Alcides Escobar - Shortstop, Milwaukee Brewers
Alcides Escobar, Baseball America's Top Brewers prospect will be playing SS for the World Team in the Futures game coming up in St Louis on July 12th. The 6-1, 175 Venezuela native was signed as a 17 year old in 2003 by Epy Guerrero who has only added to his distinguished track record with this one.
Escobar is a pure shortstop who not only makes the plays, he does it fluidly, gliding to balls then unleashing a strong and accurate arm. He will be a regular on Web Gems when he reaches the majors, which shouldn't be long. Escobar could do so on his defense alone and it looked for a while like he may have to. But his development as a hitter the last two seasons has been significant. Last year saw him mature physically and that resulted in 8 HRs in AA, more than double the HRs he had hit in his previous 900+ pro ABs, including 226 ABs in AA the previous season. It also resulted in an 80 point leap in his SLG% over his 2007 AA tour to .434 which is quite acceptable for a player with his defensive and speed skills.
Speed? ... How's 50 SBs over three levels in 2007, and 34 last year in AA, not to mention 27 in AAA this year in 320 ABs.
Escobar's contact skills are good. he's fanned less than 17% of the time throughout his minor league run, but zone recognition has been a bit of a problem. His sub-6 BB rates have suppressed his OBP which is keeping him from being the leadoff candidate everyone would like him to be. Escobar's AVG has been good at his last two stops, but his .328 in AA last year had the tailwind of a .375 BHIP% and this year his .297 is being floated by a .349 BHIP%. He needs to start thinking more like a leadoff hitter and use his contact skills and speed to get on base, supplementing that with more walks than he takes now.
J.J. Hardy blocks Escobar's path in Milwaukee for the moment but the Brewers are going to be faced with a decision here soon. Escobar is ready to go and the Brewers need to figure out how to play both players or deal one.
From a fantasy standpoint, Escobar will steal a lot of bases out of the SS slot which is tremendously valuable. Should he become selective enough to hit at the top of the order he'll score runs, he won't sink your team's average, and he's going to chip in a dong every once in a while. You can't ask for a lot more than that.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - ASeas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2006 A+ 347 12 2 28 .259 5.2 15.9 .299 .308 2007 A+ 268 11 0 18 .325 2.5 13.1 .345 .377 2007 AA 226 10 1 4 .283 4.6 15.9 .314 .354 2008 AA 546 37 8 34 .328 5.4 15.0 .363 .434 2009 AAA 320 28 3 27 .297 5.9 16.3 .345 .419
Nick Weglarz - Outfielder Cleveland Indians
Progress has been slow for Canadian slugger Nick Weglarz, the Tribe's 3rd round pick in 2005. Injuries have been the major culprit as Nick missed almost all of 2006 with a broken hamate bone but followed that with a strong season in A-ball in 2007.
Not yet 22, Nick has plenty of time to catch up. His 6-3, 245 build shows incredible power potential and he already lifts the ball with backspin, a trait that sometimes takes some time to come in with sluggers. What separates him from other large slugger types however is his plate discipline and pitch recognition. So far pitchers cannot get him to chase breaking pitches and he became even more selective with his jump to High-A last season, as he cut his K rate nearly 9% to a very acceptable 20.8%.
This year, with another jump to AA Nick's AVG has dropped despite a neutral .277 BHIP% but keep in mind his .272 AVG in High-A was produced with a favorable .321 BHIP%. The thing to focus on is that he upped his already healthy BB rate despite the jump, and he's maintained most of his K rate gains. He's also started to ramp up his SLG% again with 12 HRs and 28 XBH in just 241 ABs.
Nick has mechanical hurdles to jump in his swing as the O's would like to see him take a more direct route to the ball and quiet his swing. Given his zone command and pitch recognition skills he should produce a higher average than he does. His sheer size is a bit of an issue too and there's a question whether he can maintain enough mobility to handle left field.
Nick projects as a prototypical slugger, who can produce seasons of 20 homers or more with a .260-.265 average, but his plate discipline and his promise of physical maturity suggests a higher ceiling. This is one to keep an eye on as we head towards September.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A-Seas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2007 A 434 51 23 1 .279 15.9 29.3 .399 .502 2008 A+ 375 35 10 9 .272 15.9 20.8 .396 .432 2009 AA 241 28 12 2 .249 16.3 23.2 .378 .473
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