.9 2.4 0.4 .247 1.19
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